Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - May, 2017

[ill800]

No Leonard tonight?! Wow shocking

*rips up Spurs ticket*

Hit gs for another half unit. They just have too many good shooters, even at -8

 

[iGnP]

Hit gs for another half unit. They just have too many good shooters, even at -8

Laying 8 on the road against a Popovic team in a must win has to be -EV, honestly. Especially after the blow out in game 2. I'm not advocating a play on the Spurs but I think this game is definitely a "pass and look to live bet"

 

[ill800]

Laying 8 on the road against a Popovic team in a must win has to be -EV, honestly. Especially after the blow out in game 2. I'm not advocating a play on the Spurs but I think this game is definitely a "pass and look to live bet"

I would tend to agree but the live betting On gs has been crap with the books.

I'm usually always on live bet only for basketball

Without Leonard, I would not cap the game at evens. every playoff game is almost a must win. Boston almost lost by 50 yesterday in a must win.

The disparity between cavs gs and the rest of the league is crazy right now.

 

[iGnP]

I would tend to agree but the live betting On gs has been crap with the books.

I'm usually always on live bet only for basketball

Without Leonard, I would not cap the game at evens. every playoff game is almost a must win. Boston almost lost by 50 yesterday in a must win.

The disparity between cavs gs and the rest of the league is crazy right now.

You can't let the Cavs series influence how you bet this series but I understand why laying 8 is tempting after watching last night's game. Totally different dynamic in this series. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if today turned out to be a close game. The Warriors have a terrible habit of playing sloppy for extended periods of time and the Spurs can still play defense. Shooting is also much different when you're on the road. I'm just playing devil's advocate, though. Warriors are more than capable of winning this by 20+ by halftime.

 

[cberasi]

Anyone have an opinion on if Ducks series price at -105 has value with it tied up and Ducks having home ice advantage and Johansen being knocked out for the rest of the series?

I bet Nashville -125 before the series started but thinking about going the other way now with Johansen out and Ducks having home advantage. Mike Fisher is questionable tonight too.

 

[iGnP]

gift line?

Dodgers/Marlins o8.5 (-105) risk: 1.05u

 

[BigNick100]

It's looks like the betting public feels the same way cause they have been hitting gs as well.

I took the points back when it was -105

The spurs don't have a Chance without Leonard and he's questionable for tonight although I think he plays.

I think -6 will look like a steal by the end of the game. Had cavs yesterday at -105 for 5 pts. Live bet celtics at +30.5. Felt they would be playing starters and cavs would be playing second string

I was wrong on that one

Gs up to -8 right now at -110

I think I'd rather live bet them. Even when they get down by ten books are hesitant to give them points though

Update: Leonard has been ruled out

Man I was thinking the same thing. Hit celtics for +24, then +27 then +30 for the first half when I saw the Cavs on that run. Didn't think the biggest halftime lead in playoff history would occur.

 

[EzFlyer]

Anyone have an opinion on if Ducks series price at -105 has value with it tied up and Ducks having home ice advantage and Johansen being knocked out for the rest of the series?

I bet Nashville -125 before the series started but thinking about going the other way now with Johansen out and Ducks having home advantage. Mike Fisher is questionable tonight too.

coinflippy to me. i have O5.5/O6.0 games and anaheim +1 games from the start, just riding them out

 

[Oblivian]

Hell of a spot. Dropping a few units on field over DJ.

D. Johnson at +1 for the day after 7 holes and J. Day at -6 feels good. Kokrak is choking though. We still have 12 golfers ahead of D. Johnson though. In my opinion, the only way the play was off is if D. Johnson is within 1 to 2 strokes at the end of the day and only 5 or so golfers within reach.

This is pretty common with golf. When Spieth was really hot, his odds got ridiculous. Same with Day. In general, if you can fade a hot player that is within reach after Rd 1, it's +EV. I don't think golf gets enough action after Rd 1 or so and they try to drag people in to play a big name to win.

 

[iGnP]

D. Johnson at +1 for the day after 7 holes and J. Day at -6 feels good. Kokrak is choking though. We still have 12 golfers ahead of D. Johnson though. In my opinion, the only way the play was off is if D. Johnson is within 1 to 2 strokes at the end of the day and only 5 or so golfers within reach.

This is pretty common with golf. When Spieth was really hot, his odds got ridiculous. Same with Day. In general, if you can fade a hot player that is within reach after Rd 1, it's +EV. I don't think golf gets enough action after Rd 1 or so and they try to drag people in to play a big name to win.

