UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas (part 2)

[Jamah]

Pedro/Craig is one of my most anticipated fights on this card. Looking into the film, Pedro seems very composed for only having 5 pro fights and is very good at holding position once on the ground. He took a nuke from Rountree very well, too. Seems to have his head together early on from years of martial arts.

Craig on the other hand is interesting in the sense that he seems to adapt his style to the opponent a little bit. Ultimately he tries to implement his BJJ, but he came out eager to pressure the striker against Da Silva, and was more reserved against Lazarz until he found an opening.

Since they're both purple belts in BJJ (although Craig may be a brown by now, last update I could find was in Dec 2015), I've been looking at other factors that may come into play here. I recall Da Silva having a hell of a striking war with Wilson, but against Craig he looked utterly sapped after round 1. That tells me that Craig's top pressure is likely awful to cope with and his pace/aggression is a problem early on.

Pedro on the other hand seems very physically strong and may have an advantage in the clinch against the cage. But the subsequent question from there is how will his cardio hold up as a power athlete against a guy with a high pace who hunts for subs from all kinds of positions? Since there's zero data on Pedro outside of <4 mins, I'll take a shot in the dark and assume that his power output probably doesn't last.

I'm seeing some shades of Tony Ferguson in Craigs game: game as fuck, pace, elbow-happy, hunting for subs, unorthodox (pulling to butterfly to sweep or sub), and that seems promising despite him having a job and Pedro's background.

Pedro typically looks for that top position or to take the back, but I think barring any massive strikes landing on the feet, holding top position on Craig (if he gets there) is going to be a pain in the ass to deal with. Craig's willingness to pull to butterfly and some of his sweeps in other fights lead me to believe Pedro's main path to victory so far is going to be negated and exhausting.

Interested to see what others think -- I missed the discussion on this fight as it got buried in the khabib/tony talk in the other thread.

I think that BearJew will get the job done in the later rounds when Pedro gasses.
Thats why I think the over 1.5 rounds is the way to go

 

[pytycrys]

I'm hitting the over 1.5 as well, I like +162. IMO it has more chances than Santos-Marshmann to hit.

 

[Ukram]

Interested to see what others think -- I missed the discussion on this fight as it got buried in the khabib/tony talk in the other thread.

I had initial leans on Craig, I think he is a bit of a dark horse, guys won multiple bjj competitions (scotland and UK based) but if you look close he is quite slick with his ground game, he also uses his long limbs to his advantage when locking in submissions.

He almost looks like he welcomes getting taken down just so he can attempt triangles or scrambling to get a finish. His striking has looked basic really, lots of leg kicks thrown and tends to protect himself with his hands up. Shown some ok wrestling in the past opponents too, he does have more experience, better calibar opponent wins and as previously mentioned trains twice a day in a gym for this camp despite working full time.

Pedro has looked good also, all his wins are via round 1 looks younger and stronger with basic striking and lots of back taking and rear naked chokes, says he has been in training since 5 in martial arts. Pedro has shown some nice take downs in the past also.

I guess cases can be made for either guy, old mma rules favour Pedros top game and wrestling but Craig is always sub hunting and has shown an active guard off his back, I still lean craig a little but for me given that both have never seen r3 or gone the distance the under's (1.5 or 2.5) or fight will NOT go the distance feels safer.

 

[Ukram]

I think that BearJew will get the job done in the later rounds when Pedro gasses.
Thats why I think the over 1.5 rounds is the way to go

Are you sure he gasses in r2? Pedros never seen round 2 ever or are you feeling he goes all out in r1
so no gas left for rest of the fight ?

something never thought about even but a good point

 

[Shoulder]

Hmm. Wonderboy being heavy.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Are you sure he gasses in r2? Pedros never seen round 2 ever or are you feeling he goes all out in r1
so no gas left for rest of the fight ?

something never thought about even but a good point

Neither guy has ever been over 1.5 rounds in their career of 14 pro fights combined

 

[Omni1]

Let the Khabib/Ferg talk begin. I usually skip and don't even read the post when "khabib" or "ferg" name is mentioned. Let's talk about prelims. Why isnt godbeer 4-1 fav. Spitz sucks big time.

Spitz via Sub. Take it to the bank!

 

[Officer_Brown]

Spitz via Sub. Take it to the bank!

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

I'm the real face of MMA betting

What are your expert picks for this weekend sir?

 

[Jamah]

Are you sure he gasses in r2? Pedros never seen round 2 ever or are you feeling he goes all out in r1
so no gas left for rest of the fight ?

something never thought about even but a good point

His average fight time is like 2min or 2.30min , this will be the first time that he sees r2.
Craig can run out of gas too , thats why I'm not picking a side, but If I have to pick one , I would be on BearJew.
I think that betting the o1,5 is much better

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

His average fight time is like 2min or 2.30min , this will be the first time that he sees r2.
Craig can run out of gas too , thats why I'm not picking a side, but If I have to pick one , I would be on BearJew.
I think that betting the o1,5 is much better

Neither of them has ever been over 1.5 though and neither has shown to have cardio problems. I think you're reaching a bit, I think Craig beats him and does so in the 1st. Craig is EZ money.

 

[Officer_Brown]

I'm the real face of MMA betting

What are your expert picks for this weekend sir?

No you're a bum version of me.

I'v got Woodley, Overeem, Ferg, Moraes, Godbeer, Pedro, Tybura, ABC.

 

[pytycrys]

Capping by stats is not always the smartest choice. They are both fighters with good ground game. I believe they will cancel each other and hit the o1.5.
I was on Craig initially, but I freerolled out of that. Not sure how I feel about it though, I still lean on Craig

 

[Jamah]

Neither of them has ever been over 1.5 though and neither has shown to have cardio problems. I think you're reaching a bit, I think Craig beats him and does so in the 1st. Craig is EZ money.

I think that they will cancel each other on the mat, as pytycrys has said.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

No you're a bum version of me.

I'v got Woodley, Overeem, Ferg, Moraes, Godbeer, Pedro, Tybura, ABC.

Like I said I'm the Ferrari of MMA betting, you're the Honda Civic.

The fact that you're picking Pedro shows that you don't deserve to be the face of MMA betting.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Like I said I'm the Ferrari of MMA betting, you're the Honda Civic.

The fact that you're picking Pedro shows that you don't deserve to be the face of MMA betting.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

I think that they will cancel each other on the mat, as pytycrys has said.

Maybe, depends how durable Pedro is. After watching researching this fight, its very clear to me that Bear Jew wins, Pedro is outmatched in all areas. Craig at +100 stupidly good.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

LOL cmon, I never even picked Moontasri or Perry, I haven't even talked about them. You just making stuff up. Why don't you mention my winning picks? You wanna be me

 

[Ukram]

Neither guy has ever been over 1.5 rounds in their career of 14 pro fights combined

Yup I posted a lean on of u1.5 on the above post earlier, makes sense both seem to be finishers and never seen r3.

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

Does anyone know if Iuri is still training at Jacksons? I know he was for his previous fight where he steamrolled Pickett. Was wondering if hes still there