UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 1, 2017.

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  1. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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  2. Stunna77 Green Belt

    Stunna77
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    Let it ride IGNP
     
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  3. HeDucking Im so Groovy

    HeDucking
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    A new thread to discuss more Khabib vs Ferguson. <{yearp}>
     
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  4. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face.

    Officer_Brown
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    Let the Khabib/Ferg talk begin. I usually skip and don't even read the post when "khabib" or "ferg" name is mentioned. Let's talk about prelims. Why isnt godbeer 4-1 fav. Spitz sucks big time.
     
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  5. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    It's a little over 5u though. that's a lot
     
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  6. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
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    I pulled the trigger on Teymur as well. So many dogs for this event.
     
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  7. Stunna77 Green Belt

    Stunna77
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    EZ, I would wait on Teymur the way favs have been getting parlayed up. I will stab at some point too, but with what has been going on I wouldn't be shocked to see him keep climbing..
     
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  8. HeDucking Im so Groovy

    HeDucking
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    Gurantee yourself profit first and foremost, youll thank yourself.
     
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  9. onC Orange Belt

    onC
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    Bet365 opened Teymur dec @+650
     
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  10. Stunna77 Green Belt

    Stunna77
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    True, if you feel like hedging a bit off the lines are certainly there to do so. My thing is you were obviously happy with the line and confident in the bet when you made it. I doubt that has changed, right? Unless you were playing it for line movement in the first place..
     
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  11. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    Yeah I think I agree. I'm leaning on this. Or just hedging on Elkins enough to prevent any loss if he were to win. I'd have to calculate the 'new odds' id have on Bektic but im gonna wait seeing as this line gets more ridiculous by the day
     
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  12. Stunna77 Green Belt

    Stunna77
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    I have definitely done this myself, but it seems like it does cost you profit in the long run. Unless something has happened to alter your opinion of the bet, I feel like it is usually the right decision to let it ride.

    Guess it really all depends on your risk preference and long vs short term outlook on betting..
     
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  13. Card Silver Belt

    Card
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    Walking around heavier, I was way too small, I was too hesitant, the takedown, his big right hand, I don't know what it was, that wasn't me in that fight

     
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  14. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

    BatBoyJG
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    Woodley +145 yes gimmie some of dat... no gimmie all of dattttttt
     
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  15. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    i hear that. doing that on elkins, but the teymur one is a a price point i'm not gonna regret anything. and i only have 1u on him now altogether. if it does keep climbing, i might add some more
     
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  16. Orion Brown Belt

    Orion
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    Pedro/Craig is one of my most anticipated fights on this card. Looking into the film, Pedro seems very composed for only having 5 pro fights and is very good at holding position once on the ground. He took a nuke from Rountree very well, too. Seems to have his head together early on from years of martial arts.

    Craig on the other hand is interesting in the sense that he seems to adapt his style to the opponent a little bit. Ultimately he tries to implement his BJJ, but he came out eager to pressure the striker against Da Silva, and was more reserved against Lazarz until he found an opening.

    Since they're both purple belts in BJJ (although Craig may be a brown by now, last update I could find was in Dec 2015), I've been looking at other factors that may come into play here. I recall Da Silva having a hell of a striking war with Wilson, but against Craig he looked utterly sapped after round 1. That tells me that Craig's top pressure is likely awful to cope with and his pace/aggression is a problem early on.

    Pedro on the other hand seems very physically strong and may have an advantage in the clinch against the cage. But the subsequent question from there is how will his cardio hold up as a power athlete against a guy with a high pace who hunts for subs from all kinds of positions? Since there's zero data on Pedro outside of <4 mins, I'll take a shot in the dark and assume that his power output probably doesn't last.

    I'm seeing some shades of Tony Ferguson in Craigs game: game as fuck, pace, elbow-happy, hunting for subs, unorthodox (pulling to butterfly to sweep or sub), and that seems promising despite him having a job and Pedro's background.

    Pedro typically looks for that top position or to take the back, but I think barring any massive strikes landing on the feet, holding top position on Craig (if he gets there) is going to be a pain in the ass to deal with. Craig's willingness to pull to butterfly and some of his sweeps in other fights lead me to believe Pedro's main path to victory so far is going to be negated and exhausting.

    Interested to see what others think -- I missed the discussion on this fight as it got buried in the khabib/tony talk in the other thread.
     
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  17. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    yea i'm really excited for this one. they are both action dudes. my gut is: pedro is gonna be the stronger guy, probably the better wrestler.. if it goes 3 (unlikely but if), it's prolly good for him.

    i think craig is one goofy/crafty mofo who won't be easy to finish.

    my only plays so far are a unit on NOT pedro ITD -140 and a tiny stab at pedro DEC +825.

    wish it was live bettable (it's on fight pass). (tho it may end in rd 1, so there's that, anyway)
     
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  18. cagebrain MMA Expert Bettor

    cagebrain
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    Bit on Elkins at +525 and Teymur at +300. Don't see them going much higher.
     
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  19. Agent Mulder Brown Belt

    Agent Mulder
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    Teymur at +300 is insane. I loved my +250 lol.
     
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  20. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    Dont say that, I'm hoping Elkins get to +600 so I can freeroll more
     
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