UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

lifeisgood12345 said:
Completely agree. People are glazing over Khabib’s flaws because he is a wrestler who has never lost a round. But he has soooo many flaws and he has faced a soft schedule.

He was bad vs Tibau. His round 2 vs Healy was extremely weak. Got tagged early by MJ. Rounds 3-5 vs raging Al. He’s technically winning rounds but has shown plenty of weakness against non-elite competition.

Only dudes that exposed any Conor weakness whatsoever were Mendes and Nate. Max, Dustin, Eddie, Aldo all had absolutely nothing for him.

Also agree with cardio narrative. Power hitters still hit hard when gassed. Dustin looked done before he finished Gaethje. Yoel almost murdered Whittaker when he was gassed. Conor’s round 4 vs Nate was very good. Khabib will not be safe until the fight is over.
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Al is a tougher matchup for khabib than Conor. Khabibs takedowns started failing because Al can actually wrestle. When khabib starts switching from single to double, to pressuring Conor vs the cage (where Nate had Conor multiple times), the takedowns will be too easy for khabib and khabib is so much bigger than Conor. Conor will not have enough in his defensive wrestling arsenal to stop tds, his skill just isn't there. This fight will be an absolute mismatch and Conor will not win a round. Mark my words. Conor also has no get up game. Conor's only chance is for khabib to inexplicably not go for tds which won't happen because the tds will come too easy.
 
Yup. Perfect spot to fade BB here. He is gonna get fucked up from the distance. Volkov's jab is very good. BB is not good and it's a miracle he is as highly ranked as he is right now.

Split dec against old washed up Roy Nelson. Dec could have gone to Roy also
Shamil was kicking his ass for almost 4 rounds until he gassed from doing it and BB got he half flukish TKO
Travis was winning the fight as well. Fucked him up from range with kicks etc.
Hunt absolutely demolished Derrick
Tybura was winning also until he gassed and made rookie mistakes. BB was really close to losing that fight...
And Ngannou fight you all know

BB been incredibly lucky here. It's not who you beat it's how you beat them. BB is just a standing target these days with his shitty back just don't fall into brawl with him and you are fine. Volkov is a bad bad matchup for him.
 
Thought Ryan 1.48 was a good price but he is 1.60 now what happened? Any red flags over LaFlare's head? fuck did not expect that this lines would get tighter
 
ill800 said:
I had the same thoughts about the AI fight.

It’s not like khabib gets stronger as the fight goes on either. Sure, his cardio has held up when he’s the hammer but what happens if he’s the nail?

Conor absolutely has a chance of winning a decision, especially with the new rules. It’s just not a given to me that khabibs going to take Conor down every round. It’s also not a given that Conor is done after rd 2.

I’m just trying to be objective here. I dont see khabib washing him 60-70% of the time. His striking, footwork and defense are pretty garbage. And he’s going up Against an Elite striker and ko artist.

The rounds don’t start with Conor on his back
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No he doesnt, no fuckin way Conor wins a Dec against Khabib. He doesnt have the cardio for that, he had a layoff and dude.. he was drinking whisky on Press 2 weeks before the fight.
 
Lightbringer said:
Al is a tougher matchup for khabib than Conor. Khabibs takedowns started failing because Al can actually wrestle. When khabib starts switching from single to double, to pressuring Conor vs the cage (where Nate had Conor multiple times), the takedowns will be too easy for khabib and khabib is so much bigger than Conor. Conor will not have enough in his defensive wrestling arsenal to stop tds, his skill just isn't there. This fight will be an absolute mismatch and Conor will not win a round. Mark my words. Conor also has no get up game. Conor's only chance is for khabib to inexplicably not go for tds which won't happen because the tds will come too easy.
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Al wrestled community college and outside of Mendes fight Conor takedown D has been great. Not like Al’s wrestling is multiple tiers above Conor

Also elite striking makes takedowns harder. Khabib was diving for the single leg bc he didnt want to get countered. He was also kinda cautious going for takedowns vs MJ. He was much more aggressive vs RDA and Barboza whose power he did not respect
 
