The War Room Bet Thread v2

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    The Rules:
    -Since we have this thread now, keep bet discussions in here rather than other threads. It will prevent derailing the discussions there. If you organically come up with an idea in another thread, just move the conversation over to here with whomever it is with.

    -I will try to manage the OP with the current bets going on. You both must come to an agreement on:
    1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
    2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
    3. The date the bet will be decided
    4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
    5. The duration of the reward/punishment before I will post it.
    6 (OPTIONAL) A situation which makes the bet void that isn't clear with the content in 1 & 2. This needs to be very clear if included.
    Once, you both are in agreement, tag me so I can add it.

    -Punishments are limited.
    No account/e-suicide bets as silencing part of the community isn't very WR like. This is suppose to be something fun but not fatal for our regulars here. Signature and av bets are fair game. The av/sig that will be given can be decided before or after the bet.

    -No cash bets. It can't be enforced and isn't something the site can or wants to host.

    -If there is a dispute over who won/lost the bet, you can choose a moderator to decide the result. The mod options will be Madmick, Zankou, and myself. If you both want a different moderator, each poster can decide a moderator they don't want to decide and the remaining of the three will make the call (yes, this sounds very detailed and overly complex but I'm sure this likely is going to occur and want to make it fair as possible. Eliminating one ensures both posters at least get their 2nd best choice.)

    -
    Same rules apply in this thread as any other thread in the War Room. No flaming other posters, etc.

    -Both posters involved in the bet must have either an account that's been around over 1 year or over 1000 posts. Exceptions can be given. If the volume of bets becomes frequent, I will limit the amount of pending bets per user. I don't expect this to happen.

    -Do not allude/mention bets in this thread that don't adhere to the rules above. For example, mentioning an account ban bet will just get the post deleted.

    -If a punishment doesn't begin at the start date in #5, the amount of time will remain paused until it begins. For example, if someone was suppose to change their Av on 1/1/16 for a one month avatar bet and they don't begin until 1/3/16, the loser must keep the av until 2/2/16.

    -Certain rules above can be suspended if approved at the time the bet is made. These rules would be the two bets at a time, post/join date requirement, and anything else that was made just to handle the flow of traffic with bets.

    If I'm missing something, I'll be sure to clarify it in the thread before editing the OP but I think this covers most of it.
    Have fun and stuff.

    Previous Threads

    The War Room Bet Thread
     
    #1
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  2. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Rankings (First 10 Bets)
    C. - @Amerikuracana 1-0
    1. - @Tropodan 1-0
    2. - @waiguoren 1-0
    2. - @Space 1-0
    4. - @Rex Kwon Do 1-0
    4. - @Hans Gruber 2-0
    6. - @Jack V Savage 1-0

    Non-Ranked (A win is needed to be ranked)
    NR- @Concurrent GOAT 0-0
    NR- @Limbo Pete 0-0
    NR- @Quipling 0-1
    NR- @VivaRevolution 0-1
    NR- @Lead 0-2
    NR- @Fawlty 0-1
    NR- @m52nickerson 0-2
    NR- @BKMMAFAN 0-1


    **Keep in mind this was the first 10 bets. There were four bets so far called after this and they definitely completely changed the rankings. We will redo rankings every ten bets.
     
    #2
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2017
  3. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Open Bets
    #15 @Jack V Savage vs. @drstrangelov
    1. Trump's favorability rating Real Clear Politics average is 51.8 before Labor Day
    2. drstanglov- For, Jack V Savage- against
    3. 09/04/2017 (Labor Day)
    4. Hybrid- Jack's avatar or Drstranglovs sig
    5. 1 month (tentatively 09/04/17-10/03/17)
    6. Attempted or successful assassination of Trump or attack by foreign government or there is pending or concluded vote on authorization for military action before his rating goes up, the bet is null

    #16 @Lead v. @HUNTERMANIA
    1. Trump will be impeached during his first term as President
    2. HUNTERMANIA- for , Lead- against
    3. End of Trump's term or if he is impeached beforehand
    4. Signature bet
    5. 3 months
    6. If Trump is removed from office from illness, death, or assassination, the bet will be null

    #17 @waiguoren v. @rj144
    1. Trump will win the 2020 Presidential Election
    2. Waiguoren- for rj144- against
    3. 11/04/2020
    4. Signature bet
    5. 1 year
    6. Bet is null if Trump doesn't run in 2020 or pulls out of race regardless of the reason why

    #19. @waiguoren v. @konagold
    1. President Donald Trump resigns or is impeached on or before June 2, 2018
    2. @konagold - for @waiguoren- against
    3. 06/09/2018
    4. Signature bet
    5. 1 year (est 6/9/18-6/8/19)

