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Indent the third line, please. Trying to get proper alignment of the center text.Work for you?
Indent the third line, please. Trying to get proper alignment of the center text.Work for you?
Done.Indent the third line, please. Trying to get proper alignment of the center text.
I think we need an update in the standings.A little late on closing this one but good job on keeping this thread active guys
#18 @SidJustice v. @waiguoren
1. Neil Gorsuch will not be confirmed to the Supreme Court on or before 4/7/2017
2. SidJustice: Agree/ waiguoren: Disagree
3. 4/8/2017
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year
Winnner: Waiguoren
I think we need an update in the standings.
Yeah. I'll bet you that the Rs keep control.Any predictions about the House of Representatives in 2018?
Yeah. I'll bet you that the Rs keep control.
23 or lessHow many seats do you think they'll lose?
23 or less
To be clear, this is not an official offer. Just trying to feel you out, giving a ballpark, looking for possible bets. Any bet between undefeated champions will likely need a lot of massaging of terms before finalization anyways.21 would swing the House. So your original offer is better. Not the odds I usually like, but I'd be the favorite. I'll think about it.
To be clear, this is not an official offer. Just trying to feel you out, giving a ballpark, looking for possible bets. Any bet between undefeated champions will likely need a lot of massaging of terms before finalization anyways.
My main interpretation is that a big piece of the 2008 Obama coalition was young, unreliable and normally apolitical types swept up by the young, handsome, eloquent half-black guy. To these flaky kids, Obama was a rockstar and worth the time to go vote for---but congressional elections are just so boring by comparison. Frankly, my own partner falls into this category. Add in an energized conservative movement (Obama had just appointed two radical SCOTUS justices and PPACA had recently been signed into law), and you had a recipe for big Democratic defeats.I originally probed on it because I've seen a lot of partisans suggest that Democratic losses while Obama was president were indicative of something significant (and, of course, negative) rather than just the normal pattern. Seems like an opportunity for me if people really believe that narrative.
My main interpretation is that a big piece of the 2008 Obama coalition was young, unreliable and normally apolitical types swept up by the young, handsome, eloquent half-black guy. To these flaky kids, Obama was a rockstar and worth the time to go vote for---but congressional elections are just so boring by comparison. Frankly, my own partner falls into this category. Add in an energized conservative movement (Obama had just appointed two radical SCOTUS justices and PPACA had recently been signed into law), and you had a recipe for big Democratic defeats.
The calculation will be different in 2018, I have some preliminary analysis but I will keep it to myself.
Do you think Gorsuch is radical?Also, side note, "radical SCOTUS justices"? WTF? If you just mean "perceived as radical by Republican mouth-breathers and the Republican media complex," sure. That's part of the reason that the party out of the WH has an advantage.
What counts as an "advanced degree"? For purposes of showing education level, only STEM degrees should count IMO. These are the only degrees that actually require critical thinking to obtain. Moreover, academia outside of STEM is often in direct with "education".I think that might have been some of the coalition, but no bigger a part than people with advanced degrees (both small compared to the total).
Do you think Gorsuch is radical?
What counts as an "advanced degree"? For purposes of showing education level, only STEM degrees should count IMO. These are the only degrees that actually require critical thinking to obtain. Moreover, academia outside of STEM is often in direct with "education".
Take as your standard Math/physics/CS/Engineering/chemistry BA/BS and above, all other STEM fields MA/MS and above. I'll guess if you narrow the pool of degrees in this way, the Rep/Dem breakdown wouldn't exceed 39/61.
Well, first whether he is or not is unrelated to the fact that Obama's appointments were not even close to radical. But second, no, I wouldn't say that he's at all radical. Probably about where Scalia was. I don't think radicals really have a chance to through the system (meaning more than just the nomination process, but the whole resume building to get nominated) and on the SCOTUS.
Well, first whether he is or not is unrelated to the fact that Obama's appointments were not even close to radical. But second, no, I wouldn't say that he's at all radical. Probably about where Scalia was. I don't think radicals really have a chance to through the system (meaning more than just the nomination process, but the whole resume building to get nominated) and on the SCOTUS.