Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
Most people still make the mistake of handicapping the Belmont like it's any other race, T, and use conventional tools like the BSF or what have you. Things that don't matter much if even at all. Here's the truth. The Belmont is going to be a slowly ran race regardless and if the guys gave out accurate or true BSF for the recent runnings of the race then we'd see most winners run it with something in the 80's or even the 70's on occasion. If I'm remembering right, Creator's true BSF in winning the Belmont last year was something like a 76 or thereabouts. But they bump it way up year after year to help everyone save face just because it's a classic race at the G1 level. It doesn't matter how fast a horse ran in a previous race at a much shorter distance because nobody is going to run fast in the Belmont. All that matters is how far a horse can run on that particular day at the track, and with that you take into account the horse's pedigree, running style, visual impression, condition (coming in fresh or could the horse be fatigued from recent racing?), and things like that. We've seen a lot of comparitively prettty slow animals run really well in the Belmont over the last decade or so (Commissioner, Lani, Ruler On Ice, Atigun, Da'Tara, Incognito, Drosselmeyer, etc) and a few of those even won the race. They didn't do it by suddenly getting faster. They were able to finish well because they were able to stay on better than most if not all of the horses they were competing against. Ruler On Ice and Da'Tara combined to go 1 for 22 in their traditional distance races after they posted Belmont wins with just 1 little allowance win to their credit. They weren't much good going into the Belmont either. But for one race in their career they were able to run further than everyone else in their respective fields and were able to nab a classic G1 win to their credit.
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Great stuff as always Shark. Thanks!
 
Here's a little more geekish pedigree stuff with Twisted Tom;

His mare, Tiffany Twisted, raced 14 times during her career producing a 2-3-2 record. Five of her races came at distances of 9.5F or greater in which she finished in the top 3 in four of them, including her two wins coming at 11F and 10F. She produced better results for herself as the distances got longer.

Twisted Tom's 2nd dam, Miss Turlington, also raced 14 times during her career producing a 1-1-1 record in those starts. Her one win came at 10F with her other two top 3 finishes also coming at 10F and 11F. Whatever success she had came as the distances got longer. She was also bred to a Belmont (and Derby) winner at 12F in Thunder Gulch to produce Tiffany Twisted.

Twisted Tom's 3rd dam, Class Play, was an excellent filly who won multiple G1 races at 10F or longer, including winning a G1 at the 12F distance that is the Belmont. Like Twisted Tom's 2nd dam, she was bred to a Belmont (and Triple Crown) winner at 12F in Seattle Slew to produce Miss Turlington.

I'm not sure of the racing record of his 4th dam, but she was an offspring of a sire who produced multiple Belmont winners, including being the sire of a Triple Crown winner in Affirmed.

Like I mentioned above, that tail end of Twisted Tom's female side of the family is absolutely loaded with stamina influences from horses who have proven to have more success as the race distances get longer. So why should he be any different, huh?
 
Locked in a play on Twisted Tom to win for 0.5u at +2000. I'll probably end up adding more on him before the race.

Lines on 5d for the rest of the field if anyone is interested:

Tapwrit +800
Gormley +1150
J Boys Echo +1650
Hollywood Handsome +3000
Lookin at Lee +500
Irish War Cry +360
Senior Investment +650
Meantime +1450
Multiplier +1800
Epicharis +425
Patch +2500
 
t6p said:
Locked in a play on Twisted Tom to win for 0.5u at +2000. I'll probably end up adding more on him before the race.

Lines on 5d for the rest of the field if anyone is interested:

Tapwrit +800
Gormley +1150
J Boys Echo +1650
Hollywood Handsome +3000
Lookin at Lee +500
Irish War Cry +360
Senior Investment +650
Meantime +1450
Multiplier +1800
Epicharis +425
Patch +2500
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Epicharis at just over 4/1 is insanity. Especially considering the news that came out yesterday in the vet reports that he was treated to a shot of bute due to an issue in his right front hoof. He only did a short bit of walking around the shed this morning as well. If he was 100% healthy he wouldn't be without a shot considering he has good stamina influences in his pedigree and has a good running style for the race. But I don't see him being close to a proper 4/1 shot even if healthy. He has received a fair amount of hype as the unknown outsider, though, and will undoubtably get the play from the Japanese market. But that price is still pretty crazy and even moreso with the news that he's being treated for something. You want 4/1 in an exhausting 12F race on a horse being treated for a bad foot just three days before the race?

