The War Room Bet Thread v2 | Page 2

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    do you think tarrifs have a net positive change on a country's economy? If conditional, tarrifs from the US perspective.
     
    #21
  2. VivaRevolution Yellow Card

    VivaRevolution
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    Depends on if it is used as a stick to punish bad behavior. I don't think there is a economic benefit to a tariff in itself.
     
    #22
  3. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    What countries would you impose one and for what type of bad behavior
     
    #23
  4. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    I don't think it's predictable, really. If he thinks that Trump will lead some kind of growth explosion, I'd probably be willing to bet against that.

    I usually propose stuff when I see people making outlandish claims. So I'll just have to keep my eye out for Wai to let his bias steer him that way.
     
    #24
  5. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    Just lol that you think so little of me. I will vanquish you.
     
    #25
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  6. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    I don't think that little of your capabilities, but everyone has biases.

    Do you expect any positive results that could be attributed to Trump? We might have something there.
     
    #26
  7. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    I think the wall will begin construction within the next year.
     
    #27
  8. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    I've just heard many call 2% GDP growth the new normal so I thought you may find people who differ and thing 4% is possible to return to. Jeb was pushing hard on that promise during his campaign so I think it could be seen as a somewhat partisan issue open to bias
     
    #28
  9. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    I wouldn't call that a positive result. It's a means to an end, isn't it? The number of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico has been falling for several years anyway so I wouldn't even bet against that continuing.

    I see the wall being like this:



    Yeah, Bush's claim was absurd. Just liked the number 4%, but he had no plausible mechanism to increase growth at all, and neither does Trump. It could just fluctuate up to 4% for a year or something, though. Increasing immigration is the only policy I can see delivery it consistently, though.
     
    #29
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2017
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  10. Limbo Pete Super Samoan Belt

    Limbo Pete
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    You and Jack fish for the same kind of bets. I don't see you guys agreeing to anything tbh.
     
    #30
  11. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    He's been willing to take a lot more chances. The Silver thing was probably a near-even shot, and the margin bet at the time looked like maybe a 2-in-3 shot (made at a high point in Clinton's support IIRC). His outstanding one about 2020 is near even. Two of my bets were basically can't-loses for me, and the other was equivalent to his bet with cooks.

    Betting here is like playing fantasy baseball with someone who doesn't follow the sport and wants to trade you a star who had a shitty April for a nobody who got off to a hot start.
     
    #31
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2017
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  12. VivaRevolution Yellow Card

    VivaRevolution
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    I would set standards of improvement for labor and environmental standards. Hypothetically let's say 5% reduction in pollutants, and 5 % increase for labor benefits and wages yearly. Some kind of sliding scale that changes the number based on economic performance.

    Huge tax break if you meet the standard, huge tax penalty if you dont.

    China with its 5-10% GDP growth would have higher expectations than let's say Chile.
     
    #32
  13. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    No.....

    I used a very simple but nearly bulletproof method to beat Silver. I could do it again easily.

    Silver's model did not take account of early voting. FL and NC early voting data were very instructive and indicated what I had already suspected: polling was significantly underestimating GOP enthusiasm in these states.

    If you look at my proposed margins, I left PA the same as Silver's since I wasn't sure if the Trump rustbelt strategy was actually working. As a side note, that's the one thing I missed in predicting this election---did not realize the extent to which the rustbelt will vote as a unit if a demagogue like Trump promises the JERBs will come back.

    I slightly adjusted OH in Trump's direction based on numerous anecdotal reports of huge Trump enthusiasm in normally apolitical areas---but only by 0.2% because I only needed to beat Silver.

    Then I adjusted FL and NC according to the early voting numbers.

    Now there was really no need to use Silver's own margins; I could just have easily have taken the polling averages but in the interest of being extra careful I used Silver's own.

    In summary, the method I used to smash Silver is replicable and I will show that again in 2020.
     
    #33
  14. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    I will grant you that you're better at fishing for crazies than I, but I think that has more to do with your post count and overall time spent in the forum. Also we are on a cage fighting website, therefore more right-wing nuts here than left-wing nuts. Your posting style tends to enrage the psycho right wingers more than mine.
     
    #34
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  15. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    Before the Bet thread idea started, I won a bet with Blade (left-wing nut who thought Bernie was going to win long past the time it was clear he had no chance). I don't discriminate. Nuts from anywhere are welcome to lose bets to me.
     
    #35
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  16. kpt018 Silver Belt

    kpt018
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    No bets on whether the AHCA will pass today?
     
    #36
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  17. SidJustice Master of the world and the universe

    SidJustice
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    I'll take someone on that Gorsuch will not be confirmed by 4/7. Sig bet, AV bet, whatever.
     
    #37
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  18. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    I'd scan that Supreme Court mega thread for people who think he will get through and then tag them here for a better chance
     
    #38
  19. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    I'll take it

    Sig bet

    @Lead
     
    #39
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2017
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  20. SidJustice Master of the world and the universe

    SidJustice
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    Sure, sounds good.

    1. Neil Gorsuch will not be confirmed to the Supreme Court by 4/7/2017
    2. @SidJustice: Agree/ @waiguoren: Disagree
    3. 4/7/2017
    4. Winner decides loser's signature
    5. 30 days.

    Everything lookd good @waiguoren and @Lead?
     
    #40
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