UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas (part 2)

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Fair enough. I actually thought Khabib outlanded Tibau (not in terms of numbers necessarily, but in terms of how clean his shots were). I'm sure you can understand why I'm not interested in watching it again to see if you are correct :)

I scored it for Kebab. But either way terrible fight.
 
Jumping on the O1.5 train in the Pedro/Craig fight. 1u @ +162.
 
I didn't say he's "never done anything" to guys with good guards. I said he's never hurt them or come close to finishing them. Unless I messed an example of it? I understand what I'm seeing just fine, so save the attempt at being condescending. Khabib is absolutely terrific at top control, chain wrestling, passing to half guard. He'll wreck guys on the ground who don't have the skills off their back to to re-attain guard, or who don't understand they can't get lazy when Khabib is going to trap their arm.

I mean, did I miss Khabib really doing damage and even coming close to finishing someone with a good guard? Do we agree that Ferg at the least has a "good" guard and feel for what guys are trying to do if he's on his back? I mean, there's a chance I'm just seriously overrating Ferg's abilities off his back (and it's not like I think he's Marcelo here) but I don't think so.

As I already said, Ferg is gonna have to make some adjustments to his guard game here if put on his back, especially early. He can't just rely on high guard because Khabi's posture is too good. He needs to mix it up, create small amounts of space and make Khabib WORK to get that space back. I don't think Ferg on his back early in the fight is gonna have a ton of success. But I think he can avoid any serious damage and make Khabib work, which could play into cardio. And I'll take Ferg's cardio over Khabib's (or to be fair anyone else's in the division or maybe in MMA).

Again, please don't condescend. I've been doing this too long to read that silly nonsense. Khabib can win for sure. Hell he can even look good doing so. I'd be pretty stunned if he finished Ferg, but I've been wrong before.

Well said, thanks for the back and forth on one of the most anticipated fights for me ever. I genuinely hope we all find a way to make money off this fucker.

Only a few more days to go...
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Teymur/Lando is one of the most off lines I've seen in a while. I think Teymur has a distinct advantage on the feet. He's a southpaw with a heavy preference for circling toward his open side to lead opponents into his rear kicks, so he'll be circling away from Lando's spins. Teymur has great kicks off his rear side and a solid counter left. I expect his distancing to give Lando trouble, as Lando likes to feint in and get guys committing with punches to open up entries. Teymur can hang back and force him to cover distance to open himself up for the rear hand or just kick.

Lando also likes to throw those short front kicks and occasional round kicks at range, and sets up entries with his low-line side kick. Teymur is very hard to hit clean with kicks (this is a rare skill in MMA fighters and after watching tape I consider Teymur among the best at it). In his fights against Novelli and Svensson he blocked/parried and immediately countered almost every kick thrown at him. Novelli got blasted twice drifting out of his stance on those front kicks like Lando does.

Lando uses weaves really well when he can get in on guys and force them to commit over his feints, but his head is open and he's willing to take his feet out of position when covering distance. I think Teymur's footwork and preference for long distance will force him to expose himself to counters, which he's proven willing to do.

I like Teymur's instincts in the clinch, he's good at turning out and urgent in doing so. I haven't seen much of Lando's offensive wrestling but Teymur's TDD looks fairly solid,

I set Teymur's line at -150 and am in for 5u on him. I can see Lando catching him and finishing, but I think it's unlikely he's able to consistently outstrike Teymur for 15 minutes
Nice breakdown.

Interested to hear your thoughts about Tybura/Henrique. I feel Henrique is getting undervalued here.
 
Ferguson by submission or decision @ 5.00
I put 1.5u on that
 
Betting on a total of 8 fights for this card, Typically I bet less than 4

Got so many leans and like I said I'm going to a whole new level for this card, breaking my own records.

This card is a gold mine for high level sharps like myself.

I've already given out multiple free expert plays, I like to give back to those in need, it's just how I am.
 
I just want to address a few things here.

I see the Ferg is stupid comments rearing their head again. This is the most creative fighter in the game that level of creativity does not come from a stupid man. Yeah he's eccentric but he's a maverick these types of people no matter what field of work they are in generally do not conform to conventional wisdom. He goes completely against conventional thinking with his training camp he doesn't go to big gyms he has formed his own gym where he is the centre of attention that's a smart guy. He's as nutty as a fruitcake but that's a good thing that's why he is the fighter he is.

Secondly, i see a lot of comments that Ferg does this and that and is reckless, etc. Hell, I was guilty of it myself saying i don't want him to leg kick as that's how he gets taken down. Ferg is as good as he is, and has got to where he is due to his offensive dynamism, creativity and as he calls it free flow style. You cannot try to contain or modify his style no matter who he is fighting. Yes the conventional train of thought will be against someone like Kebab to watch his p's and q's and not do half the risky shit he does. But the more i have thought about this and the more you have to just let Ferg go out there and do his thing. I've bet him pretty big and i know he is going to give me a few heart attacks in this fight, he always does, and yes he may lose this is a close fight. But i don't want Ferg to fight any different his creativity is what makes him soooo good and so dangerous if he contains himself we get half the fighter and he will probably lose. Having said all this the one thing i do not want to see is the Immanri/Ryan Hall role - he only did it once against RDA so i think that shows he can still fight creatively while at the same time not being stupid.

I think it was Plekz who mentioned how overly aggressive Ferg is. Yeah he can be but against someone like Barboza it was the perfect strategy. Watch the RDA fight he applies intelligent aggression he wasn't overly aggressive in that fight at all. He showed against RDA that he can fight to a gameplan. Ferg has to apply aggression in this fight but he needs to do it intelligently. Kebab has shown particularly against Healy and r3 against RDA that he does not like being pressured. The worst thing you can do to someone who is not that comfortable striking is put them on the back foot, as fighting off the back foot is very difficult even for some very good strikers. It is far more natural to attack on the front foot. Being backed up is a whole different world.

My reasoning for betting Ferg is mainly he has three paths to victory compared to Kebab's one, and the value is on Ferg. This should be a pick 'em. Even Firas couldn't pick a winner.


Well said. I pointed it out earlier. I think vs RDA and Barboza Ferg (to a degree) forced them into exchanges early knowing they'd break well before he did. His borderline reckless aggression often has an underlying gameplan behind it.
 
I did not expect money coming in on ferguson this late. Where are all the russians unloading their money on khabib?
 
Spent a month in Thailand, last 5 weeks at Jacksons, I have a 80% win ratio, I'm trying to come out of this career without brain damage, I don't fight stupid, I studied his body type and weight, strongest opponent I've ever faced, training camp was awesome, every fight is a 50/50 toss up, but I feel confident, I have great memories of fighting in Vegas



 
Has anyone got any views on Khabib Nurmagomedov v Tony Ferguson? I'd like to hear people's thoughts on it.
 
Has anyone got any views on Khabib Nurmagomedov v Tony Ferguson? I'd like to hear people's thoughts on it.
Not familiar with the first guy, but Tony Fryklund is pretty solid, man. Don't let his recent loss to Anderson Silva fool you.
 
I generally like Wyman, but he said Spitz has beaten solid competition on the regional scene. He beat a 20-16 Cabbage who is definitely brain damaged at this point, two 0-1 fighters and a guy who is 12-16. Not sure how you can call that solid competetion. Think him and Reubusch just mail in a lot of the lesser known fights..
 
Woodley +150 is pretty ridiculous. Why should Thompson be that big of a favorite this seems to be a pick em fight to me.
 
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