Danis_champ said:
Thought Ryan 1.48 was a good price but he is 1.60 now what happened? Any red flags over LaFlare's head? fuck did not expect that this lines would get tighter
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Laflare seems to be content at being a gatekeeper. He trains out of his Long Island gym and embraces the nickname Decisionator. I was happy to bet small an ambitious and developing fighter with great team against him as 2.7 underdog.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Al wrestled community college and outside of Mendes fight Conor takedown D has been great. Not like Al’s wrestling is multiple tiers above Conor

Also elite striking makes takedowns harder. Khabib was diving for the single leg bc he didnt want to get countered. He was also kinda cautious going for takedowns vs MJ. He was much more aggressive vs RDA and Barboza whose power he did not respect
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I think current lines are pretty accurate given the unknowns surrounding the fight, but how can you say that Conor's tdd has been great outside of the Mendes fight? No one has employed a wrestling heavy gameplan against him, nor has he faced a top tier wrestler other than Mendes. Stuffing td attempts from Diaz and Alvarez isn't even in the same stratosphere as defending what Khabib brings to the table.

It's possible that he's made big improvements in his time away, but that seems like speculation to me. He hasn't shown the defensive wrestling or get ups that would make me want to bet him at this price.
 
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t6p said:
I think current lines are pretty accurate given the unknowns surrounding the fight, but how can you say that Conor's tdd has been great outside of the Mendes fight? No one has employed a wrestling heavy gameplan against him, nor has he faced a top tier wrestler other than Mendes. Stuffing td attempts from Diaz and Alvarez isn't even in the same stratosphere as defending what Khabib brings to the table.

It's possible that he's made big improvements in his time away, but that seems like speculation to me. He hasn't shown the defensive wrestling or get ups that would make me want to bet him at this price.
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Stuffing Eddie's attempts definitely means something. Eddie is a solid wrestler, and if Conor had truly bad takedown D he would have been put on the canvas a few times.

Solidly good takedown D and elite striking power may be all it takes to make takedowns extremely difficult for Khabib once these guys get slippery and sweaty.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Stuffing Eddie's attempts definitely means something. Eddie is a solid wrestler, and if Conor had truly bad takedown D he would have been put on the canvas a few times.

Solidly good takedown D and elite striking power may be all it takes to make takedowns extremely difficult for Khabib once these guys get slippery and sweaty.
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Alvarez's offensive wrestling is probably above average, but he was also rocked badly about a minute into that fight and looked lost from that point on. The same thing could happen to Khabib I suppose. But, not only is Alvarez's td game levels below Khabib's, but the thing that really separates them is their top control. Eddie's never been much of a ground and pound guy and even against guys like Pettis, he struggles to keep his opponents down.

What's going to happen here if Khabib does get Conor down early in the fight and does something similar to what he did to Johnson, Barboza, Iaquinta, etc? I'm not convinced that Conor's going to be nearly as dangerous on the feet if he takes that type of a beating, not to mention the fact that he slows down in fights. I'm not saying Conor doesn't have a good chance to win, I think he does. I just don't see how anyone can be very confident in either side here.
 
I hopped in on the Volkov circle jerk at -165.

Derrick Lewis does NOT do well vs power strikers. Was KO'd by Hunt, Mitrione, and Shawn Jordan. Volkov is better than all of those dudes. BB is at his best when he can brawl with grapplers who aren't big countering threats.

His only real win vs striker was Travis Browne when Browne was more or less washed. He had just been dominated on foot by Werdum, whereas Volkov badly outclassed Werdum striking. And Browne still hurt Lewis pretty bad round 1 with body kicks similar to the ones Volkov hit Roy Nelson with.

I give him negative points for fighting scared vs mentally broken Ngannou even if he technically won.

Not sure why the markets refuse to respect Volkov. He got rocked by Timothy Johnson in his debut bc he wasn't respecting Johnson's power, and he still has some holes in his grappling defense. But he is only 29 and has looked great in his last few fights.

