1. New Sherdog Meme Generator! Check is out Here Use it to win a free platinum accountHere
    Dismiss Notice

The War Room Bet Thread

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Aug 26, 2016.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    The Rules:
    -Since we have this thread now, keep bet discussions in here rather than other threads. It will prevent derailing the discussions there. If you organically come up with an idea in another thread, just move the conversation over to here with whomever it is with.

    -I will try to manage the OP with the current bets going on. You both must come to an agreement on:
    1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
    2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
    3. The date the bet will be decided
    4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
    5. The duration of the reward/punishment before I will post it.
    6 (OPTIONAL) A situation which makes the bet void that isn't clear with the content in 1 & 2. This needs to be very clear if included.
    Once, you both are in agreement, tag me so I can add it.

    -Punishments are limited.
    No account/e-suicide bets as silencing part of the community isn't very WR like. This is suppose to be something fun but not fatal for our regulars here. Signature and av bets are fair game. The av/sig that will be given can be decided before or after the bet.

    -No cash bets. It can't be enforced and isn't something the site can or wants to host.

    -If there is a dispute over who won/lost the bet, you can choose a moderator to decide the result. The mod options will be Madmick, Zankou, and myself. If you both want a different moderator, each poster can decide a moderator they don't want to decide and the remaining of the three will make the call (yes, this sounds very detailed and overly complex but I'm sure this likely is going to occur and want to make it fair as possible. Eliminating one ensures both posters at least get their 2nd best choice.)

    -
    Same rules apply in this thread as any other thread in the War Room. No flaming other posters, etc.

    -I'm limiting what bets will be published. Each poster is allowed to have
    two open bets at a time just so this is easier to manage. Both posters involved in the bet must have either an account that's been around over 1 year or over 1000 posts.

    -Do not allude/mention bets in this thread that don't adhere to the rules above. For example, mentioning an account ban bet will just get the post deleted.

    -If a punishment doesn't begin at the start date in #5, the amount of time will remain paused until it begins. For example, if someone was suppose to change their Av on 1/1/16 for a one month avatar bet and they don't begin until 1/3/16, the loser must keep the av until 2/2/16.

    -Certain rules above can be suspended if approved at the time the bet is made. These rules would be the two bets at a time, post/join date requirement, and anything else that was made just to handle the flow of traffic with bets.

    If I'm missing something, I'll be sure to clarify it in the thread before editing the OP but I think this covers most of it.
    Have fun and stuff.
     
    #1
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2016
  2. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    Rankings (First 10 Bets)
    C. - @Amerikuracana 1-0
    1. - @Tropodan 1-0
    2. - @waiguoren 1-0
    2. - @Space 1-0
    4. - @Rex Kwon Do 1-0
    4. - @Hans Gruber 2-0
    5. - @Jack V Savage 1-0

    Non-Ranked (A win is needed to be ranked)
    NR- @Concurrent GOAT 0-0
    NR- @Limbo Pete 0-0
    NR- @Quipling 0-1
    NR- @VivaRevolution 0-1
    NR- @Lead 0-2
    NR- @Fawlty 0-1
    NR- @m52nickerson 0-2
    NR- @BKMMAFAN 0-1


    **Keep in mind this was the first 10 bets. There were four bets so far called after this and they definitely completely changed the rankings. We will redo rankings every ten bets.
     
    #2
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2017
  3. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    Open Bets
    #15 @Jack V Savage vs. @drstrangelov
    1. Trump's favorability rating Real Clear Politics average is 51.8 before Labor Day
    2. drstanglov- For, Jack V Savage- against
    3. 09/04/2017 (Labor Day)
    4. Hybrid- Jack's avatar or Drstranglovs sig
    5. 1 month (tentatively 09/04/17-10/03/17)
    6. Attempted or successful assassination of Trump or attack by foreign government or there is pending or concluded vote on authorization for military action before his rating goes up, the bet is null

    #16 @Lead v. @HUNTERMANIA
    1. Trump will be impeached during his first term as President
    2. HUNTERMANIA- for , Lead- against
    3. End of Trump's term or if he is impeached beforehand
    4. Signature bet
    5. 3 months
    6. If Trump is removed from office from illness, death, or assassination, the bet will be null

    #17 @waiguoren v. @rj144
    1. Trump will win the 2020 Presidential Election
    2. Waiguoren- form rj144- against
    3. 11/04/2020
    4. Signature bet
    5. 1 year
    6. Bet is null if Trump doesn't run in 2020 or pulls out of race regardless of the reason why



    Current Records (Between Rankings)
    Jack V Savage 3-0
    Hans Gruber 2-0
    Tropodan 1-0
    Space 1-0
    Rex Kwon Do 1-0
    Waiguoren 2-0


