Dustin's recovery, conditioning, and experience helps him weather the early storm in the first round. Poirier will begin to establish his striking range, and effective clinch work midway through the second as Connor slows down a bit. By the third round Dustin takes over completely with a take down, and quickly advances from half guard into side mount, doing damage as he progresses. Dustin will finish Connor in the third/fourth round by Sub, or TKO via gnp.
Connor does have the ability to finish the fight. Dustin has been hurt more than a few times, but if he is unable to put him away early, Dustin will break him in the later rounds. I would rather see Dustin face a more highly ranked opponent though. Lamas would have been my first choice.