Kentucky Derby...and Beyond? | Page 73

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 28, 2016.

  1. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Nice card going on at Belmont right now with the Suburban, Belmont Sprint, Dwyer, and a couple of really nice turf races including an intriguing race between Yoshida and Oscar Performance. I didn't do any capping of it since I've been really busy the last week or so. But this is quite the nice card put together. Practical Joke is running in the Dwyer shortly here against horses like Battalion Runner and the up and comer Guiseppe the Great.
     
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  2. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Practical Joke won that race really easily despite looking like he might be in trouble earlier in the race. Nice performance by him.

    Since the race is still over an hour away and I have time to get down to the OTB, I'm going to run down there and make a $50 play on Matt King Coal to win the Suburban against the likes of Shaman Ghost, Keen Ice, and the rest. I've always been high on that horse going back to last year before he got injured in the Wood, and he has come back quite strong since returning with him winning 3 of 5 ( a short neck away from 4 in a row). There's also no speed in this race besides him. No speed. None. The other entries are all off the pace types, so this is about the most obvious example of the "lone speed angle" you can possibly find. The distance may be a question with him, but with him very likely to be the controlling speed there's a good chance he gets a nice energy conserving trip on the front end. So yeah. I'll run down and play Matt King Coal to win.

    Very interesting rematch coming up here between Mind Your Biscuits and Unified in the Belmont Sprint.
     
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  3. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Mind Your Biscuits is such a good horse. Crushed what was a pretty good field. I don;t know about anybody else, but I feel pretty good about seeing something in him when we played him at 20/1 or so last fall.

    In addition to Matt King Coal in the Suburban, I'm going to try Yoshida in the Belmont Derby as well and hope some of the public ignores or is unaware of how impressive his turn of foot is when he showed it on the Preakness undercard. I'll play both of those for 2.5u each I guess since they should be similar odds.
     
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  4. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    I should have stayed home after seeing those garbage performances.
     
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  5. kenfloshogun Yellow Belt

    kenfloshogun
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    Arrogate racing this weekend right?
     
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  6. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Yeah, he's racing tomorrow, K. Not against anything that should remotely give him any type of challenge. But it will be good to see him back on the track again.

    Next weekend will be fun with both the Haskell and Jim Dandy being ran as everyone starts prepping for the Travers now.
     
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  7. kenfloshogun Yellow Belt

    kenfloshogun
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    yep, just checked the odds. -1200. Will be nice to just watch a race and enjoy it without having action on it :p

    There was talk about Arrogate coming to Saratoga, think it's a possibility or does Baffert keep him on the west coast?
     
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  8. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Nah, I don't see any chance of him going to Saratoga. It'd be cool if he did. But I just don't see it. He's racing over the Del Mar track tomorrow, which clearly looks like a prep for next month's G1 Pacific Classic which is also at Del Mar. I'm pretty sure this year's Breeder's Cup is also at Del Mar if I'm not mistaken. No reason to ship Arrogate across country when he has races like that right there in his own backyard.
     
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  9. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    I also read a couple of days ago that Classic Empire is going to be missing the Haskell and train up to the Travers. I think it had something to do with him training poorly or something. At least that was what was said. That's a big ask to have a horse race in the Travers (10F and one of the more demanding surfaces usually) after a 3+ month break from any sort of racing.
     
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  10. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Interesting how American Anthem had a 7F workout yesterday and also had another 7F workout on July 7th. Those aren't the workout distances of a horse who going to continue to be campaigned as a sprinter. I haven't seen him mentioned as a potential Haskell horse yet, but what is Baffert up to by putting that stamina into him? Interesting. Baffert has own this race over the years having won 5 of the last runnings of it, and 8 of the past 15. You gotta figure he wants to continue that streak, yes? He can't do it with his other good 3 year-old in West Coast, who just ran and won last week, and is potentially pointed towards the Travers in his next start. If he wants to try to win the Haskell again it's got to be with American Anthem right? Interesting. He tried the same path with Bayern a few years as well (route to sprint in the Woody Stephens, then back to routes), and was very successful as Bayern won the Haskell by daylight that year. Just saying.