    Closed Bets

    #10 @VivaRevolution v. @Jack V Savage
    1. Trump will be at 33% or more with Bovada's betting odds
    2. VivaRevolution- For, Jack V Savage- Against
    3. 11/07/16 8:00PM ESt
    4. Signature bet
    5. 11/08/16-12/07/16
    *I will use this site to convert the betting odds to percentages http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/'
    Winner: Jack V Savage

    #1 @Fawlty v. @Tropodan (Onesided)
    1. Donald Trump wins general election
    2. Tropodan, for. Fawlty, against.
    3. 11/08/2016
    4. If Trump wins the general election, Fawlty wears av of Tropodan's choosing. Freeroll (no punishment if Tropodan loses).
    5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017
    Winner: Tropodan

    #4 @Space v. @Lead
    1. Donald Trump wins the general election
    2. Space- for, Lead- against
    3. 11/08/2016
    4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
    5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017 (Election day to Inauguration day)
    Winner: Space

    #7 @Quipling v. @Rex Kwon Do
    1. Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election
    2. Quipling : Hillary - Rex :Trump
    3. 11/08/16
    4. Av Bet- Loser of the bet changes his av to a suitably presidential picture of the winning candidate
    5.11/09/16- 12/09/16
    Winner: Rex Kwon Do

    #9 @m52nickerson v @Hans Gruber
    1. The winner of Florida's 29 electoral votes.
    2. @m52nickerson - Clinton will win, @Hans Gruber - Trump will win.
    3. 11/08/16 (tentatively)
    Winner: Hans Gruber

    #12 @Limbo Pete v. @Lead
    1. Who wins Nevada and Colorado in the 2016 Presidential Election
    2. Limbo Pete- Nevada Trump/ Colorado Clinton, Lead- Colorado Trump / Nevada Clinton
    3. 11/09/2016
    4. Signature bet
    5. 01/21/2017-02/21/2017
    6. Obviously if both states go Clinton or Trump, the bet is null
    Null

    #13 @Hans Gruber v. @Lead
    1. Trump will win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania in the 2016 Presidential election
    2. Hans - For, Lead- Against
    3. 11/09/2016
    4. Avatar bet
    5. 11/9/2016-12/9/2016
    Winner: Hans Gruber

    #14 @BKMMAFAN v. @Amerikuracana
    1. Who wins Michigan in the 2016 Presidential Election?
    2. BKMMAFAN- Clinton, Amerikuracana- Trump
    3. 11/8/16 (tentatively)
    4. Signature and Avatar Bet
    5. 3 months, likely 11/09/16-2/09/16
    Winner: Amerikuracana

    #2 @waiguoren v. @m52nickerson
    1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)
    [​IMG]
    where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
    2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight projected vote share polls plus for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
    3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
    4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
    5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016
    Winner: Waiguoren

    #5 @Concurrent GOAT v. @Rex Kwon Do
    1. Percent Margin Donald Trump beats Clinton by in US Pres. election popular vote
    2. Concurrent GOAT 0.1% to 2.0% Rex Kwon Doh 2.0%+
    3. 11/08/16
    4. Avatar bet- Winner picks the losers av
    5. 11/09/16-12/08/16 (Depends when the results are completely in)
    Null


    #6 @KnightTemplar v. @Rex Kwon Do
    1. Percent Margin Donald Trump beats Clinton by in the US Pres. election popular vote
    2. @KnightTemplar 0.1% to 2.0% @Rex Kwon Do 2.0%+
    3. 11/08/16
    4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature; signature chosen must be quote praising Adolf Hitler, Fuhrer of Germany OR a quote by Adolf Hitler himself
    5. 11/09/16-12/08/16 (Depends when the results are completely in)
    Null

    #8 @waiguoren v. @cooks1
    1. National Popular vote margin with Clinton/Trump will be <= 6.4% for Clinton
    2. Waiguoren- For Cooks1- Against
    3. 1/21/16 (Day after inauguration day)
    4. Signature Bet
    5. 01/21/16 to next US Presidential election day
    6. If Clinton simultaneously wins the popular vote by over 6.4%, but loses on the electoral map and Trump is elected on that basis, the bet will be void, as Hillary did get over 6.4% of the popular vote, but she did not win by 6.4% of the popular vote
    Winner: Waiguoren

    #11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
    1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
    2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
    3. 12/29/16
    4. Avatar Bet
    5. Permanent
    Winner: Jack V Savage

    #3 @Jack V Savage v. @mcveteran81
    1. Obama will still be president a week after the scheduled inauguration date due to declaring a state of emergency
    2. mcveteran- True Jack V Savage- False
    3. 1/27/2017 (week after scheduled inauguration day)
    4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature
    5. 1/28/2017-2/27/2017
    Winnner: Jack V Savage

     
    #3
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  4. Fawlty Silver Belt

    Fawlty
    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2015
    Messages:
    12,513
    Likes Received:
    16,085
    1. Donald Trump wins general election
    2. @Tropodan, for. Fawlty, against.
    3. Election day.
    4. If Trump wins, Fawlty wears av of Tropodan's choosing. Freeroll.
    5. From election day to inauguration day.
     
