Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    One option for me tomorrow evening;

    Race 8 at Evangeline Downs - #7 Tale of Beaucette 5/1 (31.1% = 5/2 fair odds)

    I'll play this one to win for $30 at it's fair odds or better and if there is a dry track. The #4, #7, #8 exacta box is also an option on a dry track regardless of what odds the #7 goes off at. The #7 over #4, #8 over #4, #8 trifecta option is there as well.
     
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  2. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    ==========

    Race 8 at Evangeline Downs;

    1- 369.3
    1A- 412.6
    2- 403.4
    3- 360.8
    4- 455.5 Inspire Courage 6/1 **
    5- 418.3
    6- 413.1
    7- 467.7 Tale of Beaucette 5/1 ***
    8- 440.0 Reckless Ransom 4/1 *

    ==========

    What do you think @t6p? Should I play this race #4, #7 / #4, #7, #8 / #4, #7, #8 in exactas and tris instead of boxing and keying? It's the same number of combinations overall either way. I'm sure you've noticed by now that I've been concentrating on playing outside horses in sprint races (or one turn) that have enough early speed to get a position that a) clears the field from the outside and gets to the lead, b) gets a trip sitting just outside the leader, or c) gets a clear outside stalking trip sitting just behind the early leaders. The #4 horse scares me a little bit, though, as there is the potential it gets to be lone speed up front with no pressure. I suspect either the #7 or #8 does pressure him from an outside path around the turn. But there is that chance they don't.
     
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  3. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Hmm, tough one there bud. I'm tempted to say box both the exactas and tris since your only playing three horses in the race. If my math is correct that would add 4 total combinations (8 vs 12?). I'm just thinking it would really suck if those horses finished top three but the 8 won, and it's not like he's that far behind on the numbers.
     
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  4. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Yeah, I think you may be right, T. Boxing them may be the best decision. At least when it comes to the exacta anyways. I was orginally thinking about boxing the exacta for $5 if I get the odds on the #7 horse, but was also thinking about upping it to $10 if I didn't (total cost is the same either way). I was also going to try the trifecta for $5 as well, although I may play that more narrowly just to cut risk. The #8 is a dangerous horse for sure. Classes up as well as any in the field, is in good form with a great pattern, and also should get a nice outside stalking trip in the race. He's was actually the horse that grabbed my eye at first and got me to do this race. Hard to see that one not being in the mix for the win as they round the turn and hit the stretch. You're right. A little protection with him covered in 1st somewhere wouldn't be a bad thing. I have him at an okay 16.4% chance to win based just on the numbers, so it's not like he's an unlikely winner.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
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  5. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I may take a shot with this horse coming up in about a half hour;

    Race 6 at Belmont - #11 Hard Way Winner 6/1 (18.5% = 9/2 fair odds)

    I gave this one a look last night, but there appeared to be too much early speed signed on for the race that would have done this guy in. But a couple of those other early speed types have scratched out, so this guy's job on the front end might not be as tasking as it appeared earlier. I am a little worried about him being strictly a need the lead type, though, so I need better than my fair odds on him. Hopefully he can rate just outside another horse if he has to and I play him.
     
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  6. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Nope, the horse couldn't rate effectively and as such shits the bed.
     
  7. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Just going to play for the exacta (boxed for $10) and trifecta (two combos at $5 each) here, as it looks like the #7 is going to go off the favourite in the 5/2 range.
     
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  8. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    I’m in Shark. Let’s do this.
     
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  9. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    The 7/2 right now on the #7 is teasing me, T., but I have a feeling he's going to be one of those 7/2 when enetring the gates and 2/1 when leaving them. I'm already in with the plays anyways. Best of luck, bud.
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    That's all ours.
     
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  11. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    You’re making this look way too easy @Sharkey!!
     
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  12. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Disappointing payouts, though, since we weren't the only ones who thought it was a 3 horse race. $70 into $265 is still okay, though. I guess.
     
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  13. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    It’s more than okay bud, it’s a nice hit. Thanks again. I’m in awe of the run that you’ve been on lately.
     
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  14. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I suppose. But I was feeling greedy today, T. Haha. Cheers.
     
