Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

iGnP said:
@mkess101 trap line on the Brewers game, i think. Hard to say. What do you think
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Ha ha this would literally be the LAST game on tonight's slate I'd play. Nothing but question marks and conflicting data. Greinke shut down Brewers recently but AZ has NO offense right now. Goldy in worst slump of his career. Pollack on DL. D Backs 1-9 in their last 10. But Anderson coming off DL for food poisoning LOL and sucked in his 2 starts prior to going on the DL. And you can't even get a + in front of either team!

Hardest of hard passes for me on this one man. Zero chance I put even one dollar on this game.
 
timmyclax22 said:
Good bet, Serena hasn’t played much and may not be ready for a long few weeks.
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that's ultimately why i think there's value on other women in the field. I really dont know much about tennis, or women's tennis for that matter, but she's won the tourney before, she's would have made the quarterfinals (at least) if she didnt lose as a big favorite last year in the round prior. IDK what her current form is or what her bracket looks like in terms of difficulty (which is why im assuming the bet is going to lose) but ive made much worse bets in the past. If she makes it to the QF and im holding +800, ill be happy w it
 
mkess101 said:
Ha ha this would literally be the LAST game on tonight's slate I'd play. Nothing but question marks and conflicting data. Greinke shut down Brewers recently but AZ has NO offense right now. Goldy in worst slump of his career. Pollack on DL. D Backs 1-9 in their last 10. But Anderson coming off DL for food poisoning LOL and sucked in his 2 starts prior to going on the DL. And you can't even get a + in front of either team!

Hardest of hard passes for me on this one man. Zero chance I put even one dollar on this game.
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yeah, what do you think about F5 over? also remember that greinke had the humidor in his last start against Brewers. his road splits have been VASTLY different than his home starts
 
iGnP said:
yeah, what do you think about F5 over? also remember that greinke had the humidor in his last start against Brewers. his road splits have been VASTLY different than his home starts
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Very true. But...Brewer offense is also struggling right now. Man IDK. I'm gonna look elsewhere. Maybe LB if a juicy line shows up.
 
Gun to my head, I think Cleveland wins tonight. BUT...I expect this game to be a LOT closer than their blowout win the other night. They shot incredibly well from 3 and I don't see that happening again. I think this goes down to the wire. Taking Celtics +7 for 1.5u.
 
Celtics making it very easy for Cavs so far. Missing dunks, fouling 3 point shooters, bad decisions. Different team on the road than at home for sure, but man I didn't see them laying another egg tonight. Still time for them to right the ship but so far they look horrible.
 
I fucking hate NBA refs sometimes. Try to get cute with how they call the game. Morris didn't purposefully kick his leg out, it was part of his natural shooting motion. Love clipped his foot on the closeout. It's pretty fucking obvious Morris was focused on the shot and not drawing contact since HE HIT THE FUCKING 3 POINTER. If you want to call nothing there, fine, whatever. You CANNOT call an offensive foul on that play unless it's just blatantly obvious the shooter is trying to initiate contact by kicking his leg out. And this wasn't even close to that. That ref shouldn't be allowed to to work playoff games anymore. Hell, just fire him and make him get a real job. You make calls like that, you can sit at a computer like I do all day you dumb prick LOL.
 
mkess101 said:
I fucking hate NBA refs sometimes. Try to get cute with how they call the game. Morris didn't purposefully kick his leg out, it was part of his natural shooting motion. Love clipped his foot on the closeout. It's pretty fucking obvious Morris was focused on the shot and not drawing contact since HE HIT THE FUCKING 3 POINTER. If you want to call nothing there, fine, whatever. You CANNOT call an offensive foul on that play unless it's just blatantly obvious the shooter is trying to initiate contact by kicking his leg out. And this wasn't even close to that. That ref shouldn't be allowed to to work playoff games anymore. Hell, just fire him and make him get a real job. You make calls like that, you can sit at a computer like I do all day you dumb prick LOL.
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Have faith were gonna cash the Celtics ticket. Also, Brewers were def a trap game
 
iGnP said:
Have faith were gonna cash the Celtics ticket. Also, Brewers were def a trap game
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Refs missed another but this time in Celts favor, calling a phantom foul on JR Smith on a Rozier 3 pointer. Of course Terry then goes and misses 2 of the 3 free throws LOL.

I'm pretty heavily invested in Celts now. 1.5u pre game +7 and another 2u live with Celts +14.5.