On the other side of the fence, Patch offers up plenty of value at 25/1 me thinks. He was sired by a Belmont winner and both his dam sire and great dam sire were Belmont winners as well. He also has that grinding even energy distribution style that plays so well in this race. He visually doesn't look like as much of a stayer as say Twisted Tom, but the price is right with him there. Plus Patch is trained by Pletcher who has had great success in this race and will be ridden by a jockey who's a regular rider of the Belmont track and has won the Belmont a couple of times before. At 25/1 there's plenty of reasons to use Patch in this race. In fact I'm interested in using him some when betting into the mutuals and because of his "feel good" story regarding his eye I don't expect anywhere near 25/1. But I'm still planning on using him in some exactas and tris.
 
I just read that The Bull passed away yesterday due to old age. Bringing their best versus his best, I don't think we've seen a 3 year-old as good as him since.

 
Finished handicapping the rest of the Belmont card for Saturday and these are the plays I'm very likely to make when the time comes along with some quick comments;

Easy Goer Stakes (race 2) - You're to Blame at 4/1 for 2u. Looks like a whole lot of speed is signed on, so I have no problems at all taking what looks to be the best closer in the race who happens to be trained by the red hot Chad Brown and will have Castellano aboard.

G2 Brooklyn Invitational (race 3) - Governor Malibu at 8/1 for 1u. Back at Belmont again where the only time he finished off the board in his 7 career starts over the track was when he had troubled 4th last year in the Belmont Stakes. Bet him last year to win at 12F against stronger, so don't see a reason not to again at good odds in a questionable field.

G1 Acorn Stakes (race 4) - Benner Island at 6/1 or 1u. Don't see much speed in this race, and what speed there is seems pretty cheap. It's a bit of a step up in class for this girl, but it looks like she could sit a perfect stalk and pounce trip outside the cheap speed drawn to her inside. The only question from there is if she's good enough. I'll gamble she is.

G2 Woody Stephens (race 7) - American Anthem at 5/2 for 1u. *sigh* Yeah, that's right. I'm going there again. "Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me". When I bet him he throws a dud. When I don't bet him he wins. So yeah. Please you elsewhere in this race if wanting to cash something. Me playing him back is the definition of insanity I do believe.

G1 Met Mile (race 9) - Sharp Azteca at 7/2 for 2u. To my eyes he looks like the best horse in the race. To me eyes he also looks like he'll have a tactical advantage over the field as I don't see much that will challenge him early. Was very unlucky not to win the Godolphin Mile over in Dubai on World Cup day after running such a tremendous race. Should be the favourite in this race and clearly so me thinks. 7/2 is a gift.


I also thought about playing against Songbird in the G1 Ogden Phipps since she's making her first start back after such a long layoff, but ultimately I don't have the black heart to do that. Like many will be doing, I want to see her come back to the track and romp by daylight. There's also some other graded stakes races I won't be playing just because they're on the green stuff, including the G1 Just A Game and G1 Manhattan. 13 races on the card with 10 of those being stakes races with 6 of those being of the G1 variety. Tremendous card yet again and is so year after year. The cheap bastards at Pimlico should take note. So should the fool that is Steve Coburn who, if he got his way, would be lucky to see one G1 race on the Belmont card if his insane idea came to be.
 
I'm having a lot of trouble finding a 3rd horse to go with Twisted Tom and Patch in the Belmont because I don't have much confidence in any of them. May land on Tapwrit as a horse just by default. He has a pretty even energy distribution style to his running as he tends to be a grinding galloping type most times. His trainer/jockey combo is good with Pletcher and J Ortiz. He's been freshened up and rested since running an okay 6th in the Derby. He looks to be training well from what I've seen of him on the track (he's been outworking Patch, which isn't saying much as Patch has never been much in the mornings...or afternoons for that matter, but hey, workouts aren't at 12F either). His sire, Tapit, has sired 2 of the last 3 Belmont winners in Tonalist and Creator, as well as a 2nd (Frosted) and 3rd (Lani) in the last few years too. But those successful Tapit Belmont runners also had plenty of stamina influences on the female side of their pedigree, though, which Tapwrit does not. His immediate female family is sprint heavy with his dam mostly being a sprinter, his dam sire a sprinter, and his 2nd dam a sprinter. You have to go back 3 generations in Tapwrit's female family to find a stamina influence in Hawkster (won and set record at 12F on the grass). Tapit as a sire has always been a middle distance type sire who needed to be bred to a stamina based mare to produce good route runners, so Tapwrit not having that is concerning. But I will say that Tapwrit has always looked to me like a longer distance runner with my eyes. Not visually a 12F type by any means. But he's always looked like he'd be able to handle classic distances better than most in this crop, so maybe he can be one of those types that can outrun his female side of his pedigree. And uh, whether it be Irish War Cry, Gormley, or whoever, it's not like any of the other horses in this field besides Twisted Tom are screaming out saying that they'll like 12F. Most of the field will probably be looking for a place to lay down after 10F have been run.
 
