Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

t6p said:
Sounds like American Lincoln is worth a small bet at least, no? I'm in if you are Shark.

Looks like I'm going to be in Saratoga next weekend so I'm looking forward to getting back into it. I haven't bet a race in forever it seems.
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I don't know, T. That's what I was hoping you'd be able to help me figure out whether it be with your read or with your gut. Hofburg isn't going to be 100% cranked, but 90% Hofburg is still going to laugh at this field. 80% Hofburg is probably still good enough to beat this field too. The circumstances of Hofburg being entered in this race instead of the Jim Dandy and with the Travers in his near future is peculiar. But the again, I don't want to throw money away on something you or I don't really believe in. Hofburg is also a Bill Mott trained horse and I talked about how conservative Mott tends to be going into the Derby. If Hofburg was trained by say Pletcher or somebody like that and entered him in this spot, the red flag would be a flying and I'd be all over trying to beat him this race and would recommend you do the same. But this one is a much tougher read.
 
Holy shit @t6p. I just tuned into the Saratoga track feed and it is absolutely pissing down rain on the track right now. Haha. It's crazy actually. Hopefully you can avoid this stuff next weekend when you're there.
 
Sharkey said:
Holy shit @t6p. I just tuned into the Saratoga track feed and it is absolutely pissing down rain on the track right now. Haha. It's crazy actually. Hopefully you can avoid this stuff next weekend when you're there.
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Well, that probably makes our decision about playing American Lincoln a lot easier then, haha.

I'm about 100 miles south of Saratoga and after a month or two of basically no rain we've been getting downpours on and off everyday for the past week. I hope it clears up by next weekend, I've been forced to stay in the clubhouse area before in the rain and it's not nearly as much fun.
 
t6p said:
Well, that probably makes our decision about playing American Lincoln a lot easier then, haha.

I'm about 100 miles south of Saratoga and after a month or two of basically no rain we've been getting downpours on and off everyday for the past week. I hope it clears up by next weekend, I've been forced to stay in the clubhouse area before in the rain and it's not nearly as much fun.
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We could use some rain up here where I live that's for sure. We're a mix of mountains, forest, and desert up here in Kamloops and it gets extremely hot and dry in the summers. Forest fires are a huge problem every year fur us folks. Winters are great because they're so mild compared to the rest of Canada. But the summer month are terrible unless you're from Arizona or somewhere like that.

And don't be so quick to pass on that race yet, my friend. Rain was on my mind for today as I did mention Saratoga was getting a lot of it recently. Look at the PP's and you'll see that the field has a combined 6 starts on an off track with only 2 finishes between them all that hit the board. Those 2 good finishes on an off track were by one horse. American Lincoln who has only ran on an off track twice. He'll be okay, and in fact the wet stuff may help his chances since he's already shown he can handle it and with him having a good chance to have a forward position early in the race thus avoiding the mud getting kicked in his face.
 
Sharkey said:
We could use some rain up here where I live that's for sure. We're a mix of mountains, forest, and desert up here in Kamloops and it gets extremely hot and dry in the summers. Forest fires are a huge problem every year fur us folks. Winters are great because they're so mild compared to the rest of Canada. But the summer month are terrible unless you're from Arizona or somewhere like that.

And don't be so quick to pass on that race yet, my friend. Rain was on my mind for today as I did mention Saratoga was getting a lot of it recently. Look at the PP's and you'll see that the field has a combined 6 starts on an off track with only 2 finishes between them all that hit the board. Those 2 good finishes on an off track were by one horse. American Lincoln who has only ran on an off track twice. He'll be okay, and in fact the wet stuff may help his chances since he's already shown he can handle it and with him having a good chance to have a forward position early in the race thus avoiding the mud getting kicked in his face.
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Like I said bud, I'm in if you're in! Sorry I can't be more help. I feel like I'm out of the loop and my opinion wouldn't really mean much.
 