He is definitely the best striker that Lewis has faced, and Lewis hasn't done well vs strikers in the past. Lewis could catch him to be sure, but there's no way that happens 40%+. Crazy that Ngannou was -300 and Volkov is only -165-- IMO Volkov is the same level of threat.
 
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t6p said:
Alvarez's offensive wrestling is probably above average, but he was also rocked badly about a minute into that fight and looked lost from that point on. The same thing could happen to Khabib I suppose. But, not only is Alvarez's td game levels below Khabib's, but the thing that really separates them is their top control. Eddie's never been much of a ground and pound guy and even against guys like Pettis, he struggles to keep his opponents down.

What's going to happen here if Khabib does get Conor down early in the fight and does something similar to what he did to Johnson, Barboza, Iaquinta, etc? I'm not convinced that Conor's going to be nearly as dangerous on the feet if he takes that type of a beating, not to mention the fact that he slows down in fights. I'm not saying Conor doesn't have a good chance to win, I think he does. I just don't see how anyone can be very confident in either side here.
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Conor can be completely gassed and still solidly outstrike Khabib and be a KO threat.

There are 5 rounds, all of them start standing up, all he needs is one punch. And once Khabib starts feeling his power, even finding windows to shoot for takedowns becomes a challenge. His elite top control doesn't do much for him if he has to worried about getting decapitated just to get on top.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Conor can be completely gassed and still solidly outstrike Khabib and be a KO threat.

There are 5 rounds, all of them start standing up, all he needs is one punch. And once Khabib starts feeling his power, even finding windows to shoot for takedowns becomes a challenge. His elite top control doesn't do much for him if he has to worried about getting decapitated just to get on top.
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I will be absolutely shocked in McGregor gets a KO outside of Rd 1 or Rd 2. The styles clash so badly. If he's not getting the KO in Rd 1 or Rd 2, he's likely on his back for most of it getting beat up and wearing down. I don't think there will be much idle time at all in this fight.
 
Oblivian said:
I will be absolutely shocked in McGregor gets a KO outside of Rd 1 or Rd 2. The styles clash so badly. If he's not getting the KO in Rd 1 or Rd 2, he's likely on his back for most of it getting beat up and wearing down. I don't think there will be much idle time at all in this fight.
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He KO'd Mendes in the last 30 seconds of round 2. Not like he couldn't have done so in round 3 after getting a minute to rest on his stool. And his round 4 vs Diaz was definitely good enough to KO a non-striking threat like Khabib.

Cardio is such an overrated point. It's so common that guys are expected to gas and then don't. Or they do gas and then fight well in spite of it. It is worth considering to some extent, but has much less predictive power than it gets credit for.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Conor can be completely gassed and still solidly outstrike Khabib and be a KO threat.

There are 5 rounds, all of them start standing up, all he needs is one punch. And once Khabib starts feeling his power, even finding windows to shoot for takedowns becomes a challenge. His elite top control doesn't do much for him if he has to worried about getting decapitated just to get on top.
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We've seen Conor in the championship rounds once, in the second Diaz fight, and he didn't look like much of a KO threat to me in those later rounds. Even after round 2 actually. He was able to fight through the fatigue and keep the volume up enough in the 4th to win the round, but he looked significantly slower, flat footed and his punches certainly didn't have nearly the same power behind them. Diaz was also able to initiate the clinch multiple times and even hold him against the fence, which would be a recipe for disaster against Khabib.

I went 5u (max bet for me) on Conor against both Diaz in the second fight and Alvarez. I just think there are too many question marks here and reasons to believe that Khabib could be a bad matchup for him. I don't see this as a fight to go big on either way.
 
Omg and here it starts again... its simple as fucking. 50/50 my God guys lets focus on other fights
 
Oblivian said:
We should stick to talking about the lockz!
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Yeah bro. I only want to bet on fights where there's no possibility of losing! If you keep betting on fights where you can't lose, you're bound to make a profit!
 
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