I'm going to try our old buddy, Good Samaritan (12/1 ML), in the G1 Whitney coming up in just over an hour.
I haven't been able to access the Brisnet PP's today from our regular place, although when I did the numbers for this race a couple of days ago I had him ranked 3rd behind both Mind Your Biscuits and Diversify. He was a clear enough 3rd as well (11.2 points ahead of Tapwrit who's 4th) Just think there are a few reasons to take a shot against the two favourites with Diversify having a regressive pattern with a big effort in his last race, and then hopefully the presence of Dalmore and/or Backyard Heaven ensure Diversify has early company on the front end. Mind Your Biscuits has never raced 9F before, has never been around two turns in a race, and over the last 2 years his 3 worst races have came over this Saratoga track. They are the two best horses in the race, and odds are pretty good that that one of them wins. Just don't think those odds are 7/5 or 2/1 which is what they are on the morning lines, so worth taking a shot against.
Good Samaritan is coming into this race with a nice pattern, and having paired up his last two races. He likes this distance having won two of his three starts at it, while finishing a half length back in his other one. His three best races races figure-wise have come at 9F. Saratoga is his home track and either his best, or 2nd best race of his career came over it last year in the Jim Dandy. His jockey for this race, Jose Ortiz, chose him over Tapwrit which is interesting since he's been on Tapwrit for that horse's last 8 races. Good Samaritan also has the best late pace numbers in the race as well should things heat up on the front end early between 2 or 3 horses. There's a couple of other positives as well that I'd be able to point out if I could access the PP's, but that's a few. There's some negatives too of course with him being a closer who's pace dependent and him coming off a race that wasn't impressive at all in the Met Mile. But he's not a one turn horse who could ever keep in striking distance of a 45 second pace to the half mile like he saw in that race, so maybe he deserves a bit of an excuse. I guess you can do that when a horse may be 12/1.
So yeah, I'll try Good Samaritan to win/place for $10/$20 I do believe. I'm also thinking about keying him in the 2nd spot in a pair of $5 exactas under Mind Your Biscuits and Diversify since my numbers do have those as the two horses to beat (by 27 and 19 points over Good Samaritan). A bit of a 'just in case' defensive play there with the value underneath, and hoping at least one of them don't run there good race.
