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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 28, 2016.
They should give the full finishing order on the broadcast, Jae.
I can retire now
Holy shit, I actually made a tiny profit on that race thanks to Lee.
Practical Joke finished 5th if anybody had him to finish top 5. Hence finished 11th and J Boys Echo finished 15th for whoever had that matchup. I think it was Jae.
Well Looking At Lee and Practical Joke did pretty good atleast
Strange. I walked into the OTB around noon today, put $250 in total down on the Derby, and after that shit show I'm somehow walking out with $380 thanks to an inflated show price (6.6/1) on Lookin At Lee. I have no idea how I managed to multiple my investment by 1.5 on that race.
The Peter Pan is next week and that's a race I always look forward to every year as a prep race for the Belmont. It's a race I always look at pretty closely when making a Belmont pick, as I did last year with Governor Malibu, Commissioner a couple of years ago, Drosselmeyer before that, etc. This year's Peter Pan field should feature a horse named Timeline in it, who, after earning a 101 BSF for his last race, could be one of those late developing types that end up being the best of the crop by the time the summer rolls around. One to keep our eyes on anyways.
Edit: Here's Timeline's last race when he earned that 101 BSF;
Now that we know he's okay I'm not going to feel bad when I watch this replay and get a good laugh out of him.
The post positions and morning line odds for the Preakness;
1 - Multiplier 30/1
2 - Cloud Computing 12/1
3 - Hence 20/1
4 - Always Dreaming 4/5
5 - Classic Empire 3/1
6 - Gunnevera 15/1
7 - Term of Art 30/1
8 - Senior Investment 30/1
9 - Lookin At Lee 10/1
10 - Conquest Mo Money 15/1
Should be fun to see AD vs CE running next to eachother.
you still on Hence?
I haven't made any definite decisions regarding him, Mac, but I can see myself being the forgiving type and using him some considering what price he'll be. I've been interested in playing Conquest Mo Money in this race for a while now, though. Basically ever since the owners of him decided to skip the Derby, give him a little rest, and then point towards the Preakness. That one will be my main focus I do believe, especially if I can get him at 15/1.
Odds for the Preakness winner on 5dimes:
Cloud Computing +1350
Always Dreaming +110
Classic Empire +300
Term of Art +4000
Senior Investment +3300
Lookin at Lee +1050
Conquest Mo Money +1900
There's a lot of other lines available too if anyone is interested.
Do you have any thoughts on the race, T?
I think I'm going to give Hence another shot after rewatching the Derby again. He had a pretty horrible trip in that race with him getting bounced around like a pinball at the start of the race which pushed him way back. Then he had that trouble on the far turn when he had his momentum stunted when the jock tried to take him outside only to find him running up on a wall of horses in front of him. Hence still showed a little bit of finish despite those troubles, though, and passed a lot of horses in the stretch after being basically last when turning for home. His trainer also said the horse hated having mud kicked in his face, and you could see visual evidence of that on a couple of occasions when watching the race again. At 20/1 I can give him a pass and cross a line through that race considering I liked him going into the Derby. Plus horses who run a dud race when I bet him seem to have a knack for running really well next time out it seems. American Anthem just won a graded stakes last weekend after I backed his dud in the Santa Anita Derby. Wild Shot won a graded stakes race a couple of weeks ago right after I backed his dud in the Blue Grass. Ditto for Senior Investment, who won a graded stakes race right after I backed his dud in the Louisiana Derby. Creator last year won the Belmont in his next race right after I backed him in the Derby. Etc., etc. Seems to happen quite often with horses I back. At least often enough to where it's bugging me a little bit anyways. I'd hate to not be on Hence in some way if he somehow runs a big one tomorrow. I also like that Asmussen, after being unsure right after the Derby, quickly changed his mind on entering Hence in the Preakness as that's a confident move that says that the Derby took nothing out of the horse. We also have the interesting move with Term of Art getting blinkers added for the race as a way of trying to get some more early speed out of that one. The owners of Term of Art are the same owners of Hence, so while it maybe a reach to get that much early speed out of a plodder like Term of Art, maybe they're going to try to use that one as a rabbit in a way for Hence. We'll see. I'm not sure why a horse like Term of Art is even in this race otherwise since his chances are pretty much zero.