    I can hear it now;

    "Give it up Sharkey. That horse is a can."

    Maybe so. Or maybe it just him a little bit of time mentally mature out there on the track. He's won his last two races, including the G2 Woody Stephens on the Belmont undercard (and a G3 the other time), and has looked like a completely different horse than the unsettled nutjob that ran in the Rebel or SA Derby during the prep season. The immature April version of himself may have became unhinged with the way the Woody Stephens was ran. The June version of himself romped in that race by open lengths. The physical ability has always been there with him I think. So if they figured out the mental side of things with this one then hey...Maybe me being so high on him this spring wasn't such a bad call afterall.

    I'm hoping to see him in the Haskell next week. Hence? Girvin? McCraken? Irish War Cry? Battle of Midway? Practical Joke? What's there to be scared of besides maybe Timeline? Give it a go I say.

     
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  11. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    All this talk on twitter regarding Arrogate's return to the races means I'm not going to get a price on him. Geez thanks. :(
     
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  12. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Twitter is telling me that Arrogate just finished 4th. Like what the fuck.
     
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  13. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Apparently 97.9% of the show pool was bet on Arrogate, and with him finishing out those payouts on the others should be friggin massive.
     
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  14. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Donworth finishes 2nd and I'm hearing he paid 59/1 to place. Crazy.
     
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  15. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    I think I'm going to have to see this to believe it.

     
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  16. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Accelerate paid almost twice as much to place ($32.60) and even more to show ($22.00) than he did to win ($17.60). Donworth paid nearly twice as much to place as he would have had he won, with his show payout being equal to his win payout.
     
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  17. BluntTrauma21 SpottieOttieDopaliscious

    BluntTrauma21
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    Damn Arrogate got his ass whooped. Don't know who he was up against but that was unexpected against pretty much any horse atm.

    You bet this one Shark? sorry haven't been following the ponies as much lately.
     
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  18. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    He wasn't racing against much at all, Blunt. A couple of decent sorts who can run okay in G2 or G3 races, but he should've been able to handle this field with no trouble at all even if he was off a bit. But he was off by a whole bunch. He wasn't injured or anything, so it looks like he just said "fuck it, I don't feel like running today." I'm shocked. I really am. One of the biggest upsets in a race I can ever remember.

    And nah, I didn't bet it. I think Arrogate went off at odds of 1/12, and I figured he was a cinch to win nevermind finish top 3. Didn't see the point of betting anything in the race.
     
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  19. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Some of the racing results this year have defied logic. They just don't make sense, so I may throw logic out the window next week when it comes to betting the Haskell and Jim Dandy me thinks. Pick a name out of hat. Bet on the #4 horse in each race regardless who it is. Or handicap the race and then bet the complete opposite of what I think will happen. Something like that. I don't know. I've been losing confidence over the last few months and this result today can only compound that. How can anybody bet with any confidence when we get shit like this happening? The best horse who is trained by the best trainer (in the US at least) goes out and gets beat 15+ lengths by some 3rd raters.
     
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  20. BluntTrauma21 SpottieOttieDopaliscious

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    Birdstone taking out Smarty Jones back in the day? Only reason I bring it up is b/c that was the first horse racing bet I've ever won. Me my bro and my Grandpa and Grandma would watch the big 3 races together but Grandpa (rip) talked me out of the to 'win" play and only bet him to show b/c he didn't think he had a chance and I was just a kid who didn't know shit about the horses other than I had watched the Derby and Preakness with them earlier that year. Gramps went to the otb and put a few bucks on all our picks, didn't get my 50-1 or whatever it was, but still won a good amount, especially for a kid, haha.

    Anyway unnecessary story but nostalgia taking the best of me after several drinks, lol.
     
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