@t6p

American Lincoln to win for $10. Pulling out the big bucks for this one. Haha. But I did put a bit of work in capping the race and have some thoughts & doubts about horses in it, so I may as well play it small. Plus us degenerates can finally get a bet in to start the 2nd half of the year. We're unlikely to win, but it's only $10, so that's nothing. And if we win we'll get a decent return on the longest shot in the field.
 



I'm not sure I have ever seen a horse get as much hype as this one has before it has even made it's caeer debut. Actually, I know I haven't, and it's not even close. And all because Baffert made some comment about him in passing when pressed by a TMZ interviewer. Now all of a sudden this Roadster is being declared next year's Derby and possible Triple Crown winner by a bunch of parrots. Who knows, maybe he will be. But you can't just go around declaring such things simply because of a quick comment by the horse's trainer.
 
Sharkey said:
@t6p

American Lincoln to win for $10. Pulling out the big bucks for this one. Haha. But I did put a bit of work in capping the race and have some thoughts & doubts about horses in it, so I may as well play it small. Plus us degenerates can finally get a bet in to start the 2nd half of the year. We're unlikely to win, but it's only $10, so that's nothing. And if we win we'll get a decent return on the longest shot in the field.
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Count me in. GL Shark.
 
t6p said:
Had to step away but just caught the replay. What can you do, it was worth the shot.
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I liked our horse's position for most of the race being on the lead like he was on a day when horses on/near the lead have been winning everything. May have gone a little too quick that first quarter getting the lead, though, which he paid for late. But it didn't matter. He wasn't nearly good enough regardless, and Hofburg was just way too good even if he wasn't fully cranked.
 
Sharkey said:
I liked our horse's position for most of the race being on the lead like he was on a day when horses on/near the lead have been winning everything. May have gone a little too quick that first quarter getting the lead, though, which he paid for late. But it didn't matter. He wasn't nearly good enough regardless, and Hofburg was just way too good even if he wasn't fully cranked.
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Any word on the Haskell results yet? We were right about Tenfold too. If you check my comments back before the Belmont, I said Tenfold was a monster, great big mover, but the draw reins they had meant he was mad uncontrollable. I didn't really see it in the Preakness, cuz we couldn't see anything, and he was lackluster in the Belmont but today he showed it. When he gets to the least, he wants to be around other horses - exact opposite of Justify. He has herd anxiety it looks and was fighting that bit like insane, very akin to Magnum Moon.


But wow - Amazing talent to be able to pull off what he did today, despite him running an extra twenty yards in the stretch <Lmaoo> Vino needs more room or to make his move earlier.
 
ImNotSurpisedDonks! said:
Any word on the Haskell results yet? We were right about Tenfold too. If you check my comments back before the Belmont, I said Tenfold was a monster, great big mover, but the draw reins they had meant he was mad uncontrollable. I didn't really see it in the Preakness, cuz we couldn't see anything, and he was lackluster in the Belmont but today he showed it. When he gets to the least, he wants to be around other horses - exact opposite of Justify. He has herd anxiety it looks and was fighting that bit like insane, very akin to Magnum Moon.


But wow - Amazing talent to be able to pull off what he did today, despite him running an extra twenty yards in the stretch <Lmaoo> Vino needs more room or to make his move earlier.
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The Haskell broadcast is going on now, bud, if you wanted to tune into it on NBC.
 
Sharkey said:
The Haskell broadcast is going on now, bud, if you wanted to tune into it on NBC.
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Just saw that, homie. All the winners from this weekend prove what a freak Big Red is, huh? Promises Fulfilled, Hofburg, Tenfold and Good Magic all proved their worth, but at the same time, vindicated Justify. When Good Magic pulled away today, I told my wife "Sharkey gotta be lovin' this shit!" Haha, and she was like "wtf is a Sharkey?!?" Lol Sherbros.......

Anyways, brother, great day for the sport! I like Accelerate in the Breeders Cup Classic, but Good Mag is up there!
 
ImNotSurpisedDonks! said:
Just saw that, homie. All the winners from this weekend prove what a freak Big Red is, huh? Promises Fulfilled, Hofburg, Tenfold and Good Magic all proved their worth, but at the same time, vindicated Justify. When Good Magic pulled away today, I told my wife "Sharkey gotta be lovin' this shit!" Haha, and she was like "wtf is a Sharkey?!?" Lol Sherbros.......

