UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

[lifeisgood12345]

Hoping that Laflare gets closer to evens. Dude's put the grind on just about everybody successfully, even managed it for the first round against Cowboy before getting caught insanely hard. Martin isn't BR Cowboy in athleticism or power, and got grinded by OAM. Nakamura's not a particularly good win, IMO.

Cowboy does dumb shit and ends up on bottom vs guys like joe merritt even. Its not the biggest deal that LaFlare won round 1

Martin had a terrible weight cut vs OAM, lost a split decision, and LaFlare isn’t even better than OAM.

I’m not convinced LaFlare is significantly better than Nakamura. Nobody has dominated Nakamura like that— he even gave Zaleski dos Santos and Breese quite a few issues but Martin ran thru him.

 

[Gugabe]

Cowboy does dumb shit and ends up on bottom vs guys like joe merritt even. Its not the biggest deal that LaFlare won round 1

Martin had a terrible weight cut vs OAM, lost a split decision, and LaFlare isn’t even better than OAM.

I’m not convinced LaFlare is significantly better than Nakamura. Nobody has dominated Nakamura like that— he even gave Zaleski dos Santos and Breese quite a few issues but Martin ran thru him.

I don't think Zaleski's very good. Dude just spent a round under Luigi from Mario on 15 mins notice after being picked from the crowd. LaFlare's a better takedown dude than OAM, IMO. Not necessarily a better grappler, but it doesn't take overwhelming skill to maintain ride time.

Nakamura's also one of those eldery Asian tough guys, and they just seem to fall off cliffs when the time comes.

 

[Yotsuya]

Nakamura's also one of those eldery Asian tough guys, and they just seem to fall off cliffs when the time comes.

Because of the Nakamura's weak performance it's hard to figure out where Martin is at right now after going up to 170 and training at ATT. He's clearly the fighter with the upside. Laflare on the other hand said in recent interview, that he's getting content at being the "Decisionator".

 

[Gugabe]

Because of the Nakamura's weak performance it's hard to figure out where Martin is at right now after going up to 170 and training at ATT. He's clearly the fighter with the upside. Laflare on the other hand said in recent interview, that he's getting content at being the "Decisionator".

True. Martin's probably got more chance of shocking us. I'm not playing it at current price, but I'll take a swing on Laflare dec if it gets to +100 or better.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

True. Martin's probably got more chance of shocking us. I'm not playing it at current price, but I'll take a swing on Laflare dec if it gets to +100 or better.

Training with guys like Colby and DP will help for sure Tony win the fight.
Come on, La Flare looks old and doesnt even fight like a fighter. He is a fuckin point safe dec fighter, Tony has all the tools to win this fight.
UFC will cut Laflare after this shit.

 

[Gugabe]

Training with guys like Colby and DP will help for sure Tony win the fight.
Come on, La Flare looks old and doesnt even fight like a fighter. He is a fuckin point safe dec fighter, Tony has all the tools to win this fight.
UFC will cut Laflare after this shit.

LaFlare's not easy to finish, and I don't trust Martin's TDD. The only real question in this fight is whether Martin stays standing, since LaFlare will doggedly pursue that takedown and Martin's not a huge finisher.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

LaFlare's not easy to finish, and I don't trust Martin's TDD. The only real question in this fight is whether Martin stays standing, since LaFlare will doggedly pursue that takedown and Martin's not a huge finisher.

Martin doesn't have great takedown defense but he does have great reversals. LaFlare getting a few takedowns will not move the needle much if he can't hold position

Martin is obviously going to be the better striker who lands more volume + has at least a small shot at KO. His punches have more pop at 170.

 

[theTKDguy]

Laflare by dec

 

[Gugabe]

Martin doesn't have great takedown defense but he does have great reversals. LaFlare getting a few takedowns will not move the needle much if he can't hold position

Martin is obviously going to be the better striker who lands more volume + has at least a small shot at KO. His punches have more pop at 170.

I just don't like to rely on guys with reversals and subs off their back. Judges can be really random when it comes to rewarding that kind of work, and it's just not something I want to be relying on when guys can try for that sort of thing, and end up under siide control for 4 mins easily.

 

[GrantSorenson]

I don't think Zaleski's very good. Dude just spent a round under Luigi from Mario on 15 mins notice after being picked from the crowd. LaFlare's a better takedown dude than OAM, IMO. Not necessarily a better grappler, but it doesn't take overwhelming skill to maintain ride time.

Nakamura's also one of those eldery Asian tough guys, and they just seem to fall off cliffs when the time comes.

Agreed on Zaleski.

 

[zeckdo]

Bookmaker offers a lot of props as well closer to the fights, but 5Dimes has props earlier than any other book and some props that no other book has, so I would suggest keeping accounts on both.

Been reading about a lot of scams involving 5dimes, I also had a fraudulent charge on my card this week.

 

[Yotsuya]

Been reading about a lot of scams involving 5dimes, I also had a fraudulent charge on my card this week.

I’ve been curious about the weird odds that keep popping up at bestfightodds. Do you know about them/have a link for more info?

 

[Stunna77]

Been reading about a lot of scams involving 5dimes, I also had a fraudulent charge on my card this week.

What kind of scams? I have quite a bit of $$ sitting on there in fear of getting limited if I withdraw.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Anyone else on Formiga?

