UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

[ExitLUPin]

Volk Max ends in KO/TKO +230

I'm gonna play this. Max is gonna have a different approach he's saying it's not going past 3 and I've never seen him this fired up fight week. Volk is way too good making adjustments midfight he's the best of anyone right now at it and it's incredibly tough to win rounds or decisions against him maybe harder than any other fighter now. You have to finish him. Max surprised him with the kicking early and he still fought his way around that. Short of Max mixing in TDs like against Yair I don't think there's anything tactically he can change anymore. IMO he's going to fight him like he fought Aldo bite on the mouth piece, take 2 to land 1 that he REALLY sits on to add more power. He's gonna draw Volk into a brawl and Max is the only one who's hurt the other through 50 mins so he has confidence in his chin and cardio over Volk. I think Volk will oblige and someone is getting knocked out. If this is another drawn out technical chess match that goes the distance I'll be shocked.

 

[Chris Wang]

Volk Max ends in KO/TKO +230

I'm gonna play this. Max is gonna have a different approach he's saying it's not going past 3 and I've never seen him this fired up fight week. Volk is way too good making adjustments midfight he's the best of anyone right now at it and it's incredibly tough to win rounds or decisions against him maybe harder than any other fighter now. You have to finish him. Max surprised him with the kicking early and he still fought his way around that. Short of Max mixing in TDs like against Yair I don't think there's anything tactically he can change anymore. IMO he's going to fight him like he fought Aldo bite on the mouth piece, take 2 to land 1 that he REALLY sits on to add more power. He's gonna draw Volk into a brawl and Max is the only one who's hurt the other through 50 mins so he has confidence in his chin and cardio over Volk. I think Volk will oblige and someone is getting knocked out. If this is another drawn out technical chess match that goes the distance I'll be shocked.

I agree, Max is acting out of character, which is a minus against Volk this time. Volk ain't no joke, Max can't go out there and keep taking that much damage to the head... guy is gonna be in a wheelchair when he's 50 at this point. Volk finishes him if Max doesn't use fight IQ here.

 

[PuertoRican]

Drakes bound to hit one of his big bets. Anytime soon now..
But if Izzy were to lose I wouldnt be surprised if he drops uneventful dec now with the way his last three have went.

I think it's highly unlikely that Adesanya loses by decision. Cannonier is KO or bust, imo.

Volk Max ends in KO/TKO +230

I think Alex vs. Max ends ITD as well, but the odds currently aren't good enough for me to bet that outcome on BAS.

I am definitely avoiding all O4.5, Alex decision, Max decision, and Fight Goes The Distance plays.

I don't have any bets on this fight, and will focus on live betting it, unless some good props pop up on BAS within the next 8 hours, which is unlikely since the prop options always suck on that sports book.

 

[mkess101]

My onlly thoughts on Caesar's, at least from a few years ago, is that the odds aren't very good. You can find better lines other places so when I went to Nevada a lot I would walk to a different casino. I don't know about the particular rules.

I checked BFO and for the bets I like most Caesars has the best odds LOL. You could still be right overall though.

 

[PuertoRican]

I checked BFO and for the bets I like most Caesars has the best odds LOL. You could still be right overall though.

I used to have 4 Vegas sports book apps on my phone at once, but stopped using Caesars two years ago cuz it was a shittier copy of the Wynn app. No idea what it's like now.

In 2022, the best sports book in Vegas is Circa, by far. You can deposit money into the app from a different state like California, and have those funds waiting for you whenever you get to Nevada or a bordering city that will let you make a bet on the app, like in Lake Tahoe. Also, let's say you are in Nevada in January and hit a massive parlay after you go home, you can withdraw the money from your Circa app into your bank account that's connected to the card on file.

Circa allows you to parlay multiple regular props like decision, KO/TKO, and submission. MGM allows you to parlay only one of the regular props with other money lines.

The two apps you want in Vegas are Circa for it's great lines and props and sometimes live bets on the main cards of UFC cards, and William Hill for the ability to live bet most UFC cards (WH offers real live betting like on BAS -- anytime within a fight).

 

[PuertoRican]

Donald Cerrone bettors:

It's unlikely that Cerrone finishes Miller in Round 1, right? Especially since R1 is when Cerrone is usually at his slowest, and Miller is at his best.

If you were going to bet Cerrone, wouldn't a bet on the O1.5 -145 make more sense?

Also, Miller hasn't been gassing after 1.5 rounds like he used to. Once he figured out how to fight with his disease, he has looked good for 2 rounds, imo.

 

[mkess101]

I used to have 4 Vegas sports book apps on my phone at once, but stopped using Caesars two years ago cuz it was a shittier copy of the Wynn app. No idea what it's like now.

In 2022, the best sports book in Vegas is Circa, by far. You can deposit money into the app from a different state like California, and have those funds waiting for you whenever you get to Nevada or a bordering city that will let you make a bet on the app, like in Lake Tahoe. Also, let's say you are in Nevada in January and hit a massive parlay after you go home, you can withdraw the money from your Circa app into your bank account that's connected to the card on file.

Circa allows you to parlay multiple regular props like decision, KO/TKO, and submission. MGM allows you to parlay only one of the regular props with other money lines.

The two apps you want in Vegas are Circa for it's great lines and props and sometimes live bets on the main cards of UFC cards, and William Hill for the ability to live bet most UFC cards (WH offers real live betting like on BAS -- anytime within a fight).

Good deal. But I'm gonna be in Illinois for this one.

