UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas (part 2)

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I think that they will cancel each other on the mat, as pytycrys has said.
Capping by stats is not always the smartest choice. They are both fighters with good ground game. I believe they will cancel each other and hit the o1.5.
I was on Craig initially, but I freerolled out of that. Not sure how I feel about it though, I still lean on Craig

I agree, think they cancel eachother's main finishing route, which is grappling. Also they should each be the best fighter the other has fought so far in their careers and are evenly matched. Like pytycrys said I think too much stat capping is going on here and I will gladly play the over at +160. Bearjew Frankenstein over almost hit even with Frankenstein completely gassing and being known to be ultra-aggressive.

And MMA Expert makes good points sometimes, but too much of the time he posts idiotic things like his read on this fight. How anyone could be that confident on this fight after watching tape is baffling.
 
Luri has all the tools, but his performances have been inconsistent and he has never had the best tdd or urgency when taken down. Skills alone I want to bet him at -110, but not sure if dusting Pickett is enough to ease past concerns..
 
Teymur/Lando is one of the most off lines I've seen in a while. I think Teymur has a distinct advantage on the feet. He's a southpaw with a heavy preference for circling toward his open side to lead opponents into his rear kicks, so he'll be circling away from Lando's spins. Teymur has great kicks off his rear side and a solid counter left. I expect his distancing to give Lando trouble, as Lando likes to feint in and get guys committing with punches to open up entries. Teymur can hang back and force him to cover distance to open himself up for the rear hand or just kick.

Lando also likes to throw those short front kicks and occasional round kicks at range, and sets up entries with his low-line side kick. Teymur is very hard to hit clean with kicks (this is a rare skill in MMA fighters and after watching tape I consider Teymur among the best at it). In his fights against Novelli and Svensson he blocked/parried and immediately countered almost every kick thrown at him. Novelli got blasted twice drifting out of his stance on those front kicks like Lando does.

Lando uses weaves really well when he can get in on guys and force them to commit over his feints, but his head is open and he's willing to take his feet out of position when covering distance. I think Teymur's footwork and preference for long distance will force him to expose himself to counters, which he's proven willing to do.

I like Teymur's instincts in the clinch, he's good at turning out and urgent in doing so. I haven't seen much of Lando's offensive wrestling but Teymur's TDD looks fairly solid,

I set Teymur's line at -150 and am in for 5u on him. I can see Lando catching him and finishing, but I think it's unlikely he's able to consistently outstrike Teymur for 15 minutes
 
teymur KO +925? <--- not bad but passing for now i think *edit* stupid evaluated lines wouldn't let me bet, passing at +700

kelly RD3 +2100? <-- stabbing here

alcantara NSC -119 < -- hitting this (even tho i have sanders ML and sanders DEC alrdy)
 
taking craig NSC -126 for reasons i explained previously
 
Anyone know why the points handicap for Khabib/Tony is +- 3.5 not 5.5?

Woodley +5.5 -150? Interesting
 
Anyone know why the points handicap for Khabib/Tony is +- 3.5 not 5.5?

because it's a closer fight than 5.5 would suggest

(the better question is: why is twood-thompson 5.5 and not 3.5 for me!)
 
Teymur/Lando is one of the most off lines I've seen in a while. I think Teymur has a distinct advantage on the feet. He's a southpaw with a heavy preference for circling toward his open side to lead opponents into his rear kicks, so he'll be circling away from Lando's spins. Teymur has great kicks off his rear side and a solid counter left. I expect his distancing to give Lando trouble, as Lando likes to feint in and get guys committing with punches to open up entries. Teymur can hang back and force him to cover distance to open himself up for the rear hand or just kick.

Lando also likes to throw those short front kicks and occasional round kicks at range, and sets up entries with his low-line side kick. Teymur is very hard to hit clean with kicks (this is a rare skill in MMA fighters and after watching tape I consider Teymur among the best at it). In his fights against Novelli and Svensson he blocked/parried and immediately countered almost every kick thrown at him. Novelli got blasted twice drifting out of his stance on those front kicks like Lando does.

Lando uses weaves really well when he can get in on guys and force them to commit over his feints, but his head is open and he's willing to take his feet out of position when covering distance. I think Teymur's footwork and preference for long distance will force him to expose himself to counters, which he's proven willing to do.

I like Teymur's instincts in the clinch, he's good at turning out and urgent in doing so. I haven't seen much of Lando's offensive wrestling but Teymur's TDD looks fairly solid,

I set Teymur's line at -150 and am in for 5u on him. I can see Lando catching him and finishing, but I think it's unlikely he's able to consistently outstrike Teymur for 15 minutes

man i don't agree with -150. i'm on teymur at +300 and whatnot, but i cap lando like -200.

i'm slightly worried that lando might grapple with teymur, too. lando would have a bigger edge there.

i hope you're right, tho, lol.
 
because it's a closer fight than 5.5 would suggest

(the better question is: why is twood-thompson 5.5 and not 3.5 for me!)
In that case are you looking at TWood +5.5 -150?
 
In that case are you looking at TWood +5.5 -150?

i do like it, yea. but i haven't bet it. i'm already "on" that type of an outcome as is, because i have:
twood ML, twood DEC, fight starts RD4
 
Is there a betting kiosk at the tmobile arena where you can place bets or can you only do it at a casino??
 
I'm already on Woodley but I really like Woodley +5½ points at -150. Just made a substantial bet on it.
 
Man, I like so many underdogs, it's crazy. I hope it will be a night of underdogs.
Jumped on Teymur +305, Elkins +425 and +500, Ferg and I am still waiting for better odds on Woodley and Kelly
 
And MMA Expert makes good points sometimes, but too much of the time he posts idiotic things like his read on this fight. How anyone could be that confident on this fight after watching tape is baffling.
How can you not be as confident as me after watching tape, you will see on Saturday but it's very obvious to me right now that Craig will win. Pedro may have potential but he's not ready for someone like Craig, this will look like a mismatch.
 
I'm already on Woodley but I really like Woodley +5½ points at -150. Just made a substantial bet on it.

I really wish we had those here, I would put a max bet 5u on that.
 
Tony hyped lol



That was interesting, at 4:17 tony says "with the new rules i'm gonna slice and dice em". Soooo we do have the new rules in place this time? I can't imagine tony not knowing which rules are being used.
 
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