UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

[zeckdo]

If I knew how these were graded, I would totally bet.

If they go by what Dana says, who the fook knows. If's they're real numbers, u1.8 seems pretty safe.

I see Conor's PPV ceiling around 1.5 million. I don't think he's acquired hundreds of thousands of new PPV paying fans since he fought Alvarez, but who knows.

 

[Danis_champ]

View attachment 441225
If I knew how these were graded, I would totally bet.

If they go by what Dana says, who the fook knows. If's they're real numbers, u1.8 seems pretty safe.

I see Conor's PPV ceiling around 1.5 million. I don't think he's acquired hundreds of thousands of new PPV paying fans since he fought Alvarez, but who knows.

Yes, Dana is full of shit as always with his 2,5M talk. This fight isn't looking bigger than the Diaz ones, I'd be surprised if it surpasses Diaz fights

 

[Larthus]

Mcgregor really not getting a lot of credit for washing a who’s who of elite fighters.

People think he’s just going to let khabib and his terrible standup take him down and lay on him for 5 rds.

Everybody’s got a gameplan until they get punched in the face.

I dunno how people can be supremely confident in khabib just because he can wrestle. Mendes could wrestle too.

The mendes comparison ain't it chief

 

[piglord]

slime time:

http://piglordmma.com/2018/09/24/ufc-229-conor-mcgregor-vs-khabib-nurmagomedov-betting-predictions/

 

[ill800]

The mendes comparison ain't it chief

I’m not comparing mendes wrestling to khabibs, chief

I’m just trying to be objective in a forum that’s been full of “the jerk”

Maia has great chain wrestling too but that wasn’t enough for him to beat the elite guys

Being one dimensional in mma will only get you through in the women’s division.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

slime time:

http://piglordmma.com/2018/09/24/ufc-229-conor-mcgregor-vs-khabib-nurmagomedov-betting-predictions/

O M G
we think the same for this event
WTF

 

[Oblivian]

I really think there are only a couple realistic options here. Conor catches Khabib coming in recklessly or catches Khabib if he tries to stand too long. Otherwise, I see Khabib mauling Conor on the ground and wearing him out for a late finish or dominant decision. The hard part is figuring out the % chance of Conor catching Khabib. I really think if it happens, it's probably going to be in Rd 1.

 

[Larthus]

I’m not comparing mendes wrestling to khabibs, chief

I’m just trying to be objective in a forum that’s been full of “the jerk”

Maia has great chain wrestling too but that wasn’t enough for him to beat the elite guys

Being one dimensional in mma will only get you through in the women’s division.

I respect your opinion but I would argue that the one dimensionality applies to McGregor more than it applies to Khabib.

But I'm biased. I think Mcgregor is a lot of smoke & mirrors and I would put a number of lightweights above him, including rising prospect Gregor Gillispie.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Fam what? Did you watch the Barboza, MJ, or Al fight?

Ffs, 1) he outstruck Barboza 89 - 25 and won the fight 30-24, 30-25, & 30-25. Dominant victory.
2) he outstruck MJ 94-19 and although he won by kimura he was easily on his way to another 30-24, 30-25 & 30-25
3) he outstruck Al 134 - 34, and was dominating until he decided to test his striking in the last one which made it look less so but he still won by a completely one-side unanimous decision (50-43, 50-44, 50-43)
All of the above metrics suggest complete one-side domination.

You're right, he ragdolled RDA, but he only outstruck him 36-20 in a 3 round fight (MJ & Barboza were also 3 rounders, and the striking differential is starkly different)

This indicates that 1) not only did he dominate RDA, but he also dominated every fighter you listed as a "comfortable performance" and 2) he is improving over time in all aspects, against fighters with an eclectic range of skill sets, which cannot be proven for Conor because he hasn't had a significant test since Diaz.

As far as him beating fighters light years better than ones Khabib has:
- MJ starched Poirier prior to fighting Khabib
- Aldo was a 13 second wash which doesn't tell us anything in the grand scheme of things
- Alvarez was completely mindfucked by Conor and would lose to any number of current lightweight contenders. He would probably go to a close decision with Barboza for example.
- Holloway is the only one who is markedly better than anyone Khabib has fought & Conor caught him when he was young and on the come-up, the current iteration of Holloway would probably push Conor's shit in.

Khabib can hold top position against Rockhold & wrestle on an even playing field with DC(!!!) Conor cannot train for one year in wrestling and expect to be able to defend against someone as strong and dominant as Khabib. Conor has made his bones cutting massive amounts of weight to 145 & fighting guys who are smaller and physically weaker. Similar to Darren Till. But there's levels to this shit. If he doesn't KO Khabib within one round, he's going to lose. No way he wins a decision.

note - I would 100% bet Covington over Conor. Like, take out loans to be on Colby type of betting. I would convince everyone I know to bet Colby. He's a big, talented welterweight

Barboza, MJ, and Iaquinta are about as close to Conor as strikers as Eddie Alvarez is to Khabib as a wrestler. It's not the same stratosphere.

