I think this went over your head. The winner is determined by total pledged electors. I never said OH is a swing state. My point is that Trump winning 270 electors was totally consistent with a 2.5% state polling error. Therefore this could not have been the standard used by Wang to arrive at his 99% nonsense. As for your quibble about the RCP average: any average that included at least RCP's polls would arrive at the same conclusion. Maybe Wang's model excluded some polls he didn't like, but then he would be even more worthy of criticism.