The early race tactics in this race are going to be interesting regardless on how Term of Art is used, though, and I think the whole key to the race is how Classic Empire breaks from the gate and the position he finds himself in on 1st turn. The trainer of Classic Empire has been making it pretty clear that they want to put pressure on Always Dreaming right from the beginning as @kenfloshogun alluded to, and the horse has a great post for doing exactly that if he does break well. That'll put Always Dreaming in a position he's never been in and one that he may not be comfortable with. He's always been the outside pace pressing horse save for the races he got the easy lead in. We also know that Conquest Mo Money is going to be up close and with a good chance to be on the lead going around the 1st turn. If that's the case then Always Dreaming could find himself in a very bad position having Conquest Mo Money ahead of him and Classic Empire right beside him putting on pressure in the early running. If Classic Empire doesn't break well and Conquest Mo Money goes to to the lead then Always Dreaming may get that outside stalking trip once again and will be very tough to beat if it plays out that way, although putting away a horse like Conquest Mo Money is going to be no easy task at all compared to what he's had to put away in his recent races (he got passed by Classic Empire at the end of the Arkansas Derby, but ran up to him and passed him on the gallop out, so maybe he didn't see him coming from the outside in that race). Conquest Mo Money is a battler as he's shown in every race so far and should be so once again. There's also the possibility that Always Dreaming gets the early lead and will have Conquest Mo Money stalking him from the outside, and again, he'll be pressure by a horse that's not going to give in easily if it plays out that way. It's going to be really interesting seeing how Classic Empire breaks out of the gate in the race and how all the early positioning plays out. If Classic Empire and Always Dreaming are too busy worrying about each other in the race then there's a real chance Conquest Mo Money steals this race on the front end as he'll be left alone by those other two. That's what I'm hoping for anyways, but I'll be okay with Conquest Mo Money stalking outside Always Dreaming as well. If Always Dreaming is the one stalking outside then that's not so good, but that horse is probably going to be having a target on his back considering he's the Derby winner and viewed as the one to beat by the others. There's also the chance that all three of those horses are prompting and pressuring each other, which then opens the race for an off the pace type like Hence. But we'll see how it plays out. I don't want Hence to be too far back, though. If you watch his races with an eye on herd dynamics, he's a horse who does his best running when a part of a group. Not when he's sitting last or when he's sitting first. He likes the challenge of being behind some and in front of some. His best running has come when he sees that positioning, so hopefully the jock has him somewhat involved early on.
Done any capping on the other races sharkey?
Unfortunately, any analysis I could provide would be embarrassing compared to the expert level stuff you share in here. But, I do have two plays locked in so far:
0.5u Conquest Mo Money to win +2000
0.5u Hence to win +2300
Two horses who we've used in the past past and I remember there was some discussion after the Arkansas Derby and Conquest Mo Money skipping the Kentucky Derby, that he profiled well for the Preakness. I'm actually going to be at track in Saratoga tomorrow (for a beer fest) and I'm hoping they'll be showing the race.
Yeah, I'll be playing a horse by the name of Watch Me Whip to win & place in the Sir Barton if he's anything close to his 12/1 morning line odds. I'll take half that actually. He's only had the one race in his career so far, but it was a very good one while being wide the whole way and I think all the potential is there for him to be simply the be the best and most talented horse in the field, and maybe not by a little bit either. But considering his lack of experience there is that question mark, though. Hedge Fund is a good horse, a deserving favourite, and may be too tough for him at this point in the game. But nothing else scares me in that race in the slightest, so I have no problem playing Watch Me Whip to finish top 2 at the odds he'll be offered up at.
Yeah, Conquest Mo Money's thorograph sheet is what me talked about I think, and that sheet read gave him a very good chance to run as good or better than he has ever ran before in his next race. His next race being tomorrow. His last race was really good too, and really gutsy considering he was being challenged inside and out from horses the whole way around the track and just barely lost at the finish to Classic Empire. Conquest Mo Money ran the best effort in that race, though, and was right there with the Derby's 4th place finisher and ahead of the Derby's 2nd place finisher. I also talked about how he reminded me so much of Shackleford too, who won the Preakness in 2011. I can't get that comparison out of my head actually. Both very similar horses in running style, competiveness, and have almost the exact same action when they run.
Whitmore seems like a free bingo space in the Maryland Sprint tomorrow, no? He's not going to pay much considering he's 9/5 on the morning line, but I personally think the chances of him winning are probably significantly better than what that 9/5 indicates. I kind of feel bad for @mkess101 since he backed Whitmore last year in the Derby, which ended up being the only bad race that horse has ever ran. He's basically been unbeatable since then as that's also the last race he's lost. He's won every race he's been in since the Derby and I'd expect that streak to continue tomorrow.
The track is still pretty wet from all the rain they got yesterday. It's listed as muddy currently. That's just fucking great. Hopefully it dries out enough in the next few hours, but with it being cloudy and cool who the hell knows if it will.