    #4
    Quipling and Tropodan like this.
  5. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    What's freeroll mean?
     
    #5
  6. ncordless Red Belt

    ncordless
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2009
    Messages:
    9,142
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    Location:
    Portlandia
    Trop ain't gambling nothing in return.
     
    #6
    Lead likes this.
  7. Fawlty Silver Belt

    Fawlty
    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2015
    Messages:
    12,513
    Likes Received:
    16,085
    That one side of the bet doesn't risk anything.
     
    #7
    Lead likes this.
  8. ncordless Red Belt

    ncordless
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2009
    Messages:
    9,142
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    Location:
    Portlandia
    I like it, though the rules are vague on the legality of e-suicide via pron as a wager.
     
    #8
  9. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    [​IMG]
     
    #9
  10. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    Don't do dat
     
    #10
    ncordless likes this.
  11. Cubo de Sangre Gold Belt

    Cubo de Sangre
    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2014
    Messages:
    21,368
    Likes Received:
    13,447
    Location:
    Hell
    Now set up some v-cash bookie action @Lead Salad. Give everyone a chance to get in on the fun.
     
    #11
    UpaLoompa likes this.
  12. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    That could be in the future but I doubt it. The people who manage that thing are already overworked. We will try this for now.
     
    #12
    Cubo de Sangre likes this.
  13. Mondo Freaks Yeezy Season 4

    Mondo Freaks
    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2013
    Messages:
    13,401
    Likes Received:
    9,524
    Location:
    Phoenix, AZ
    I bet Gary Johnson will get at least 10% of the popular vote.

    1 year sig bet

    come get some pussies
     
    #13
    Fawlty likes this.
  14. Mondo Freaks Yeezy Season 4

    Mondo Freaks
    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2013
    Messages:
    13,401
    Likes Received:
    9,524
    Location:
    Phoenix, AZ
    Just fyi. Johnson is polling around 8-10% right now.

    but in 2012, he got 3rd place with just .99% of the overall votes. Nader got .56% in 2008.

    Its a shitty bet for me but I think 3rd parties will get a huge turnout.

    The odds are very much in your favor!
     
    #14
  15. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    I don't think it's that bad. I could either scenario happening
     
    #15
  16. Cubo de Sangre Gold Belt

    Cubo de Sangre
    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2014
    Messages:
    21,368
    Likes Received:
    13,447
    Location:
    Hell
    This thread needs a theme song.


     
    #16
    uncommon likes this.
  17. ncordless Red Belt

    ncordless
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2009
    Messages:
    9,142
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    Location:
    Portlandia
    You should change your terms to all third party votes > 10% then. Would give you more even odds on a year sig bet.
     
    #17
  18. ncordless Red Belt

    ncordless
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2009
    Messages:
    9,142
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    Location:
    Portlandia
    You gotta be specific with these things.

    Another question. Is it that mod challenges must be agreed on by both parties? Or each person can choose to exclude one mod? Are these exclusions "for cause" or can we vote to exclude one just because we want to? I only ask because their is a strategy in these things.
     
    #18
  19. Lead /Led/

    Lead
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2009
    Messages:
    27,622
    Likes Received:
    8,401
    Location:
    Around Pittsburgh
    I'll give an example.

    Poster 1 and Poster 2 don't agree on who won/lost the bet. The next step to resolve the dispute is to have a mod decide it. Poster 1 wants Mod 1 to decide. Poster 2 thinks Mod 1 is biased and wants Mod 2 to decide. Since they refuse to agree on a mod, they now decide which mod they do not want to decide. Poster 1 says Mod 2 can't decide. Poster 2 says Mod 1 can't decide. The remaining Mod (Mod 3) decides.

    I know it sounds overly complicated but it ensures both posters at least got their 2nd best choice for picking a mod. This really should never have to happen but I know it would become an issue and if a person was still complaining after a process that tried to be beyond fair, it's on them at that point for complaining.
     
    #19
    Cubo de Sangre likes this.
  20. ncordless Red Belt

    ncordless
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2009
    Messages:
    9,142
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    Location:
    Portlandia
    If both parties agree, can they get an en banc hearing?
     
    #20
    Jack V Savage likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "fd5733925866a04e50edd70f38dfaa35"
monitoring_string = "603ac9fff68f23709f2a42bf5e29272b"