Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[kenfloshogun]

Heading to Saratoga this Friday/Saturday - looking forward to it. Hope it doesn't rain.

 

[Black Paladin]

Saratoga RACE 1
#5 PARANOIA

 

[Sharkey]

Saratoga RACE 1
#5 PARANOIA

That one scratched according to Andy Serling, BP;



I like your idea on trying to beat out the heavy morning line favourite, though, with the #4 having not raced since last November, having a regressive pattern going into the layoff, and with it being a closer in a race with very little speed signed on. Even the second choice in the #2 looks like an easy play against for a lot of those same reasons. On paper, both the #6 and the #1 look like options if one or both those other two go off short. The #6 does look best to me as it may be the pace controller by default (and is the outside horse who can bully the others), is dropping in class, has a nice pattern for an improved race in it's 2nd race of it's form cycle, and also has the pace figures to suggest that as well (co-new pace top with the E2 angle too). The #1 looks okay too with it showing a good pattern, 3rd off the layoff, enough early speed to get involved early, consistency, and also has the E2 angle going for it. I may take a stab of playing that #6 - #1 exacta straight.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, I'll try the #6 to win for $10, and then the #6 over #1 exacta for $5. Odds of 5/2 are okay on the top horse on the numbers in what is only a 4 horse field.

 

[Sharkey]

Garbage

 

[Sharkey]

Gonna try a couple of races at Woodbine later on today;

==========

Race 4;

#5 Connors Seniorita 5/2 - 368.7
#2 Shez a Ten I Know 8/1 - 366.3
#7 Molinaro Deputy 7/2 - 343.2
#3 Sweet Retreat 6/1 - 339.2
#6 Zlatica 3/1 - 332.9
#8 Bid's Kid 8/1 - 327.3
#1 Freshieintheforest 20/1 - 318.0
#4 Apple of His Eye 15/1 - 313.0

For this one I'll probably play the #2 to win. Then key both the #5 and #2 on top in trifectas with the other one in 2nd and 3rd, and then using the #7 and #3 with them to fill out the other trifecta spot.

==========

Race 7;

#2 Bilky Bluz 2/1 - 413.6
#5 Lady Bella 5/1 - 386.7
#7 Missy Crissy 12/1 - 373.8
#4 Kate's Whistle 8/5 - 372.4
#3 Princess Bullett 15/1 - 362.4
#6 Flamenco Dancer 10/1 - 351.0
#1 Zdenka 6/1 - 343.1
#8 Ofelia Girl 20/1 - 312.7

For this one I'll just play the #2 over #5, #7, #3 in exactas and trifectas while trying to beat the #4 completely out as the 8/5 favourite.

==========

 

[Sharkey]

Gonna try a couple of races at Woodbine later on today;

==========

Race 4;

#5 Connors Seniorita 5/2 - 368.7
#2 Shez a Ten I Know 8/1 - 366.3
#7 Molinaro Deputy 7/2 - 343.2
#3 Sweet Retreat 6/1 - 339.2
#6 Zlatica 3/1 - 332.9
#8 Bid's Kid 8/1 - 327.3
#1 Freshieintheforest 20/1 - 318.0
#4 Apple of His Eye 15/1 - 313.0

For this one I'll probably play the #2 to win. Then key both the #5 and #2 on top in trifectas with the other one in 2nd and 3rd, and then using the #7 and #3 with them to fill out the other trifecta spot.

==========

Race 7;

#2 Bilky Bluz 2/1 - 413.6
#5 Lady Bella 5/1 - 386.7
#7 Missy Crissy 12/1 - 373.8
#4 Kate's Whistle 8/5 - 372.4
#3 Princess Bullett 15/1 - 362.4
#6 Flamenco Dancer 10/1 - 351.0
#1 Zdenka 6/1 - 343.1
#8 Ofelia Girl 20/1 - 312.7

For this one I'll just play the #2 over #5, #7, #3 in exactas and trifectas while trying to beat the #4 completely out as the 8/5 favourite.

==========

Win bet for $20 on the #2 here in race 4. Trifectas for $5 each.

Exactas for $10 and trifectas for $5 in race 7, so it's a nice and even $60 per race which I'm likely going to be saying goodbye to.

 

[Sharkey]

Well, that was terrible all around. I bet the #2 when it was 9/2 with a couple minutes to post, it drops down to 2/1 odds as they were entering the gates, and proceeds to finish off the board. I was going to cancel the bet when it dropped like that too, but didn't. Shame on me.