Anyways, brother, great day for the sport! I like Accelerate in the Breeders Cup Classic, but Good Mag is up there!
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Yeah, it was an interesting weekend for sure for the 3 year-old division, although there wasn't a single surprise to be seen with all the races being ran to form. Promises Fulfilled might have been the most impressive of the bunch, though, with him showing an added dimension stalking just behind a wicked fast pace and then still having enough left late to draw away and win by daylight over some nice sprinters. He's going to be really tough to beat in the King's Bishop on Travers day. Hofburg was impressive too, although he didn't beat anything in his race. But that was a powerful run by him going around the others on the outside on a day when their was an extreme inside speed bias at the track.

The Jim Dandy was underwhelming for me. Tenfold won and there were positives from his effort. But the way he drifted out in the stretch and tried to give the race away was definitely concerning. Can't be doing stuff like that in a race like the Travers, and he really shouldn't be doing that at this point in his career anyways. That lack of focus late shows he still has issues with immaturity. I made a casual win bet on Tenfold that race and for a second or two I thought my bet was screwed. Vino Rosso kinda stunk I thought. He looked completely disinterested for most of the race and only did a bit of running late when the pacesetters got as tired and slowed a bunch. He basically just clunked up, but then again, it was likely just being used a prep race in the classic sense for him. I'd expect better out of him in the Travers, although that is a much tougher race and a tougher field that he faced on Saturday. Flameaway you can't knock. But he's Flameaway, who generally does show up and gives a game effort. But he's also Flameaway who's just not as good and as classy as a bunch in this crop. The Jim Dandy came back slow on the beyer scale (92, 93-ish), which it should have considering it was a pretty lackluster race. Hofburg got a 100 BSF in comparison.

You can't knock Good Magic either. He's a good horse who sat a good trip all around the track and ran a typical good race for him. He did was he was supposed to do, I guess, when against 2nd tier competition like Bravazo, Lone Sailor, and Core Beliefs. Haha, tell your wife I said hello. Honestly, though, I didn't really feel anything watching the Haskell. I didn't play the race at all, so no betting rooting interest for me. It was just kinda ho-hum for me, meaning the race was basically ran like it was supposed to be ran. I didn't see anything in the Haskell that would make me excited to be for or against Good Magic in the Travers.

Saying all this, if the Travers was tomorrow I'd be picking Hofburg. I've long felt that this was the upside horse out of this year's crop and that he had a big G1 race with his name on it coming to him a some point. The Derby and even the Belmont may have been a little too early for him in his development cycle. But I have a feeling that now is the time for him. You do have to respect the consistency, talent and especially the class of Good Magic, though. Tenfold can still be dangerous in the Travers too if internal or external factors finally allow him to run a complete race, which he really hasn't done so far. Gonna be quite interesting.
 
Sharkey said:
I'm not 100% sure, but I think it's Thunder Snow, bud, which Barbara Livingston captured when he was training for last year's Derby.
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Ah, I see. Barbara Livingston is awesome. Love her Man O' War book. Now that was a race hoss.

You guys see Baffert's next big horse that debuted the other day? I love the way this colt covers ground. They are awfully young now tho and lots can happen between now and Derby time, but you'd have to think Baffert has a nice shot. No way Mike Smith is on top of a maiden horse unless they are dang good. Chances are, if you got an elite TC horse, you are going to Baffert, just like Winstar did.



Also, Looch was back in the news today. The guy is legendary.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/n...quit_ownership_after_outpouring_of_suport_123

What a shame all the mom and pop owners are being pushed out. There used to be a time when regular people would invest in race horses above stocks and it was the most popular sport in the country. My grandma invested in a mare in the late 60's and my great grandfather had two trotters in the 30's and 40's. Now it is such an elite club with so many peculiarities and red tape. I'll be pulling for Dalmore at the Whitney but I'm afraid he does not have a shot.
 
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