Those excuses would be fine if Conor only beat 1 or 2 of those guys. But he must be special to have beaten all 5 decisively. And just as easy as you can make excuses, you can find a reason why each win will translate into success vs Khabib.

Aldo-- much like Khabib had never been rocked before. If Conor can catch Aldo with one punch, why can't he do the same to Khabib?

Eddie-- similar reach/athleticism to Khabib. Worse wrestler but better striker. Conor's reach and counter striking was so dangerous Eddie couldn't mount a lick of offense.

Mendes-- More explosive and dangerous on foot than Khabib makes him a bigger takedown threat in certain ways. Even though he got the takedowns and held Conor down, Conor only needed 30 secs late in round 2 to KO.

Holloway + Dustin are top of the food chain strikers and Conor proved he is in his own special tier of striking against them.

 

[ill800]

I respect your opinion but I would argue that the one dimensionality applies to McGregor more than it applies to Khabib.

But I'm biased. I think Mcgregor is a lot of smoke & mirrors and I would put a number of lightweights above him, including rising prospect Gregor Gillispie.

I think Conor is better on the ground than khabib is standing up.

Both are elite in their worlds.

I think Conor can survive on the ground with khabib. I dont think khabib can survive trading with Conor. His chin hasn’t been tested.

Conor has made a believer out of me in his last few fights. He did respectable vs mayweather, the best defensive boxer of our generation.

He showed a lot of heart in the rematch with diaz. He was able to push through the fatigue and finish strong.

I thought there was value in the +165 I got him for. I was considering switching sides but I might just stay with Mac. Really think he can hurt khabib. He’s a smart fighter and I’m sure he’s training tdd and thinking of ways to catch khabib coming in.

 

[Larthus]

Barboza, MJ, and Iaquinta are about as close to Conor as strikers as Eddie Alvarez is to Khabib as a wrestler. It's not the same stratosphere.

Those excuses would be fine if Conor only beat 1 or 2 of those guys. But you can't luck into a hit list where you beat all 5 of those guys. And just as easy as you can make excuses, you can find a reason why Conor has a chance.

Aldo-- much like Khabib had never been rocked before. If Conor can catch Aldo with one punch, why can't he do the same to Khabib?

Eddie-- similar reach/athleticism to Khabib. Worse wrestler but better striker. Conor's reach and counter striking was so dangerous Eddie couldn't mount a lick of offense.

Mendes-- More explosive and dangerous on foot than Khabib makes him a bigger takedown threat in certain ways. Even though he got the takedowns and held Conor down, Conor only needed 30 secs late in round 2 to KO.

Holloway + Dustin are top of the food chain strikers and Conor proved that he is higher on the food chain against them.

I hope you don't think I'm trying to attack you at all because I'm not & I completely understand what you're saying, but from my perspective MJ has better TDD (wrestling background) and comparable striking to Conor (in power, not precision) and in all honestly, is probably stronger than Conor in general, but once he was down, it was over.

Mendes on the ground isn't as dominant as Khabib & thats why Conor had the energy to KO him. Khabib is an energy leech. I just don't think Conor is going to be the one to beat Khabib. I think as it stands right now, Kevin Lee has the best chance out of all the contenders in the pipeline.

 

[ill800]

Barboza, MJ, and Iaquinta are about as close to Conor as strikers as Eddie Alvarez is to Khabib as a wrestler. It's not the same stratosphere.

Those excuses would be fine if Conor only beat 1 or 2 of those guys. But he must be special to have beaten all 5 decisively. And just as easy as you can make excuses, you can find a reason why each win will translate into success vs Khabib.

Aldo-- much like Khabib had never been rocked before. If Conor can catch Aldo with one punch, why can't he do the same to Khabib?

Eddie-- similar reach/athleticism to Khabib. Worse wrestler but better striker. Conor's reach and counter striking was so dangerous Eddie couldn't mount a lick of offense.

Mendes-- More explosive and dangerous on foot than Khabib makes him a bigger takedown threat in certain ways. Even though he got the takedowns and held Conor down, Conor only needed 30 secs late in round 2 to KO.

Holloway + Dustin are top of the food chain strikers and Conor proved he is in his own special tier of striking against them.

I doubted Conor for a while.

I really believe he is a special fighter now. The biggest reason he lost to Diaz is because Diaz has an iron chin. He absolutely blasted him with shots that would knock most welterweights out and Diaz just ate them, repeatedly.