 

[rille31]

Donald Cerrone bettors:

It's unlikely that Cerrone finishes Miller in Round 1, right? Especially since R1 is when Cerrone is usually at his slowest, and Miller is at his best.

If you were going to bet Cerrone, wouldn't a bet on the O1.5 -145 make more sense?

Also, Miller hasn't been gassing after 1.5 rounds like he used to. Once he figured out how to fight with his disease, he has looked good for 2 rounds, imo.

Maybe but Ceronne ml is +165 not -145 and a first round finish is also possible.

 

[Tatra]

Lawler & Cerrone both look in great shape.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

So I have sizable bet on barber. If alpha barber shows up, the same girl that fought de la rosa, she will smash eye easily. 30-27.

the problem is she isn’t with alpha male anymore. She switched camps, again. If she goes out there and strikes with eye it will be a close fight.

I should hedge with eye Dec +300. I have barber at -200, But I don’t want to.

 

[Dooze]

I think it's highly unlikely that Adesanya loses by decision. Cannonier is KO or bust, imo.

I agree for the most part, I think the only time I could see Cannoneer winning a decision would be if he hurts Adesanya in a few rounds and Israel survives but the judges give him the damage edge rather than volume. I think I'd probably give him a 5-10% chance of winning a decision though and not sure what that'd equate to odds wise.

In terms of Max/Alex I think it goes similar to second fight, very close and probably 48-47 SD either way. I'm a huge Max fan but Alex is fantastic at controlling fights and winning rounds. Max will need to take it to him and make Alex fight on the back foot, sit down on his punches and hurt Volk.

Both guys have no quit in them, I'm expecting big shots to be landed and at least one of them to be hurt at some point but ultimately both to survive. Either way it's going to be a hell of a fight, if Volk wins again I think it'll be difficult to argue against him being 145 GOAT. He's already up there but 3 wins against Max who has looked so dominant against almost everybody else.

It's insane that both of these fellas are around at their prime at the same time. Imagine a prime Aldo around at the same time, it would have been insane.

 

[JC615]

So I have sizable bet on barber. If alpha barber shows up, the same girl that fought de la rosa, she will smash eye easily. 30-27.

the problem is she isn’t with alpha male anymore. She switched camps, again. If she goes out there and strikes with eye it will be a close fight.

I should hedge with eye Dec +300. I have barber at -200, But I don’t want to.

Interesting article I found.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ot...-the-biggest-is-already-behind-her/ar-AAYDQGC

I see Barber is getting steamed. She's now at -334. The best thing to do during this fight is go burn a doobie and/or smoke a bowl and rock a piss imo.

 

[PuertoRican]

So I have sizable bet on barber. If alpha barber shows up, the same girl that fought de la rosa, she will smash eye easily. 30-27.

the problem is she isn’t with alpha male anymore. She switched camps, again. If she goes out there and strikes with eye it will be a close fight.

I should hedge with eye Dec +300. I have barber at -200, But I don’t want to.

Deposit some money into BAS. Jessica Eye decision is +400.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Interesting article I found.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ot...-the-biggest-is-already-behind-her/ar-AAYDQGC

I see Barber is getting steamed. She's now at -334. The best thing to do during this fight is go burn a doobie and/or smoke a bowl and rock a piss imo.

She sounds like a train wreck

 

[Stat_Collector]

Deposit some money into BAS. Jessica Eye decision is +400.

sorry man i cant get passed the loss by Calvillo. such a small girl. and i think Macy beats Calvillo and Joanna. I know styles make fights, but there is nothing i see here , Macy is a younger version of eye. maybe im wrong but it just feels that way, eye is headed to Bellator after this or PFL. I have the fight to go the distance. that’s about as much value i can get here.

im not buying her excuse either about a parasite.

 

[sonhow]

I think it's highly unlikely that Adesanya loses by decision. Cannonier is KO or bust, imo.

I think Alex vs. Max ends ITD as well, but the odds currently aren't good enough for me to bet that outcome on BAS.

I am definitely avoiding all O4.5, Alex decision, Max decision, and Fight Goes The Distance plays.

I don't have any bets on this fight, and will focus on live betting it, unless some good props pop up on BAS within the next 8 hours, which is unlikely since the prop options always suck on that sports book.

Jared by ko or bust is the likely result for him I ageee.
However sometimes expect the unexpected

 

[The Disasters]

So I have sizable bet on barber. If alpha barber shows up, the same girl that fought de la rosa, she will smash eye easily. 30-27.

the problem is she isn’t with alpha male anymore. She switched camps, again.

Where did you see that? I've been wondering when she would switch teams and if she would transfer to a big team to be a small fish or the opposite.

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.

 

[SherdogWasNeverMyFriend]

I always felt that Miller would steamroll Cerrone nowadays. He's an easy side for me. Other than that, Miller/Cerrone FDGTD, Dricus Du Plessis (Omari was tagging Tavares in his last fight and you don't want to be tagged by DDP), Riddell/Turner over 1.5, Strickland by decision and over 1.5, Volk/Max over 2.5/3.5, Adesanya/Cannonier over 2.5.

Less confident: Muniz (he should roll but line is pretty bad), Barber (same shit), Munhoz (those leg kicks will hurt) and Volkanovski ML.

 

[Guld]

@Card Thanks for posting the pics here. I appreciate you.

So Izzy got a haircut on Embedded and Drake put a big bet on him.
Should I get a loan and bet on Cannonier? haha