The War Room Bet Thread v2 | Page 6

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    I realized about mid-way through that we will not be able to resolve this dispute. Basically, my view is that
    1. The major goal of education is to develop critical thinking. So "educated person" really means "good critical thinker with some basic knowledge".
    2. Critical thinkers are going to be 90+% independent. The remaining will break slightly D.

    A lot of "scientists" are not good at critical thinking (I used to work in a prestigious lab at a prestigious medical school and met plenty of this type), and the degree mills are churning out an ever higher percentage of people who are horrible at critical thinking. But then Pew/Gallup/whatever is not going to have data broken down by critical thinking ability and so we might as well drop it.
     
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  2. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    This is exactly what I needed this Monday
     
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  3. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    Thomas is just a Republican partisan. That's a big portion of the country so not something I'd call radical. We'll see about Gorsuch, but I expect the same (he'll come up with smart ideas for why whatever the party wants is good from a legal perspective). Note that Scalia recommended Kagan by name.

    1. I said "people with advanced degrees," meaning Masters or above. But aside from that, I agree with 1, which is why I don't endorse the restricted view you put forth.
    2. Not really. "Independent" voters are either partisans who don't want the label (about 8%-10% of self-identified Rs and Ds will vote the other way in elections, which is about the same as "R/D-leaning independents") or people who don't follow politics. Someone with a coherent worldview who follows the issues will have a clear, consistent preference. In another thread, I posted a poll on that came with a test. It showed that the highly educated were more likely to be liberal than the general public (and far more likely to be liberal than conservative), but they were actually pulling from the "inconsistent" pile rather than the conservative pile.

    "A lot of (X large group) are (Y)" is pretty much a universally true statement.

    I think the point I made about taxation really explains it. Right-wingers tend to support policy that they think is *right* rather than that they think will have good results, and then they tend to make poor arguments after the fact (that is, after forming positions) for why that policy will also have good results. That tends to turn off more critical thinkers.

    If right-wingers were just honest--"I think taxation is immoral and I fear that climate-change concern will lead to increased taxation" rather than "climate change is a hoax"--they'd be more effective with critical thinkers (though less effective with the general public).
     
    #103
  4. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    False. Thomas's views on civil asset forfeiture and the expansive use of the ICC to regulate narcotics are in opposition to the Republican orthodoxy. He is an originalist.
     
    #104
  5. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    I think when you have to dig that deep for an example (and it's not even a ruling), you're making my point for me. I'm not even aware that the GOP as an institution has an opinion on the issue and it's one that has a lot of bipartisan support from the public.
     
    #105
  6. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    Concede this point. You do not get to determine which definition of "radical" I use in my writing.


    Scalia did plenty of that, but Gorsuch is different. The guy is wedded to textualism and his decisions carry no obvious left/right bias. The "frozen trucker" dissent nearly brought a tear to my eye with its incisiveness.

    I assumed you were using higher degrees as a proxy for education. My point is, it's is a poor proxy. 50 years ago, it was a good proxy.
     
    #106
  7. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    The drug war is a Republican policy. Gonzales v. Raich is the dissent. Look it up.
     
    #107
  8. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    You can use "radical" to mean anything you want. But obviously Kagan and Sotomayor are not actually radical as the term is used by other people (unless other people are just using it to mean, "someone who disagrees with me"). They're both moderately left-leaning on a right-leaning court (moreso Kagan--Sotomayor is still a mainstream liberal but to the far left of the court).

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/31/us/politics/trump-supreme-court-nominee.html

    It's still a good proxy.
     
    #108
  9. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    Based on the low level of insight contained in your SCOTUS posts and your inability to accept a legitimate use of the term "radical" in a way that the political press does not ordinarily condone, I am convinced that your understanding of the Court comes primarily from media portrayals as opposed to actual reading of SCOTUS decisions. I am coming nearer to the conclusion that you are unable to comprehend civics absent tribal affiliation.

    Weaknesses in your analytical ability will be exposed when you lose a bet to me.
     
    #109
  10. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    Thought you were referring to his recent comments about civil asset forfeiture and the use of the ICC to regulate narcotics. But if you meant to refer to a 12-year-old case that divided Republicans, I again think that it's telling that you have to reach so far. Maybe, since this is the Bet Thread, we can come up with something involving predicting Thomas' positions. We could work out the language later (and a better timeline), but my claim would be that he'll go along with the GOP preferences on every case for the rest of his life.

    Well, you can read through my posting history. Your own tribalism (which you also demonstrate in describing a moderate like Kagan as a "radical") is throwing you off the trail here.

    Side note: Neither of us are lawyers. You have provided no insight at all into your thinking on the SCOTUS. I've been drawing on other analysts and tools for my own positions there. I think if you read through your own contributions here with a critical eye, you'll be disappointed.
     
    #110
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2017
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  11. Limbo Pete Super Samoderator Belt

    Limbo Pete
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    Douche factor in this thread just increased by an order of magnitude imo
     
    #111
  12. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    He's getting a little flustered, I think. Still like him.
     
    #112
  13. Quipling Black Belt

    Quipling
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    That stat is a bit misleading. SCOTUS only hears about 1% of the cases presented to them, and these are generally the most controversial. And Thomas and Ginsburg are the most consistent dissenters on the court, including from their own wings.

    What this comes down to is that when dealing with the most controversial cases, even the most fractitious and ideologically-opposed justices still agree 62% of the time.
     
    #113
  14. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Forget if it's WaPo or 538 but they had this awesome interactive infographic where you could mix the justices and see the amount of time a group agreed together or each individual with another.
     
    #114
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  15. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    Let's set it up. My claim is that Thomas will be on the other side of one of Roberts/Kennedy/Alito (your pick) in a Court decision before he dies.
     
    #115
  16. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    Odd way to go about it as Roberts and Kennedy aren't simply partisans. There are also a lot of cases where there isn't a partisan element. What I'd want to isolate are the cases that are important to the GOP.
     
    #116
  17. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    How do you propose we do that?
     
    #117
  18. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    Not sure. I'll think about it or you can.
     
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  19. Limbo Pete Super Samoderator Belt

    Limbo Pete
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    Sounds like you'll end up betting on how he will vote in a specific case.
    I imagine we will get some big ones soon.
     
    #119
  20. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    You claimed that Thomas is a Republican partisan and implied that he twists his legal reasoning to fit desired (Republican-favored) outcomes.

    Your claim is totally off base, but it's impossible to refute directly (or have a bet on the matter) if you don't provide some kind of definition for "Republican-favored outcome".
     
    #120

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