The biggest unknown for me is how will khabib take Conor’s left hook? Khabib has terrible weight cuts. Is his chin going to hold up? Is mr tira misu even going to make weight?

There’s little doubt imo that he’s going to have to eat punches to secure his takedowns. Will he be able to walk through Mcgregor a shots like Diaz did?

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I hope you don't think I'm trying to attack you at all because I'm not & I completely understand what you're saying, but from my perspective MJ has better TDD (wrestling background) and comparable striking to Conor (in power, not precision) and in all honestly, is probably stronger than Conor in general, but once he was down, it was over.

Mendes on the ground isn't as dominant as Khabib & thats why Conor had the energy to KO him. Khabib is an energy leech. I just don't think Conor is going to be the one to beat Khabib. I think as it stands right now, Kevin Lee has the best chance out of all the contenders in the pipeline.

Cmon man, Conor is multiple tiers ahead of Michael Johnson as a fighter. He has some SERIOUS advantages that set him well ahead. Sure they both caught Dustin, but otherwise their resumes are light years apart.

Agree on Lee. Woodley would also be a problem if Khabib moved up to 170. Gaethje has a chance. But Khabib is a flawed fighter. Short arms, doesn't finish, limited striking. In the deepest weight class, there must be more than 3 fighters that can give him problems.

 

[Larthus]

Cmon man, Conor is multiple tiers ahead of Michael Johnson as a fighter. He has some SERIOUS advantages that set him well ahead. Sure they both caught Dustin, but otherwise their resumes are light years apart.

Agree on Lee. Woodley would also be a problem if Khabib moved up to 170. Gaethje has a chance. But Khabib is a flawed fighter. Short arms, doesn't finish, limited striking. In the deepest weight class, there are more than 3 fighters that can give him problems.

Argument wasn't that MJ is better, he definitely isn't. Conor is more refined and much more fluid.. my argument is that MJ is stronger and has better TDD and still got taken down, that's all.

I agree with you about Khabib being flawed, just don't think Conor will be the one to do it. I would gladly take Gaethje at +160 vs Khabib because of his strong wrestling base & how he uses it defensively. I wouldn't take Conor.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I doubted Conor for a while.

I really believe he is a special fighter now. The biggest reason he lost to Diaz is because Diaz has an iron chin. He absolutely blasted him with shots that would knock most welterweights out and Diaz just ate them, repeatedly.

The biggest unknown for me is how will khabib take Conor’s left hook? Khabib has terrible weight cuts. Is his chin going to hold up? Is mr tira miss even going to make weight?

You are echoing all of my thoughts for this one. People are too comfortable with Khabib's chin just because he hasn't been rocked yet. Hard to drain yourself to make weight and have an iron chin.

I doubted Conor for a while too. Was huge on Floyd vs him, felt that his hype was irrational and that he would be a great fade when he returned to MMA. Now people are so eager to say he is overhyped he may be actually underrated.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Argument wasn't that MJ is better, he definitely isn't. Conor is more refined and much more fluid.. my argument is that MJ is stronger and has better TDD and still got taken down, that's all.

I agree with you about Khabib being flawed, just don't think Conor will be the one to do it. I would gladly take Gaethje at +160 vs Khabib because of his strong wrestling base & how he uses it defensively. I wouldn't take Conor.

Mmmm I don't think so. Mendes took him down a few times and has special takedown offense + explosiveness. And Nate got a late takedown against gassed Conor. That's it.

Eddie couldn't come close to getting a takedown against him. MJ has been taken down multiple times by Andre Fili, Myles Jury, Reza Madadi, Jonathan Brookins and taken down + choked out by Elkins. Are any of those guys significantly better wrestlers than Eddie? I don't think so.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Generaly I favour Khabib but this fight is a dog or pass situation.
Chances are really 50/50

 

[Wiktoruspro]

View attachment 441225
If I knew how these were graded, I would totally bet.

If they go by what Dana says, who the fook knows. If's they're real numbers, u1.8 seems pretty safe.

I see Conor's PPV ceiling around 1.5 million. I don't think he's acquired hundreds of thousands of new PPV paying fans since he fought Alvarez, but who knows.

naah there will be over 2 milion for sure. There was a nice ppv for the first fight with a clown like Diaz, their rematch later had better sales because people wanted to see if Conor can win this time . Khabib is a monster and everyone will be curious to see this fight if Conor can win this.

 

[Larthus]

Agree to disagree fellas. We could go back and forth arguing this all day. Can't believe this is actually being looked at as a 50/50 fight. I hope the odds reflect this so I can max Khabib

 

[Stunna77]

I will repeat again, there are sooo many better spots here than trying to guess if Conor KO's Khabib early or gets ragdolled. Volkov is -170, for example.