 

[Lightbringer]

I do not see why people think Conor and Khabib is close.

Khabib is going to get Conor down at will, his versatility in TDS are way too much, this is going to be a dominant beatdown. Conor's only chance is a ko and he will probably close at even money. You guys really think Conor kos khabib 50 percent of the time? I sure as hell don't. I will be SMASHING khabib's line.

 

[Stunna77]

Officially on Quinones at +255. O'Malley has very legit striking and could possibly finish Quin. Hell he more than likely will drop him at some point as he has shown to be hittable and get dropped often, however he has shown great recovery. Why I like Quin here is his ability to pressure, hit body lock tds from the clinch and throw solid volume for the full 15 min, in addition to being a fucking scrapper. He rarely loses rounds given this style and will 100% fight for your money. O'Malley has had extremely favorable matchups thus far in the UFC, including on DWTNCS. Ware managed to take a round off of O'Malley by simply not going away. He pressured him and outvolumed him to take rd2 across the board. The other thing that stood out to me in that fight is how easily he was able to back O'Malley into the cage. If Ware had an ounce of wrestling/grappling he could have hit easy tds. He specifically got O'Malley into positions that Quin uses to set up his body lock/trip takedown. Quin has succecced in taking down every UFC opponent to date, so unless he gets finished early he is going to put O'Malley in some precarious positions, we shall see how the flashy young striker handles it.

 

[null]

Been reading about a lot of scams involving 5dimes, I also had a fraudulent charge on my card this week.

I am sure that is frustrating, but I would never recommend using a credit card with any sportsbook. I simply don't believe in it for fraud prevention and other reasons. I don't know anyone who used cash or Bitcoin to fund their 5Dimes account that has had any issues. But of course, you do what you feel comfortable with. Sadly, no other book has the early opening props like 5Dimes.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I do not see why people think Conor and Khabib is close.

Khabib is going to get Conor down at will, his versatility in TDS are way too much, this is going to be a dominant beatdown. Conor's only chance is a ko and he will probably close at even money. You guys really think Conor kos khabib 50 percent of the time? I sure as hell don't. I will be SMASHING khabib's line.

I think Conor KO’s about 50% of the time. My stat model says that he has 62% finishing odds vs 16% for Khabib.

It prob underrates Khabib’s defense a bit— his rating isn’t that high bc he’s untested vs elite finishers. But even if you jack him up to top 5 pound for pound survival ability, Conor still has about 40% odds. Conor is really that special at finishing and 5 rounds is a loooong window

Also Conor decision is more live than people give credit for. Khabib couldn’t take down Iaquinta for 3 rounds...if that happens vs Conor it’s a clear 3-2 loss. And Conor can still win rounds where he gets taken down if he lands bigger shots on foot than Khabib on ground, etc.

 

[ill800]

I think Conor KO’s about 50% of the time. My stat model says that he has 62% finishing odds vs 16% for Khabib.

It prob underrates Khabib’s defense a bit— his rating isn’t that high bc he’s untested vs elite finishers. But even if you jack him up to top 5 pound for pound survival ability, Conor still has about 40% odds. Conor is really that special at finishing and 5 rounds is a loooong window

Also Conor decision is more live than people give credit for. Khabib couldn’t take down Iaquinta for 3 rounds...if that happens vs Conor it’s a clear 3-2 loss. And Conor can still win rounds where he gets taken down if he lands bigger shots on foot than Khabib on ground, etc.

I had the same thoughts about the AI fight.

It’s not like khabib gets stronger as the fight goes on either. Sure, his cardio has held up when he’s the hammer but what happens if he’s the nail?

Conor absolutely has a chance of winning a decision, especially with the new rules. It’s just not a given to me that khabibs going to take Conor down every round. It’s also not a given that Conor is done after rd 2.

I’m just trying to be objective here. I dont see khabib washing him 60-70% of the time. His striking, footwork and defense are pretty garbage. And he’s going up Against an Elite striker and ko artist.

The rounds don’t start with Conor on his back

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I had the same thoughts about the AI fight.

It’s not like khabib gets stronger as the fight goes on either. Sure, his cardio has held up when he’s the hammer but what happens if he’s the nail?

Conor absolutely has a chance of winning a decision, especially with the new rules. It’s just not a given to me that khabibs going to take Conor down every round. It’s also not a given that Conor is done after rd 2.

I’m just trying to be objective here. I dont see khabib washing him 60-70% of the time. His striking, footwork and defense are pretty garbage. And he’s going up Against an Elite striker and ko artist.

The rounds don’t start with Conor on his back

Completely agree. People are glazing over Khabib’s flaws because he is a wrestler who has never lost a round. But he has soooo many flaws and he has faced a soft schedule.

He was bad vs Tibau. His round 2 vs Healy was extremely weak. Got tagged early by MJ. Rounds 3-5 vs raging Al. He’s technically winning rounds but has shown plenty of weakness against non-elite competition.

Only dudes that exposed any Conor weakness whatsoever were Mendes and Nate. Max, Dustin, Eddie, Aldo all had absolutely nothing for him.

Also agree with cardio narrative. Power hitters still hit hard when gassed. Dustin looked done before he finished Gaethje. Yoel almost murdered Whittaker when he was gassed. Conor’s round 4 vs Nate was very good. Khabib will not be safe until the fight is over.