Epicharis missed another training day on the track.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...elmont-park?utm_source=BHTW&utm_medium=social

I really hope everyone does right by the horse. The Belmont is plenty hard enough on the horses with 4 good feet nevermind one with only 3. The concern I have is that they've made the long trip over from Japan with Epicharis, and that there's also a $1 million bonus specific to him if he should happen to win the race. I just hope the greed of some people doesn't come before the health of the horse. That's a recipe for disaster. Sometimes a fatal disaster if a horse is forced to step wrong with his other feet because he's favouring one that is hurting.
 
Sharkey said:
Finished handicapping the rest of the Belmont card for Saturday and these are the plays I'm very likely to make when the time comes along with some quick comments;

Easy Goer Stakes (race 2) - You're to Blame at 4/1 for 2u. Looks like a whole lot of speed is signed on, so I have no problems at all taking what looks to be the best closer in the race who happens to be trained by the red hot Chad Brown and will have Castellano aboard.

G2 Brooklyn Invitational (race 3) - Governor Malibu at 8/1 for 1u. Back at Belmont again where the only time he finished off the board in his 7 career starts over the track was when he had troubled 4th last year in the Belmont Stakes. Bet him last year to win at 12F against stronger, so don't see a reason not to again at good odds in a questionable field.

G1 Acorn Stakes (race 4) - Benner Island at 6/1 or 1u. Don't see much speed in this race, and what speed there is seems pretty cheap. It's a bit of a step up in class for this girl, but it looks like she could sit a perfect stalk and pounce trip outside the cheap speed drawn to her inside. The only question from there is if she's good enough. I'll gamble she is.

G2 Woody Stephens (race 7) - American Anthem at 5/2 for 1u. *sigh* Yeah, that's right. I'm going there again. "Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me". When I bet him he throws a dud. When I don't bet him he wins. So yeah. Please you elsewhere in this race if wanting to cash something. Me playing him back is the definition of insanity I do believe.

G1 Met Mile (race 9) - Sharp Azteca at 7/2 for 2u. To my eyes he looks like the best horse in the race. To me eyes he also looks like he'll have a tactical advantage over the field as I don't see much that will challenge him early. Was very unlucky not to win the Godolphin Mile over in Dubai on World Cup day after running such a tremendous race. Should be the favourite in this race and clearly so me thinks. 7/2 is a gift.


I also thought about playing against Songbird in the G1 Ogden Phipps since she's making her first start back after such a long layoff, but ultimately I don't have the black heart to do that. Like many will be doing, I want to see her come back to the track and romp by daylight. There's also some other graded stakes races I won't be playing just because they're on the green stuff, including the G1 Just A Game and G1 Manhattan. 13 races on the card with 10 of those being stakes races with 6 of those being of the G1 variety. Tremendous card yet again and is so year after year. The cheap bastards at Pimlico should take note. So should the fool that is Steve Coburn who, if he got his way, would be lucky to see one G1 race on the Belmont card if his insane idea came to be.
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In addition to these above plays I'm going to take a stab with Antonoe at 8/1 for 1u in the G1 Just A Game (race 8), and then take another stab with Time Test at 5/1 for 1u in the G1 Manhattan (race 10). In Chad and Javier I trust. Might as well make a day of it when it comes to wagering since I'll be watching all the races. Always better when you got a little something on the line, yes?

In the Belmont itself (race 11) I'll probably just end up betting Twisted Tom across the board to win for 2u, place for 3u, and show for 3u. Then box him in an exacta along with Patch and Tapwrit for 0.5u each. I'd feel pretty good about that being representative of my opinion.
 
