Hence: 80.5, 83.5, 100 (93) * 9 3/4, 7, 3 (P, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.3 feet * 4/5
- A combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final 9F prep of 95 or greater
- A maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure over the last 3 races going into the Derby (less than 4 pt drop in either of their last two races)
- Best combined BSF/BRIS came in their last prep at 9F
- Brisnet late pace figure of at least 95 in their final prep at 9F
- Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their final prep but not drastically so
- Having one of the four positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P, T), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep with 1st being preferred
- Showed a stride length of at least 23.5 feet at the end of their final prep race at 9F
- Have at least a 6 count when combining races that are over a mile in length and that featured 10+ field sizes, or at least 3 races at over a mile with 2 races with 10+ field sizes
Hence checks in having a combined BSF/BRIS figure of 95 or greater, which has produced 16 of the past 17 Derby winners, and 45 of the 51 top 3 finishers in that span.
Hence checks in having a maintain or improve pattern to his combined BSF/BRIS figures over his last 3 races, which was seen on 15 of the last 17 Derby winners going into the race, and 42 of the 51 top 3 finishers in that span.
Hence checks in having his best combined BSF/BRIS figure coming in his last prep at 9F, which has produced 12 of the last 17 Derby winners, and 37 of the 51 top 3 finishers in that span.
With a 93 BRIS late pace figure in his last race, Hence just missed the 95 late pace cutoff, which has produced 16 of the last 17 Derby winners, and 40 of the 51 top 3 finishers in that span.
Hence checks in having ran a new top on thorograph in his last race, but not drastically so, which is what 19 of the last 35 Derby winners went into the race off of.
Hence checks in having a positive thorograph pattern over hos last two races, which has produced 29 of the last 35 Derby winners, 16 of the last 20 Derby winners, and 44 of the 60 top 3 finishers in that 20 year span.
Hence checks in having finished 1st or 2nd in his last prep race, which is what 33 of the last 40 Derby winners have done so in their final prep race.
Hence checks in having an estimated stride length of 24.3 feet at the end of his final prep, which is above the 23.5 foot cutoff that 18 of the last 20 Derby winners have shown in their final prep. Hence also only had about a 1.5 foot falloff to his late stride length compared to what it was earlier and that was after being forced to run some pretty fast fractions early, and after he started his late run about 5F from the line. That was a long sustained run he showed na dhe did a tremenous job of maintaining his length all the way to the wire.
Hence checks in having 4 races over a mile and 5 races where he saw field sizes of 10+, which is well above the cutoff which has produced 13 of the last 17 Derby winners and 40 of the 51 top 3 finishers in that span.
With him having checked in 8 categories (just missing the 9th) Hence is one of only a handful of horses this year that will have checked in at least 5 categories, which is what every Derby winner over the past 17 years have done. He's also the only one to have checked in 8 or 9 categories, which is what 9 of the past 17 Derby winners have done going into the race.
In addition;
With his Brisnet E1 pace figure of 106, his E2 pace figure of 108, his late pace figure of 93, and his final figure of 103, Hence is the only horse in this year's field who has ran above the Derby pars for each of those in his final prep. Over the last decade there's been 15 horses who went into the Derby after having done so in their final prep, and that produced 4 winners, 3 second place finishers, and 2 third place finishers in the Derby.
Hence's E1 in his last race was 19 points higher than he had ever did before and his E2 was 17 points higher than ever before, and he did that after coming from off the pace. Thus he fits that "lung opener" angle I like so much with these types, which sets up a horse very well for their next race. Hence has also been thriving at Churchill Downs the last couple of weeks while matching a naturally faster horse than him in his workouts, in addition to showing a lot of energy in his gallops around the track as well. To my eye, Hence also looks like he bulked up some compared to the last time he raced as well.
Along with Classic Empire, Hence is only one of the two horses who fit the fast final fractions/Buckpasser X/Raise A Native sire line angle that Stan Caris came up with some years ago. An angle that, in the last 40 years, has only seen 30 horses that fit the bill with 15 of them finishing either 1st or 2nd in the Derby (8 won).
Am I forgetting something? Not sure. But this guy is coming into the race in great form as compared with past Derby winners and the profiles we've come up with. He's one of the few that should have no issues with the 10F Derby distance considering his pedigree, his stride length and length maintenance, the visual impression after his last race, and the way he's looked the last couple of weeks out on the track giving the suggestion he's in peak condition. He's also an adaptable sort, who's not pace dependant unlike a lot of this year's horses in the field. He's won while sitting up close to the pace (and overcoming a shitload of adversity while doing so...stumbled start and spooked badly in the lane) and he's won coming from near the back while showing he had a huge sustained run. Like every other horse in the race, he's going to need a little luck on his side just due to the sheer size of the field. Or more accurately, avoid the bad luck scenarios. But what's not to like with this one? He fits in so many ways, and while he's not exactly going to be a secret to some come Derby time due to the attention he got last week, he should still be a very good price when he enters the gates.
