Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?
- Thread starter Sharkey
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I was down some as well, T, but it's tough to make much in a day when most of the horses are running to their odds. Short priced favourites won most of the races yesterday, 2nd choices were finishing 2nd, and so on. I think there were only two horses at better than 5/1 that finished in the exacta during the stakes races yesterday, so unless you're strictly a chalk player it's tough on days like that.
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Yup, days like yesterday aren't much fun but they're inevitable. No big deal though, can't win em all.
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We'll get our chances, bud. Now that the Triple Crown season is over this is the time those late developing 3 year-olds come onto the scene and a lot of those early developing ones that we saw peak during the Derby prep season and/or the Derby itself fall by the wayside (like was the case last year with Arrogate, Connect, American Freedom, etc). Races like the Matt Winn, Ohio Derby, Indiana Derby, etc., should be coming up shortly, and should feature some horses who are bet on reputation alone just because they were well known during the lead up to the Triple Crown. I'll be pretty anxious to bet against a lot of those 3 year-olds we've seen already just because the crop has been looking like crap so far this year. My thinking is, in addition to some of them having already peaked for the year, there's got to be better runners in the works for this crop of horses. There just has to be. We'll also have the Haskell and Jim Dandy next month with everything coming together at the end of August in the Travers.
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e.g. The Matt Winn is next weekend and McCraken is set to run in it. He's going to be overbet based on what he did as a 2 year-old and his first start at 3. He may still win that race depending on who else shows up, but he's going to be overbet regardless largely on his reputation alone that was earned early in his career. Considering his dull 3rd in the Blue Grass and his dull 8th in the Derby after going undefeated in his first 4 starts of his career, he may just end up being one of those early developers that are barely a factor again. Mohaymen is a prime example from last year. Matured early, went undefeated for his first 5 starts, and then hasn't hit the board in any of his 6 races since then. He finished 11th yesterday in the Met Mile and was also 11th in his previous start at the G1 level. Whether it be McCraken or someone else, there are going to be horses who follow a similar career trajectory this year. It happens every year.
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Suddenbreakingnews was another early developer from last year. Finished either 1st or 2nd in 7 of his first 8 starts including being a grades stakes winner and G1 placed. Then ran a pretty good 5th in the Derby when he was only a head out of finishing 3rd. Has barely ran a step since then being off the board in all 5 of his starts since the Derby, including three straight races where he can't even hit the board in allowance level company.
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Really looking forward to it, Shark. I'm hoping to make it to Saratoga at least once or twice this summer too.
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Gonna try a couple of races for tonight's card at Churchill Downs;
G3 Matt Winn (race 5) - Was hoping for a better field than what they got to face McCraken, so this play may be a little forced on my part. But I'm going to play the #5 horse, Aquamarine (5/1 morning line), to win. Just a small stab as he looks like he may be the controlling speed in a race that has very little of it on paper besides him. He a sprinter stretching out from a decent 2nd place effort last time out on the Preakness undercard, although as a sprinter beforehand the distance may end up being a question. He just may get left alone on the front, though, with no other horse offering much pressure, so maybe he can get an energy conserving trip that sees him to the end. Also has had a couple of nice workouts over the track in the past couple of weeks too. McCraken is far and away the class of the field in this race, but he's still going to be overbet (probaly down to 1/2 if not moreso), especially considering the apparent pace dynamics of the race. I think I get even better than 5/1 on Aquamarine, so I'll give him a shot.