    #20. @Fawlty v. @HomerThompson
    1. Flynn, Stone, Manafort, Page, Kushner, Don Jr, Eric, President Trump, Ivanka, Sessions, DeVos, Preibus, Ryan, Pruitt, Pompeo, Bannon, or Perry will be formally criminally indicted by 23:59 EST 15 June 2018
    2. @HomerThompson- 2 or more indicted, @Fawlty- 1 will be indicted, Tie- 0 are indicted
    3. 06/15/18
    4. Signature bet
    5. 3 months

    Current Records (Between Rankings)
    Jack V Savage 3-0
    Hans Gruber 2-0
    Tropodan 1-0
    Space 1-0
    Rex Kwon Do 1-0
    Waiguoren 3-0


    Closed Bets

    #10 @VivaRevolution v. @Jack V Savage
    1. Trump will be at 33% or more with Bovada's betting odds
    2. VivaRevolution- For, Jack V Savage- Against
    3. 11/07/16 8:00PM ESt
    4. Signature bet
    5. 11/08/16-12/07/16
    *I will use this site to convert the betting odds to percentages http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/'
    Winner: Jack V Savage

    #1 @Fawlty v. @Tropodan (Onesided)
    1. Donald Trump wins general election
    2. Tropodan, for. Fawlty, against.
    3. 11/08/2016
    4. If Trump wins the general election, Fawlty wears av of Tropodan's choosing. Freeroll (no punishment if Tropodan loses).
    5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017
    Winner: Tropodan

    #4 @Space v. @Lead
    1. Donald Trump wins the general election
    2. Space- for, Lead- against
    3. 11/08/2016
    4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
    5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017 (Election day to Inauguration day)
    Winner: Space

    #7 @Quipling v. @Rex Kwon Do
    1. Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election
    2. Quipling : Hillary - Rex :Trump
    3. 11/08/16
    4. Av Bet- Loser of the bet changes his av to a suitably presidential picture of the winning candidate
    5.11/09/16- 12/09/16
    Winner: Rex Kwon Do

    #9 @m52nickerson v @Hans Gruber
    1. The winner of Florida's 29 electoral votes.
    2. @m52nickerson - Clinton will win, @Hans Gruber - Trump will win.
    3. 11/08/16 (tentatively)
    Winner: Hans Gruber

    #12 @Limbo Pete v. @Lead
    1. Who wins Nevada and Colorado in the 2016 Presidential Election
    2. Limbo Pete- Nevada Trump/ Colorado Clinton, Lead- Colorado Trump / Nevada Clinton
    3. 11/09/2016
    4. Signature bet
    5. 01/21/2017-02/21/2017
    6. Obviously if both states go Clinton or Trump, the bet is null
    Null

    #13 @Hans Gruber v. @Lead
    1. Trump will win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania in the 2016 Presidential election
    2. Hans - For, Lead- Against
    3. 11/09/2016
    4. Avatar bet
    5. 11/9/2016-12/9/2016
    Winner: Hans Gruber

    #14 @BKMMAFAN v. @Amerikuracana
    1. Who wins Michigan in the 2016 Presidential Election?
    2. BKMMAFAN- Clinton, Amerikuracana- Trump
    3. 11/8/16 (tentatively)
    4. Signature and Avatar Bet
    5. 3 months, likely 11/09/16-2/09/16
    Winner: Amerikuracana

    #2 @waiguoren v. @m52nickerson
    1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)
    [​IMG]
    where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
    2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight projected vote share polls plus for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
    3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
    4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
    5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016
    Winner: Waiguoren

    #5 @Concurrent GOAT v. @Rex Kwon Do
    1. Percent Margin Donald Trump beats Clinton by in US Pres. election popular vote
    2. Concurrent GOAT 0.1% to 2.0% Rex Kwon Doh 2.0%+
    3. 11/08/16
    4. Avatar bet- Winner picks the losers av
    5. 11/09/16-12/08/16 (Depends when the results are completely in)
    Null


    #6 @KnightTemplar v. @Rex Kwon Do
    1. Percent Margin Donald Trump beats Clinton by in the US Pres. election popular vote
    2. @KnightTemplar 0.1% to 2.0% @Rex Kwon Do 2.0%+
    3. 11/08/16
    4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature; signature chosen must be quote praising Adolf Hitler, Fuhrer of Germany OR a quote by Adolf Hitler himself
    5. 11/09/16-12/08/16 (Depends when the results are completely in)
    Null

    #8 @waiguoren v. @cooks1
    1. National Popular vote margin with Clinton/Trump will be b>
    2. Waiguoren- For Cooks1- Against
    3. 1/21/16 (Day after inauguration day)
    4. Signature Bet
    5. 01/21/16 to next US Presidential election day
    6. If Clinton simultaneously wins the popular vote by over 6.4%, but loses on the electoral map and Trump is elected on that basis, the bet will be void, as Hillary did get over 6.4% of the popular vote, but she did not win by 6.4% of the popular vote
    Winner: Waiguoren