So these lines have value purely due to name recognition and that golfer being hot?

 

[Subli]

Djokovic completely raped Thiem 6-1/6-0

That was like watching Edgar/Rodriguez

 

[Oblivian]

So these lines have value purely due to name recognition and that golfer being hot?

Well sort of the opposite. You are playing "Field over __________". So you are betting against the hot golfer, or big name, early after Rd 1. For example, if a regular pro is ahead by 2 or 3 strokes after Rd 1, it wouldn't be uncommon for "Field over" to be -800 or so. They are only 25% done with the tournament, and there are several golfers within striking distance to get ahead. Those odds are typically fairly correct, although sometimes I think those even have value. When you see a Field over top name at -400 or less after Rd 1, it's ridiculous. The tournament is completely up for grabs still, and there are most likely 10+ that could easily win it.

It's hard to explain unless you are a golf fan. I've got a pretty large sample size with it as I've been playing the Field over _________ lines for several years. I'm guessing 300+ bets. I think it's fairly easy to hit most bets you make after Rd 1 or Rd 2, but typically the lines will be -500 or above. The best way to tell for sure that your line was solid is when you see where they sit on the leaderboard post tournament. If D Johnson is something like 3-4 strokes back with a ton of golfers ahead of him, I'd argue under -300 was the best line in golf of the year. Where everything sits now, he can definitely still win, but the stars would really have to align for him.

Edit: D. Johnson is +2 for the day now and there are 6 golfers at least 4 strokes ahead. I'd be very surprised if he wins at this point.

 

[Xenophon Hendrix]

Thank you. You just taught me something valuable.

 

[timmyclax22]

Djokovic completely raped Thiem 6-1/6-0

That was like watching Edgar/Rodriguez

So you're saying it wasn't a good play?!

 

[iGnP]

Well sort of the opposite. You are playing "Field over __________". So you are betting against the hot golfer, or big name, early after Rd 1. For example, if a regular pro is ahead by 2 or 3 strokes after Rd 1, it wouldn't be uncommon for "Field over" to be -800 or so. They are only 25% done with the tournament, and there are several golfers within striking distance to get ahead. Those odds are typically fairly correct, although sometimes I think those even have value. When you see a Field over top name at -400 or less after Rd 1, it's ridiculous. The tournament is completely up for grabs still, and there are most likely 10+ that could easily win it.

It's hard to explain unless you are a golf fan. I've got a pretty large sample size with it as I've been playing the Field over _________ lines for several years. I'm guessing 300+ bets. I think it's fairly easy to hit most bets you make after Rd 1 or Rd 2, but typically the lines will be -500 or above. The best way to tell for sure that your line was solid is when you see where they sit on the leaderboard post tournament. If D Johnson is something like 3-4 strokes back with a ton of golfers ahead of him, I'd argue under -300 was the best line in golf of the year. Where everything sits now, he can definitely still win, but the stars would really have to align for him.

Edit: D. Johnson is +2 for the day now and there are 6 golfers at least 4 strokes ahead. I'd be very surprised if he wins at this point.

Just to clarify, when you made the bet, where was D. Johnson on the leader board? Was he winning at that point?

 

[Subli]

So you're saying it wasn't a good play?!

huh? what play?

Feel bad for Thiem, he had an incredible effort yesterday against Nadal, but got destroyed today.
Kinda want to play Djok +400 for the French. He was screaming like a fuckin gladiator. That showed me he absolutely wants this.

 

[Deleted member 448575]

Djokovic completely raped Thiem 6-1/6-0

That was like watching Edgar/Rodriguez

Odds for the final are currently

Djokovic 1.22
A. Zverev 5.00

Thought the odds would be closer after Djokovic was only a slight favorite over Thiem. I'm tempted to play Zverev here (on top of my outright bet on Zverev).

Edit: I just took Zverev +4.5 @2.20.

 

[Shancock9]

Are you the same dude who picked - 8.5 in super league? Cheers for that if it is.

Aye 2/2 this week so far, Wakefield won big which is always nice.

Tempted by knights plus 10.5 and dogs/roosters under 40.5. Maybe 0.5 u on each

 

[timmyclax22]

huh? what play?

Feel bad for Thiem, he had an incredible effort yesterday against Nadal, but got destroyed today.
Kinda want to play Djok +400 for the French. He was screaming like a fuckin gladiator. That showed me he absolutely wants this.

Was being sarcastic. A few of us had played Thiem.

 

[iGnP]

Spurs/Warriors 1H u110 for 3.3u