G1 Stephen Foster (race 8) - I really like Honorable Duty (6/1 morning line) in this race, so I'm going to play him to both win and place. Gun Runner is the favourite and rightfully so, as he's one of the top 2 or 3 dirt horses out there right now. But he may be worth taking a small shot against just because of how the race shape looks to play out. There's some other early speed types in this race with horses like Bird Song and Stanford, so there's a good chance that Gun Runner doesn't get the early lead in this race. He might be forced to sit behind horses here and that hasn't been a winning style for him since winning the Louisiana Derby last year. In his 9 races since then he's had the early lead in 4 of them and was forced to come from behind horses in 5 of them. He's 3 for 4 when getting the early lead since (only loss to Arrogate), and 0 for 5 when he doesn't. Of course, some of those horses he was losing might be a touch better than what he's facing tonight, so I'm not going to discount him completely and will play a saver exacta with him. But it also could be a sign of some small ineffectiveness when presented with a certain race setup and trip. To me Honorable Duty looks like the horse in the best position to take advantage of things if that's the case. He's coming off a nice effort last month in the Alysheba when he finished 2nd despite running on the outside portion of the track when there was a very obvious bias to horses running on the inside portion (Derby day). His pace figures from that race also fit the E2 angle that I like so much when it comes to off the pace types as well having earned an E2 of 115 that race while never having earned an E2 of more than 98 in any of his 9 races before that. He also entered that race on a 3 race winning streak too (including G2 and G3 wins), so this is obviously a horse who is in good form right now. With some early speed types signed on this guy should get a nice midpack trip and should get first jump on the closers with the late kick to sustain him to the wire.
G2 Fleur de Lis (race 7) - I'm taking a shot against the favourite again here with Forever Unbridled coming back after a long 7 month break, and is sure to get overbet. I ended up landing on Romantic Vision (8/1 morning line) in this race as, amongst other reasons, she was also hurt by running on the outside portion of the track on Derby day, is making her 3rd start off the layoff, and is also in good current form right now.
So yeah, that's what I'll play today, and what everybody else should avoid playing if looking to;
- In the Matt Winn I'll make a small play on Aquamarine to win for 1u
- In the Fleur de Lis I'll play Romantic Vision to win for 1u and place for 2u
- In the Stephen Foster I'll play Honorable Duty to win for 2u, place for 3u, and then have a exacta saver with Gun Runner over Honorable Duty for 1u
G3 Matt Winn (race 5) - Was hoping for a better field than what they got to face McCraken, so this play may be a little forced on my part. But I'm going to play the #5 horse, Aquamarine (5/1 morning line), to win. Just a small stab as he looks like he may be the controlling speed in a race that has very little of it on paper besides him. He a sprinter stretching out from a decent 2nd place effort last time out on the Preakness undercard, although as a sprinter beforehand the distance may end up being a question. He just may get left alone on the front, though, with no other horse offering much pressure, so maybe he can get an energy conserving trip that sees him to the end. Also has had a couple of nice workouts over the track in the past couple of weeks too. McCraken is far and away the class of the field in this race, but he's still going to be overbet (probaly down to 1/2 if not moreso), especially considering the apparent pace dynamics of the race. I think I get even better than 5/1 on Aquamarine, so I'll give him a shot.
G1 Stephen Foster (race 8) - I really like Honorable Duty (6/1 morning line) in this race, so I'm going to play him to both win and place. Gun Runner is the favourite and rightfully so, as he's one of the top 2 or 3 dirt horses out there right now. But he may be worth taking a small shot against just because of how the race shape looks to play out. There's some other early speed types in this race with horses like Bird Song and Stanford, so there's a good chance that Gun Runner doesn't get the early lead in this race. He might be forced to sit behind horses here and that hasn't been a winning style for him since winning the Louisiana Derby last year. In his 9 races since then he's had the early lead in 4 of them and was forced to come from behind horses in 5 of them. He's 3 for 4 when getting the early lead since (only loss to Arrogate), and 0 for 5 when he doesn't. Of course, some of those horses he was losing might be a touch better than what he's facing tonight, so I'm not going to discount him completely and will play a saver exacta with him. But it also could be a sign of some small ineffectiveness when presented with a certain race setup and trip. To me Honorable Duty looks like the horse in the best position to take advantage of things if that's the case. He's coming off a nice effort last month in the Alysheba when he finished 2nd despite running on the outside portion of the track when there was a very obvious bias to horses running on the inside portion (Derby day). His pace figures from that race also fit the E2 angle that I like so much when it comes to off the pace types as well having earned an E2 of 115 that race while never having earned an E2 of more than 98 in any of his 9 races before that. He also entered that race on a 3 race winning streak too (including G2 and G3 wins), so this is obviously a horse who is in good form right now. With some early speed types signed on this guy should get a nice midpack trip and should get first jump on the closers with the late kick to sustain him to the wire.