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  15. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    It looks like that is what's going to happen;





    Allowing Bolt some time to be nothing more than a simple horse certainly can't hurt. I mean, it's not like the freedom of the farm is going to take away his desire to be a race horse anymore since he's already acting like his heart isn't into it. So yeah, a good 'nothing to lose' move on his trainer's part for once with only upside to it.

    @ImNotSurpisedDonks!
     
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  16. ImNotSurpisedDonks!

    ImNotSurpisedDonks! Silver Belt

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    I did a little research on Ruis, as I'm kinda stumped as to why he has been so stubborn in not admitting he may be the problem. He was a highscool drop out but a stand out wrestler, had no background in horse training, made millions in contracting by applying that grinding wrestling mentality and said you can do anything by applying that same mentality to anything else. After he made money, he wanted to buy race horses and did got around 50 head.

    One thing about horse race training is that you REALLY have to know horses, when to sit them, when to breeze them, when to sit them, how to train them, what equipment to use, etc - simple hard work just does not cut it. I've seen interviews with the guy and he did not even know what the large heart gene was. Baffert was training his dad's horses when he was just a kid. Aidan grew up under his dad, who was also an excellent trainer. Assmussen also came from horses and racing. Lukas also had horses and cut his tooth on the quarter horse track, also applied his years of coaching basketball to the barn. Ruis simply just doesn't not know what he doesn't not know, like many stubborn yet successful business men,and sadly for the horse, he went from rendering the second highest Brisnet in the pre Derby (and did it as a young two year old!) to not finishing past the wire first in his whole three year old season. Naturally tho, I expect Ruis to put the blame on someone/something else and not turn the colt over to a Chad Brown, who could clearly take this horse to heights he simply could not.

    Whenever a horse is out standing like Bolt was early on, it is generally that talent is enough to get it by, and when he keeps dwindling and declining, it is then because the owner does not know what he is doing and is ruining it. If Baffert, Steve or Chad had this horse, I really think things would have been different.
     
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  17. ImNotSurpisedDonks!

    ImNotSurpisedDonks! Silver Belt

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    Lol, I thought I was harsh on Ruis, but look at these comments!







     
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  18. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    To be fair to Ruis, all of the top trainers have had horses go bad on them for various reasons and were never able to get them to return to their previous top form. But those top trainers would have also identified a confidence issue with their horses too, and backed off on them, and entered them in easier races. Not taken a horse like Bolt and put him into the toughest race of his life after showing signs that his will to race was dwindling in his previous start. The Met Mile is one of the most prestigious dirt races in North America for older mature horses, and it routinely draws fields that are comparable in overall strength to almost any other dirt race. What Ruis basically did as an equivalent was to take a young minor league pitcher who was struggling with his confidence in say AA ball, and called him up to the big show to take on MLB hitters. It's dumb. It's stupid and it's hardly ever going to produce positive results.

    It's likely that Bolt is ruined for good because of that decision by Ruis, but if there is one trainer that could get him back on the right path it's Steve Asmussen. Steve is the active leader in all time wins by far, and one of his specialties are reclammation projects like Bolt. He's as patient as they come when it comes to his horses, and a big reason why he has so many wins is that he knows what races his horses belong in. He'll rarely put them in over their heads in a race where they're going to completely embarrass themselves in like Ruis did to Bolt last weekend (or a lot of trainers do). Steve is also about as good as they come when it comes to maintaining a horse's form over a lengthy period of time because of his patience with them and how he builds them up over time. When he gets a top horse like Curlin, Rachel, Gun Runner, etc., they stay a top horse for an extended period of time. Moreso than any other trainer out there today. If there is a way to to help Bolt recapture his will to compete and if there is a future for him still as a race horse, Asmussen would be the guy to find it. If he can't then I doubt anyone could.
     
  19. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I may try this guy a couple of hours from now;

    Race 2 at Evangeline Downs - #6 Judge N Ruler (23.1% = 7/2 fair odds)

    Rain is a possibility, so I'll pass if that's the case. Need a dry track and hopefully something a little better than it's fair odds, which I'm not sure I'll get unless everyone goes big on the favourite.
     
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  20. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Track got some rain, so this guy is a pass for me regardless.
     
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