The War Room Bet Thread | Page 52

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Aug 26, 2016.

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  1. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    Clinton national lead up to 2.1%. RCP average was off by less than 1.1%. National polling was excellent.
     
    #1021
  2. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    RCP has the most complete collection of polls of any aggregator that I know of. Any other polling average (see: HuffPost, which excluded LA Times and other polls) would need to exclude polls that the aggregator didn't like. If Wang used an incomplete polling average, that's yet another huge mistake on his part.

    1. You started out by claiming to explain why Wang's model was wrong. You just copied Wang's own explanation (meta-margin), showing again your poor critical thinking ability and over-reliance on "experts".

    2. I showed your/Wang's meta-margin argument was wrong if you used a reasonable polling average. 2.5% or 2.2% state polling error both would have been sufficient to flip PA to Trump, assuming the RCP average or any other complete average.

    3. Now you are no longer claiming you know the reason for Wang's mistake, saying you are just reporting what he reported.

    Advice: Try to read your "experts" (Nate Silver, Paul Krugman, Sam Wang, Harry Enten,...) with the same degree of skepticism that you read the loony right wingers. Reality will come into focus much more quickly.
     
    #1022
  3. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Dang it guys. I thought that argument was going to result in some type of bet
     
    #1023
  4. Cubo de Sangre Gold Belt

    Cubo de Sangre
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    Post #1019 made homie rethink his presence. I'd totally take a stats class from @waiguoren. Who but total fucking losers dorks pussy magnets can brush up on that shit enough?
     
    #1024
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  5. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    I've been keeping my eye out. The main issue seems to be that the loony lefties have their tails between their legs at the moment.

    I think in about 1 year the deranged Trumpies will get too cocky and I will be able to attack them with multiple yuge bets. Already they are acting arrogantly in the War Room.
     
    #1025
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  6. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    You are looking to build an epic record here

    Edit- is it 4am where you are too? Tonight is fucking crazy
     
    #1026
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  7. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    Trust me when I say I am no stats expert. I am pretty good in calculus though, does that make me a pussy magnet?

    Most experts in most fields just aren't that smart, and you often can do their job better than them if you use a bit of common sense.

    Ex: Trump early voting numbers in NC looked better than Romney's. Romney won the state....yet Nate Silver and all the "experts" predicted Clinton would win NC.
     
    #1027
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  8. Cubo de Sangre Gold Belt

    Cubo de Sangre
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    If you say it's so then I'll believe you. :cool:
     
    #1028
  9. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    Nope, 5 PM. I live in China.

    Why are you staying up so late?
     
    #1029
  10. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    I was out with some friends and the night extended past the bar.
     
    #1030
  11. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    @LucasWithLidOff

    Let's go with this:

    [​IMG]
     
    #1031
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  12. JudoThrowFiasco Charming Quark

    JudoThrowFiasco
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    Permanent....


    [​IMG]
     
    #1032
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  13. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    #11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
    1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
    2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
    3. 12/29/16
    4. Avatar Bet
    5. Permanent
    Winner: Jack V Savage
     
    #1033
  14. Limbo Pete Super Samoderator Belt

    Limbo Pete
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  15. m52nickerson EXTERMINATE!

    m52nickerson
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    #1035
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  16. LucasWithLidOff Double Yellow Card

    LucasWithLidOff
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    I'm locked out of my account. Maybe Lead or another mod can update it?
     
    #1036
  17. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    @Lead?
     
    #1037
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  18. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Yea give me a minute
     
    #1038
  19. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Try it now
     
    #1039
  20. brothir Green Belt

    brothir
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    I'm the nicest guy on Sherdog, he said.

    Let's make a bet: it'll be fun, he said.
     
    #1040
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