Another element of greed that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere yet is that with Epicharis in the race Belmont Park get the Japanese betting market interested in the race as I believe they've open that up in the parimutual pools. Without him being scratched they'll lose all that and it'll be a blow to them that would cost them millions in takeout. Whether it be the connections or the race regulators, can we trust them to do the right thing with the horse when each of those parties have so much to lose financially? I have more trust in the NYRA tracks than most. But still. Horse racing didn't get it's shady reputation by being an honest game. Where there's big money gambling involved there's corruption soon to follow.

Now watch. Epicharis is going to make everybody look like a fool tomorrow and win the race by open lengths. With the way my year has gone with this year's crop I'd almost expect him to do that now.
 
I'm also reminded of Life At Ten when it comes to bad decisions to start a horse. The jockey knew she wasn't well when they entered her in the 2010 Ladies Classic. The television commentators knew she wasn't by the way she was acting before the race. Even the race stewards knew she wasn't well. Yet nobody did anything about it and she was allowed to run anyways. As mentioned the jock was one who knew something was wrong with her, and fortunately for her he did his best to take care of her during the race. In the end it was the gamblers who got fucked over by the lack of a decision made as they bet millions of dollars on her and made her the 2nd choice in the race. By looking the other way the track got to keep their 18% takeout of the millions bet on her instead of getting zero if they had scratched her like should have been done. It was some dark shady shit.

 
For anyone with a 5dimes account interested in playing Patch in the Belmont, he's now up to +2750. He's 12/1 on the morning line and as @Sharkey mentioned, his price is very unlikely to be this good tomorrow.
 
t6p said:
For anyone with a 5dimes account interested in playing Patch in the Belmont, he's now up to +2750. He's 12/1 on the morning line and as @Sharkey mentioned, his price is very unlikely to be this good tomorrow.
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Are they offering you up lines on a top 3 finish and that sort of thing yet, T?
 
Sharkey said:
Are they offering you up lines on a top 3 finish and that sort of thing yet, T?
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Surprisingly, no. If I remember correctly those lines were available days before the Derby and Preakness. I'm hoping they'll put them up later today or early tomorrow. I'll be sure to post them if so.
 
As the old saying goes, "slow and steady wins the race" and that's usually the case much more often than not when it comes to the Belmont. Doesn't matter if horses like Twisted Tom or Patch are slow on the figures when it comes to races at much shorter distances. That stuff is irrelevant. All that matters is that their slow isn't as slow as the other horses' slow when it comes to the slow last couple of furlongs of the Belmont.
 
t6p said:
Surprisingly, no. If I remember correctly those lines were available days before the Derby and Preakness. I'm hoping they'll put them up later today or early tomorrow. I'll be sure to post them if so.
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I'd feel better if you guys have that option become available, but hey, 27/1 on a horse who be less half that in the public pools is nothing to scoff at. Especially considering I think he probably has a better shot than most to see out the distance.
 
The field for the Belmont is going to run the first three separate one quarter miles in 24 and change, and then they'll likely run the last three one quarter sections in 25, 26, and 27 or something like that. There's not a single portion of the race that is going to be fast or faster than what Twisted Tom or Patch are capable of running. Sure, a 46 second half mile in a 9F race might see them having trouble keeping up. But a 48-49 second half mile? "Slow" horses like them can run that pace in their sleep. Again, it doesn't matter how fast a horse is on the BSF or any other figure just because not a single horse is going to be running anything close to "fast" at any portion of the race. They're all going to be running slow. And then even slower yet as as they round the far turn into the stretch. Who's going to be capable on limiting how much they slow over those last couple of furlongs will determine the winner.
 
Da' Tara in 2008 and Palace Malice in 2013 are the only two Belmont winners over the last decade to have run a sub 24 second quarter mile at any portion of the race, and both of those were just under 24 with their opening quarter miles. The other 8 winners ran every quarter mile portion of the race at 24+ seconds. To pull out some math, the Belmont has 6 quarter mile measurements through the race seeing as it's a mile and a half. 6 x 10 = 60. Out of the 60 quarter mile measurements by the Belmont winner over the last decade only two were sub 24 seconds (and just under at that). 58 of them were 24 seconds and higher. A horse's BSF says he's capable of running a sub 46 second half mile and a 1:09 three-quarter mile at shorter distances? Hey great. He's a fast horse for being able to do that. Give me a call on Sunday when he finally crosses the line after attempting to run that pace at 12F, though. Slow and steady, baby. Slow and steady.
 
Damn I didn t know there was a horse racing thread on sherdog, I'm looking at all the races at belmont for Saturday. I'll post my thoughts and plays when I'm done
 
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