Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.
Watch Restoring Hope's jockey (in the pink) from around the 0:07 to 0:10 of the video. He's clearing asking Restoring Hope to turn outward into the path of the horses outside of him. Can't see it in this video, but if you watch the head-on of the race, you can also see him yank Restoring Hope's head hard to the left around the first turn (Restoring Hope was already just outside Justify then) once Bravazo took a peak between the two horses up front.
Stupid Restoring Hope also got in the way of Tenfold, who had to check hard at the 1:45 to 1:50 mark and stunted all his momentum. But that was more the fault of Tenfold's jock if anything since he elected to try that outside move instead of simply following Bravazo along the rail like he should have.
Fucking Baffert and his dirty tactics cost the Pletcher/Repole duo a chance to use their own less dirty tactics.
Looks like both the #3 and #4 scratched from this race, which sucks, as they were the 2nd and 3rd choices on the morning line. I'll still play for the trifecta and super, though (without the #4 obviously). Just not sure about that exacta box now since the #2 horse may end being the public's alternative and may go off as the 2nd choice. I may end up only playing the exacta trying to get the #8 home in the top 2. We'll see what the potential payouts are, though. Still a big field, so payouts may be okay enough to keep the exacta box.
How does this look @t6p? You're the ticket structuring expert of our little group here.
#8 to win/place for $20 each ($40)
#2, #6, #8 exacta box for $6 ($36)
#6 / #2, #8 / #2, #5, #8, #11 trifectas for $2 each ($12)
#6 / #2, #8 / #2, #5, #8, #11 / #2, #5, #8, #11 superfectas for $1 each ($12)
I only did this race because the #8 horse had the look of what I typically look for when browsing PP's and that was confirmed when I did the numbers for it. But the numbers stacked up well to try to hit this race big too when it came to exotics. If the #8 horse runs a big one I'm getting paid with my straight bets on him and potentially in the exacta as well. Then again, if the favourite runs to his odds as the best horse on the numbers I still have the potential to get paid big and especially if the #8 runs 2nd. As cheap as this race is, I'd still like to absolutely crush it.
Love it Shark, looks great to me. I'm going to tail you on all of these. I'll be driving home from work during the race so I'm just going to go ahead and put it all in now. Best of luck and as always, thanks for sharing.
Let's crush it, T!
It's a sloppy track right now, but we should be okay. Maybe more than okay since we'll be on the four highest figure horses over an off track and all but one have enough early speed to get into a position to avoid the mud kicked into there faces. The #8 actually has the highest figure at a 97, and is 4-4-2 over 18 starts running over the wet stuff. H'es plenty used to it and runs well on it compared to others in the race. The only concern is the #2 horse, as he has only ran over it twice and neither effort was great. But he's bred for it as much as anybody in the race, and I'm chalking it's poor recent race over an off track down to being too close to a fast early pace (46 half mile in a route race, and pace +11, +9 above par) rather than the track conditions itself.
I don't care for the track, but Parx has been quite good to me since I started looking for specific type of horses actually. I'm 3 for 4 there over the past 60 days (other one finished 3rd) when it comes to cashing winners, and I also got a nice exacta there not long ago. Fingers crossed my luck there continues.
You have to question someone who is much more excited to bet a friggin cheap claiming race than they were for a big G1 race with a triple crown on the line. Yeah well, whatever. 10/1 is 10/1 no matter what the race is.
20/1 on the morning line, opens at 5/2 in the betting. Well, the big bucks of @t6p did say he needed to get his bet in early. Little chance he goes off at anything close to 5/2, though.
Quit betting my longshot people. He sucks. He really does. He's a turd that is more likely to run last than first.
#8, #6, #2, #5 were the top 4 in order.
#8 wins easily at just over 9/1.
$100 risked, $450 return. Love it.
Shharrrkkkeeyyyy!! Just got home from work and saw the results. Holy shit, you are the man! Amazing call, you're on a serious hot streak right now. I really can't thank you enough bud.
I don't know where the hell it came from, but I had a good feeling about this race last night and this morning. An even better feeling now. I wasn't lying with that above post when I said I was more excited to bet this race today than the Belmont. Everything just lined up I guess when it came to identifying the #8 Baby Cat as a possible option, doing the numbers for the race, and then seeing the options to go with it. I think we did about as well as we could have hoped for with the way we played the race too.
I guess the #8 over #2 would have paid quite a bit better. Another $100 or so. But whatever. I can't be too greedy.
That’s awesome Shark. It’s pretty much the best feeling in gambling when a confident play comes through for you. Especially when it pays this well. Congrats, you deserve it.
Fuck missed this... keep a note to check this forum throughout the day...congrats on the win gents
Wow huge hit. Congrats boys.
Hey, I've been meaning to ask you. What made you play Gronkowski in the Belmont? There had to have been something beyond just the big odds. Just looking over his available figures and some other stuff, and I don't know what anybody could see in that horse. Whether it be thorograph, racing post ratings, etc., he was by far the slowest/worst horse going into the race. First time on lasix or on dirt could have improved him slightly, but he had a long way to improve just to become a contender to finish mid-pack when looking at his figures. And there's really not much Chad Brown could have done to improve him as much as was needed in the few short weeks he had him in his barn. Unless Baffert & WinStar weren't the only ones with some "shady" dealings going on before the race.
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