One thing I don't understand is why they allow Lebron to go right so often. It's not that he can't kill you going left too, but when you let him go right you literally have ZERO chance, he's just way too strong and too good a finisher with his right hand. I'm not saying you severely overplay him or anything, but you can at least shade him that way and encourage him to go left.

And yeah, I just had zero clue on the Brewers tonight. I made a small play on Rockies +175 just because Marquez has actually been solid away from Coors this year and odds seemed a bit too steep even though Buehler is the real deal for LA.
 
mkess101 said:
Refs missed another but this time in Celts favor, calling a phantom foul on JR Smith on a Rozier 3 pointer. Of course Terry then goes and misses 2 of the 3 free throws LOL.

I'm pretty heavily invested in Celts now. 1.5u pre game +7 and another 2u live with Celts +14.5.

One thing I don't understand is why they allow Lebron to go right so often. It's not that he can't kill you going left too, but when you let him go right you literally have ZERO chance, he's just way too strong and too good a finisher with his right hand. I'm not saying you severely overplay him or anything, but you can at least shade him that way and encourage him to go left.

And yeah, I just had zero clue on the Brewers tonight. I made a small play on Rockies +175 just because Marquez has actually been solid away from Coors this year and odds seemed a bit too steep even though Buehler is the real deal for LA.
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I don’t understand why the Celtics are so content allowing for the switches that put Lebron on Rozier or Tatum
 
iGnP said:
I don’t understand why the Celtics are so content allowing for the switches that put Lebron on Rozier or Tatum
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Yeah and Stephens even alluded to it at halftime. Lebron is just Lebron though sometimes too I guess. When Korver and Smith make 3's, good luck. They could try to have Morris or whoever else fight through all the screens, but he's already in foul trouble. When they double Lebron they are getting killed giving up open 3's. I agree though, you can't do it when it's Rozier. At least Tatum has SOME size where he's able to put up some resistance. Rozier is literally a speed bump to Lebron. He barely notices he's there LOL.
 
Love CLEARLY knocks the ball out of bounds. Refs go to default "Uhh, give Cleveland the ball" mode. Lebron hits a 3.

I should know better than to ever bet against the Cavs in games they HAVE to win. The refs honestly just give them almost every call. I don't even think they can help it. It's like there's some subconscious driving force that makes them believe Lebron is just "supposed" to move on.

I deserve to lose for missing this extremely key factor.

Edit: My +14.5 live bet cashes easily so I do make .5u on this game. I don't feel good about it though. Really thought Celtics had a good chance to make this tight down the stretch and got hosed on some key calls. Oh well...
 
I think Boston wins game 5 and loses game 6 and as good as they have been at home with all of those young players i wonder how they will Play in a game 7 vs lebron. I would have to say Cleveland wins it in 7 which was my original prediction on the series

In the other series I think golden state wins tonight and probably covers lose a close game 5 and win it in 6 at home. They are just too much to handle when curry and Durant play well not to mention if klay is hitting shots.

Whoever comes out of the east is losing to golden state and probably in 5 games.
 
Rockies +175 finished last night very well for me. Have some leans on MLB tonight but need to do a bit more digging before I bet or post them.
 
One big MLB play for sure. Still need to look into others but no way in HELL should the Twins be favored (let alone -152) with Lynn on the mound vs Boyd for Detroit.

I'm playing Det ML +142 and first five innings +135. 2u each.
 
mkess101 said:
One big MLB play for sure. Still need to look into others but no way in HELL should the Twins be favored (let alone -152) with Lynn on the mound vs Boyd for Detroit.

I'm playing Det ML +142 and first five innings +135. 2u each.
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Are you fading James Shield and the White Sox?

Shields has been hit and miss this year but his stuff has deteriorated over the past few years. Machado starting to heat up but Orioles are really underachieving this year.

I like the Twins/Tigers play, line is a headscratcher. Should be a pickem game.
 
MT6ix said:
Are you fading James Shield and the White Sox?

Shields has been hit and miss this year but his stuff has deteriorated over the past few years. Machado starting to heat up but Orioles are really underachieving this year.

I like the Twins/Tigers play, line is a headscratcher. Should be a pickem game.
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I'm playing o8.5 for CWS/BAL. Small though, just 1u. Gausman has been ok but just got shelled his last time out. You are spot on about Shields. One of them (maybe both) likely give up a decent amount of runs tonight imo.
 
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