A 21/1 longshot won the race.

 

[Sharkey]

Lost the trifecta by a length in race 7. Would have paid a nice amount too with the #4 finishing off the board as the big favourite.

 

[t6p]

Lost the trifecta by a length in race 7. Would have paid a nice amount too with the #4 finishing off the board as the big favourite.

Damn it Shark, that’s a rough break. You got the exacta though right?

 

[Sharkey]

Damn it Shark, that’s a rough break. You got the exacta though right?

Nah, I had the #2 keyed on top of everything and he finished 2nd by a length to the #7 and then the #5 finished 3rd. If the #2 had another length in him I was looking at more than a grand in profit, but came up just a bit short. Right horses, wrong order. It's okay, though.

 

[Sharkey]

Gonna try the #2 Let Me Go First to win here in race 2 at Saratoga. I have that one ranked 2nd by just a little bit (2.7 points behind the #3), and is currently sitting at 6/1 with 10 mins to post and the will-pays say the odds should be close to that as they leave the gates.

 

[Sharkey]

Hopefully Jason Servis didn't forget to give this #2 horse a shot of "magic" when making the rounds of his barn.

 

[Sharkey]

I have it ranked last, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if this #4 horse runs a good race as a 25/1 bomber with it being both a new pace top and E2 horse.

 

[Sharkey]

I'll try a couple more at Saratoga today;

==========

Race 5;

#6 Giant Run 5/1 - 523.2
#4 Tusk 6/1 - 517.1
#8 Souperfast 9/2 - 514.5
#1 Thatcher Street 7/2 - 513.1
#7 Lucky Ramsey 5/1 - 496.6
#10 Astounding 3/1 - 479.9
#3 Zefiro 8/1 - 479.1
#2 Shamcat 20/1 - 462.7

I think I'm going to try some $2 trifectas here with the #6 keyed in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on all of them. Basically it's three separate trifecta boxes; #6, #4, #8 and #6, #4, #1 and #6, #8, #1. I'll also try a $1 superfecta box with the top 4 as well.

==========

Race 7;

#5 Hollywood Handsome 4/1 - 515.0
#2 Adulator 3/1 - 512.3
#6 Casses Story 6/1 - 504.7
#7 Virtual Machine 5/1 - 499.8
#4 Tapsolute 6/1 - 493.7
#1 General Downs 10/1 - 488.0
#8 Admiral Blue 7/2 - 482.0

Not sure how I'm going to play this yet beyond the fact that I'd like to play the #6 horse here more than the others. Maybe win bet that one and then ex & tri box the top 3. Maybe.

==========

 

[Sharkey]

I'm basically following @t6p's strategy of boxing them up. If I boxed my top three last night at Woodbine and again in race 2 at Saratoga today I would have hit both tris, so live and learn as they say.

 

[Sharkey]

If I can hit this tri in race 5 it should pay quite well as the #10 is a pretty heavy favourite right now (and will-pays say it should remain so) and I'm not using that one at all.

 

[t6p]

I'm basically following @t6p's strategy of boxing them up. If I boxed my top three last night at Woodbine and again in race 2 at Saratoga today I would have hit both tris, so live and learn as they say.

I don't have any numbers to back it up but I do feel like boxing has been a profitable move for me over the years. When I was up at Saratoga a few weeks back I played a boxed exacta and trifecta on almost every race that I bet. I ended up hitting a bunch of exactas and one trifecta that I wouldn't have hit if they weren't boxed. I didn't win a crazy amount, but I was able to cover all my expenses for the entire trip with my winnings so I was more than happy with that.

Also, I'm tailing you on this race #5 coming up too bud. I have to leave so I won't be able to watch but thanks for posting and good luck!

 

[Sharkey]

Jesus. 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th with the big favourite ruining everything of mine by finishing 3rd. Fuck.

 

[Sharkey]

I don't have any numbers to back it up but I do feel like boxing has been a profitable move for me over the years. When I was up at Saratoga a few weeks back I played a boxed exacta and trifecta on almost every race that I bet. I ended up hitting a bunch of exactas and one trifecta that I wouldn't have hit if they weren't boxed. I didn't win a crazy amount, but I was able to cover all my expenses for the entire trip with my winnings so I was more than happy with that.

Also, I'm tailing you on this race #5 coming up too bud. I have to leave so I won't be able to watch but thanks for posting and good luck!

I may try that for a while, T, provided I have at least one decent price horse included or in situations where I'm trying to beat out the favourite.