    #11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
    1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
    2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
    3. 12/29/16
    4. Avatar Bet
    5. Permanent
    Winner: Jack V Savage

    #3 @Jack V Savage v. @mcveteran81
    1. Obama will still be president a week after the scheduled inauguration date due to declaring a state of emergency
    2. mcveteran- True Jack V Savage- False
    3. 1/27/2017 (week after scheduled inauguration day)
    4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature
    5. 1/28/2017-2/27/2017
    Winnner: Jack V Savage

    #18 @SidJustice v. @waiguoren
    1. Neil Gorsuch will not be confirmed to the Supreme Court on or before 4/7/2017
    2. SidJustice: Agree/ waiguoren: Disagree
    3. 4/8/2017
    4. Signature bet
    5. 1 year
    Winnner: Waiguoren
     
    #3
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
  4. KONE Double Yellow Card

    KONE
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    <6>
     
    #4
  5. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Yea, some of these clauses...

    I guess it's better than the guy who wanted to just flat out bet if Hillary would be dead within a year I believe.
     
    #5
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  6. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    I'm changing the following comment in the OP
    To this:
     
    #6
  7. Cubo de Sangre Gold Belt

    Cubo de Sangre
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    Thread needs a theme song.


     
    #7
    NC252, Limbo Pete and Lead like this.
  8. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    I don't remember that guy. That one is right up my alley (betting that highly improbable things won't happen with lunatics who are sure they will).
     
    #8
  9. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    It was right around when she fell during the 9-11 memorial. He offered it up to anyone and I kinda told him it was a bad idea for us to wager on those things.

    There definitely have been quite a few outlandish claims followed up with no bet when challenged. I think the thread is doing some good on that part.
     
    #9
  10. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    #10
  11. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    Looks like one man stands above all (no champion"s"), but a title defense is fine. If Hans were still around (suspicious how he spammed Trump ads and then disappeared after the election), I'm sure we could find something. Not sure about you. What are your craziest beliefs?
     
    #11
  12. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    Alas, so far it seems you have the crazier views, e.g. that Clinton would win in a landslide.

    I think Trump will serve a full term. Crazy enough for you? If not, come back with your own crazy belief.
     
    #12
  13. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    My belief was that the polls and betting markets reflected the best guess about how the race would go, and I suspected that a better turnout operation could lead her to outperform polls slightly. Nothing crazy about that. The polls were pretty accurate, and there was reason to suspect (not necessarily conclude) that turnout operations could lead to a bump. I don't think the fact that a 2-1 underdog won means that everyone who expected the favorite to win was crazy or even wrong in their estimation of the odds. Stuff with a 1 in 3 chance of happening actually happening is not Earth-shattering.

    Not crazy enough for me. I'd say that his chances of not doing so are higher than any president we've had (age, health, mental instability, corruption, unpopularity) but still far worse than even (that is, it's far more likely than not that he'll finish). Would you be willing to bet that all of his cabinet members serve a full year?
     
    #13
  14. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    No.

    I'll bet you that Sessions serves a full year.
     
    #14
  15. Jack V Savage Funklord of the USA and the Nicest Guy on Sherdog

    Jack V Savage
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    The last (non-acting) AG to last less than a year was Elliot Richardson (resigned rather than obey Nixon's unethical order to fire Archibald Cox) in 1973. There have been 14 since, not including Sessions. Before Richarson, it was Nicholas Katzenbach in 1966, who left the office when he got a higher appointment (Secretary of State), and actually served over a year if you count his time as acting AG. Before that, we go to Harlan Stone in 1925, who left to join the SCOTUS.

    So obviously that's not a bet I'd take. I would say that Sessions has a much smaller chance of lasting a full year than the history would suggest (and that ethically, he should resign now), but it's still way better than even.
     
    #15
  16. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
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    Your turn.
     
    #16
  17. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Ahh snap. Two of the top contenders taking shots at each other. Would be interesting to see a bet between you two before the 20 bet rankings. That or find more takers elsewhere.
     
    #17
  18. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    Also, Hans went MIA in December after the POTWR ended. Supposedly his wife got on his case for interneting too much. Glad he stayed around to the end of that. I even checked out for a good month after. @JDragon definitely was put through a gauntlet as well.
     
    #18
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  19. Lead /Led/

    Lead
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    @waiguoren @Jack V Savage

    Maybe you have differences on what GDP growth will be with Trump in office?

    @VivaRevolution might have some strong views on where it might head with a new direction on trade policy possibly coming
     
    #19
  20. VivaRevolution Silver Belt

    VivaRevolution
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    I've never been so sure that we have no clue what is going on.

    Saw Trump pushing for a "Boarder tax", fancy phrase for protectionist tariff. I don't think he will get it past the Chamber of Commerce, oops, I mean Republican held congress and house.

    I wouldn't bet on the sun rising right now. Anyone that thinks they have a clue to what is going on, lives in a fairy tale.
     
    #20
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