UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

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UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
Saturday July 2, 2022 at 06:00 PM ET

https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFC276&src=typed_query&f=live

Jared Cannonier:

"I’m not a 38-year-old UFC fighter, I’m a level 38 fooking badass. People perceive the 20s as their zenith, but that’s when people do the most stupid-ass shit. Youth doesn’t equate to wisdom. I feel great now and I’m so much smarter. I’m growing older and getting better. I want to be a swole-ass, chiseled 80-year-old with a gray ‘fro. I’ve acquired enough wisdom to know I’m in this position and I’ve got work to do. I’ve taken the bumps, the bruises, and the losses. I’m here to shoot for the stars, to try for this win. If I fall short, it’s a lesson to learn—not a reason to quit… I’m coming to throw some heat, make him miss, neutralize his game plan, and impose mine. We’ll see what Israel brings out of me. My goal is to get the win as quickly as possible.”





 
interesting card.

im interested to see what Muniz decision line is and Uriah ko .

A lot of bookmakers are going to assume Muniz gets the sub here but i think hall is athletic enough to dodge his subs and either lose by ground ctrl or knock out muniz who is chinny.
 
Think I'll start the night with Du Plessis KO line depending on how it looks (if it's less than +170 I won't touch it). Think Clark at her current price is pretty nice too, Julija just hunts for one move and is mediocre everywhere else.

Tempted to play Green given how lackluster Garry has been compared to the hype. Gabriel might crowd and tag him hard.
Stat_Collector said:
interesting card.

im interested to see what Muniz decision line is and Uriah ko .

A lot of bookmakers are going to assume Muniz gets the sub here but i think hall is athletic enough to dodge his subs and either lose by ground ctrl or knock out muniz who is chinny.
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I'm passing on the fight for that reason, but Andre does have a knack for nailing that armbar from the back. Wouldn't be surprised if Uriah tried to explode and got caught.

Also, what am I missing with Riddell? Seems like he's the side against Turner unless Jalin tries to wrestle.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Think I'll start the night with Du Plessis KO line depending on how it looks (if it's less than +170 I won't touch it). Think Clark at her current price is pretty nice too, Julija just hunts for one move and is mediocre everywhere else.

Tempted to play Green given how lackluster Garry has been compared to the hype. Gabriel might crowd and tag him hard.

I'm passing on the fight for that reason, but Andre does have a knack for nailing that armbar from the back. Wouldn't be surprised if Uriah tried to explode and got caught.

Also, what am I missing with Riddell? Seems like he's the side against Turner unless Jalin tries to wrestle.
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gonna value play it , im interested in hall dec/ko/ for big plus odds or muniz dec that can go for 400+ make a few small parlays

as far as uriah getting caught, he’s gonna be grappling defensively not offensive like soaza. muniz looked human against antonio. and hall looked defensively sound against shoe face.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Think I'll start the night with Du Plessis KO line depending on how it looks (if it's less than +170 I won't touch it). Think Clark at her current price is pretty nice too, Julija just hunts for one move and is mediocre everywhere else.

Tempted to play Green given how lackluster Garry has been compared to the hype. Gabriel might crowd and tag him hard.

I'm passing on the fight for that reason, but Andre does have a knack for nailing that armbar from the back. Wouldn't be surprised if Uriah tried to explode and got caught.

Also, what am I missing with Riddell? Seems like he's the side against Turner unless Jalin tries to wrestle.
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i taped riddel turner . im passing on that one. turner is dangerous all around. and i dont think the prop bets for Riddel will be that juicy. a ko prop could be nice but i dont think turner is easy walk in the park here.
 
Can't not have a play on Munhoz's leg kicks against glass legged O'Malley.

Also playing Robbie. I think he's too technical for Barberena and won't be bothered by pressure.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Can't not have a play on Munhoz's leg kicks against glass legged O'Malley.

Also playing Robbie. I think he's too technical for Barberena and won't be bothered by pressure.
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Look at all of the pure strikers O'Malley has faced in the UFC: http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/b50a426a33da0012

Munhoz isn't known for his take downs, but I think he can get O'Malley down. Munhoz also has the ability to spam a lot of low kicks and punches, has the submission threat, and can close the distance to make it ugly.

Without a lot of distance, O'Malley can't do anything in this fight. He either catches Munhoz early, or this will look like a spot where you wish you would've bet the +220 underdog who is more skilled in MMA, has more striking output, has the BJJ advantage, has the leg kick advantage, has fought the best guys, and is actually taking a step down in competition against a guy who is still unproven against guys who won't strike with him for the entire fight.

I assume Munhoz will do whatever it takes to win this fight, and ATT will create a good game plan against a guy who has weak legs and can't do anything when his back is on the mat.

At the very least, I'd recommend a small bet on Munhoz +220 pre-fight, and then live bet Munhoz if O'Malley can't clearly dominate/finish him in Round 1.

As for Robbie Lawler, I think he's going to wrestle in this fight. He hasn't used it in awhile, but he can clinch and wrestle just fine against Barberena, especially since it's Barb's weakness. Lawler trains with Sanford and will probably have a good game plan versus a sloppy striker with a glaring weakness on the ground, and his problem of eating too many punches and having weak cardio. I'm thinking Lawler by decision.
 
Why is Du Plessis a dog and Garry only slight favorite? I like the odds on those guys.
 
The Eagle said:
Why is Du Plessis a dog and Garry only slight favorite? I like the odds on those guys.
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I'm assuming people liked Green's fight against Lainesse where he showed excellent cardio to get a win after Lainesse emptied the gas tank.

I don't see Garry emptying the gas tank like that though.
 
The Eagle said:
Why is Du Plessis a dog and Garry only slight favorite? I like the odds on those guys.
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Im with you on Dricus(although i think the odds are fair) , but not Garry. Garry was getting touched too much for my liking against Weeks. Gabe has good cardio , watch his fight against Daniel Rodriguez side by side with Ian vs Weeks, and you'll see that Ian was just surviving with his jabs and straight kicks, doing the bare minimum in that third round. While Gabe was landing on D-rod who is better than Ian, and landing HARD. I would bet Gabe gets him out of there in the third round if he comes in the same way he did to D-rod. Gabe green has much better pressure game than Weeks who bloodied up Ian's nose, and also Jordan Williams wobbled him early. Im gonna be all over Gabe Ko prop and 3rd round stoppage if that is an option.
 
So far I like Robbie as a slight favorite, Munhoz and Holloway as a sizeable underdogs..

As good as Turner has looked I think I’d take Riddell as a small underdog, too. Riddell is one hell of a striker and has had tough, high level fights. Turner is as dangerous as anyone, but there’s always two sides in a coin. His wild style leaves openings and I think Riddell could capitalize on those. Riddell will be the shorter guy and on a reach disadvantage, but I think he’ll do just fine as he has excellent training partners (City Kickboxing / Tiger MT).

Overall it looks like a good card for betting and excellent card for some good fights!
 
Taking these guys straight up, I’ll be happy if I hit around 50% as that’ll be a nice profit:

Holloway
Strickland
Munhoz
Riddell
Lawler
Cerrone
Tavares

I can’t believe Cerrone is this big of a dog.
 
Regarding Cerrone vs. Miller 2:

Both guys are old and shopworn but give me the guy who was a much better/more dynamic fighter in his prime who also happens to have a much better gas tank. I realize Miller’s looked better recently but he’s been fighting some pretty subpar guys in Gonzalez and Motta. Cerrone at +165 all day.
 
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