G2 Fleur de Lis (race 7) - I'm taking a shot against the favourite again here with Forever Unbridled coming back after a long 7 month break, and is sure to get overbet. I ended up landing on Romantic Vision (8/1 morning line) in this race as, amongst other reasons, she was also hurt by running on the outside portion of the track on Derby day, is making her 3rd start off the layoff, and is also in good current form right now.
So yeah, that's what I'll play today, and what everybody else should avoid playing if looking to;
- In the Matt Winn I'll make a small play on Aquamarine to win for 1u
- In the Fleur de Lis I'll play Romantic Vision to win for 1u and place for 2u
- In the Stephen Foster I'll play Honorable Duty to win for 2u, place for 3u, and then have a exacta saver with Gun Runner over Honorable Duty for 1u
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Tailing everything, just cutting down the unit size a bit and boxing the exacta. Maybe get some money back from this morning's UFC. Thanks for posting Sharkey and best of luck!
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It would be nice if they made it easier for us to watch these races. Seems like it would benefit everyone.
Yea, I did see the result. Ah well, let's get one of these next two! Or both, haha.
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I'm pretty sure it would be on TVG if you lived in the US, but that is a subscriptions channel so it's not widely available to everyone. Up here in Canada we're stuck hoping XBTV shows it on their site, looking for a stream, or heading down to the OTB to watch the track simulcast. I almost did that too, but said screw it. With the way I've been going lately it might be better not to watch them. Ugh.
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I do get TVG on DirecTV, but my guide said Los Alamitos so I assumed they wouldn't be showing Churchill. I have it on now, hoping they'll switch over to the Stephen Foster when it starts.
I hear ya Shark, I've been having a rough go lately all around. But that's gambling for ya. With your style of play it'll only take a hit or two to get right back in the back.
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Just saw the result. Yea, not the best payout but a win is a win. I'll take it for sure.
By the way, TVG didn't show the race. They announced Gun Runner as the winner, but didn't say who finished second. USELESS!
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I had to look it up, but apparently TVG have been bickering with Churchill Downs for the last couple of years, T, and thus don't have the contract to show the races from there. My guess is that twinspires.com have the exclusive rights since they're always plastered all over the replay videos, but who knows. It does suck you couldn't watch it live though.
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Man that Gun Runner is a nice horse, Breeders cup should be fun this year.
Had a great time at the Belmont, didn't hit anything big but a fun day of racing regardless. Songbird is such a great horse.
Had a great time at the Belmont, didn't hit anything big but a fun day of racing regardless. Songbird is such a great horse.
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I mentioned him a couple of times on here already, but Timeline won again this afternoon after taking the G3 Pegasus very easily by open lengths while earning a BSF of 99 in the process. That gives him 4 wins in 4 career starts with BSF of 101, 97, and now a 99 over his last three races. Very impressive for a horse to earn those types of BSF so consistently this early in their career. Could end up being the best of this 3 year-old crop once all is said and done as there is still plenty of room for improvement considering his career stage right now. Will get his first real chance to prove that next month in the Haskell when he faces some of these other 3 year-olds we've come to know and hate so far during the Triple Crown season. Definitely looking forward to seeing how he does. i.e. He's going to trounce these other scrubs me thinks.
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Nice to see Hence get back into the win column after taking the G3 Iowa Derby a few minutes ago. Won it quite easily too with a last to first rally beating horses like Petrov, Silver Dust, Impressive Edge and some other 2nd raters we've come to know so far this year. Paid almost 4/1 to win.
