Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Nah, I didn't play Bravazo, Timmy, so I missed. That's perfectly okay, though, as I only played the race really small and I'm happy that so many of you guys cashed on your bets.

You are the man Shark. Can't thank you enough.

My two biggest horse racing hits ever on the first two legs of the triple crown. I'm ecstatic to say to the least.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

1st - Justify
2nd - Bravazo
3rd - Tenfold
4th - Good Magic

I'm happy to see Bob and Wayne go 1-2 here. I think that long rest will benefit Justify but I'd be shocked to see 1-5 odds in the Belmont. What a gutsy performance tho. No one can say he has not been tested yet. That was a just bleed god war. Too bad we could only see 1/2 the race <Lmaoo>

 

[Sharkey]

You are the man Shark. Can't thank you enough.

My two biggest horse racing hits ever on the first two legs of the triple crown. I'm ecstatic to say to the least.

That's all on you, T. You did the work, and made the decisions that got yourself paid. That's awesome.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm happy to see Bob and Wayne go 1-2 here. I think that long rest will benefit Justify but I'd be shocked to see 1-5 odds in the Belmont. What a gutsy performance tho. No one can say he has not been tested yet. That was a just bleed god war. Too bad we could only see 1/2 the race <Lmaoo>

That was a tough race for him. No doubt. That's the type of effort that, when coupled with a hard effort in the Derby, might require more than just 3 weeks off to recover from. I'm sure I'll be trying to beat him in the Belmont.

 

[letmebangbrah]

1st - Justify
2nd - Bravazo
3rd - Tenfold
4th - Good Magic

Thanks I hit on the exacta small and a little bit on Tenfold and Bravazo coming in top 3. I'm mostly a lurker but managed to read about you guys fading Good Magic and bet accordingly. Thanks gents!

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks I hit on the exacta small and a little bit on Tenfold and Bravazo coming in top 3. I'm mostly a lurker but managed to read about you guys fading Good Magic and bet accordingly. Thanks gents!

Great job man. You still get a nice ROI even if you were playing it small.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

That was a tough race for him. No doubt. That's the type of effort that, when coupled with a hard effort in the Derby, might require more than just 3 weeks off to recover from. I'm sure I'll be trying to beat him in the Belmont.

Indeed. That being said tho, when horses have romped in the Preakness and won the Derby, they have lost in the Belmont (Smarty). And, others that have had close Preakness have romped in the Belmont (Secretariat).

I was originally thinking he had a 50-50 chance of winning the Triple Crown today, but I got to be honest, I give him like a 25% chance now. He is looking progressively more tired with each race and his Beyers are going down. I think maybe he needs a nice rest. Almost no horse can race this much in such a short time. If he pulls it off, it will be the most unbelieveable achievement in TC history IMO, seeing as he did not race as a two year old, started in late February and had to win every race along the way.

In a way, I almost hope he does not complete it so we can see what this horse is capable of with a rest and time to recover. A very interesting note is that he and GM did not breeze in these past two weeks, while Wayne breezed Bravazao and he woefully exceeded expectations. It may be he needs rest but maybe he also needs to get back to training after a short rest, being the type of horse that needs to stay on his game.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 6 at Prairie Meadows - #7 Sweet Tatum 6/1

While you guys all are crushing trifectas in classic G1 races I'm winning cheap claiming races by an inch at a very nice 6/1.

 

[Sharkey]

I also spent a few hours scouring the past performances of at least 40 races at various tracks looking for specific kinds of horses in some spot plays. Did the numbers for about a dozen of those races, and then after doing so, narrowed it down to these selective plays for tomorrow;

Race 6 at Belmont Park - #5 Asphalt Paving 3/1
Race 1 at Emerald Downs - #6 Curious Rumor 4/1
Race 3 at Prairie Meadows - #8 Train Walk 5/1
Race 6 at Prairie Meadows - #7 Sweet Tatum 6/1
Race 4 at Evangeline Downs - #7 Cowboy Don 20/1
Race 8 at Prairie Meadows - #6 Scrutinizer 6/1

If I get the right odds on these horses come post time I'm likely to play them each to win for $20 each.

I'm going to pass on those last two races. Including the Preakness, I bet $90 today and got a $187 return. Almost got another winner in race 3 at Prairie Meadows too when my horse had the lead right up until the last few strides and had to settle for 2nd. I'll call this a good day when I can double up and also see so many of you guys cashing some nice bets on the Preakness.

 

[t6p]

I'm going to pass on those last two races. Including the Preakness, I bet $90 today and got a $187 return. Almost got another winner in race 3 at Prairie Meadows too when my horse had the lead right up until the last few strides and had to settle for 2nd. I'll call this a good day when I can double up and also see so many of you guys cashing some nice bets on the Preakness.

Very nice, Shark. That's some beautiful work, congrats.

 

[Sharkey]

Very nice, Shark. That's some beautiful work, congrats.

Thanks T.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 4 at Evangeline Downs - #7 Cowboy Don 20/1

I didn't bet him because I'm done for the day, but this guy just ran a very nice race finishing 2nd by just over a length to the heavy 1/2 favourite, and many lengths ahead of the 3rd place finisher.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 8 at Prairie Meadows - #6 Scrutinizer 6/1

And then we have this guy here who wins his race that I was planning to bet by open lengths.

Those 6 horses I was planning to bet today had 3 wins and 2 place finishes between them with the other one having no chance after an idiotic ride by the jock.

 

[Sharkey]

Is this a joke?

His plays at the 3:20 mark.

Going with the following:

Justify / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo
Justify / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo

This along with my little Diamond King to win bet. Kind of forcing it here but I'm afraid I'll upset the betting gods if I don't make a play after how well they treated me on the Derby. GL all.

Two guys with the same exact opinion being that Justify was very likely to win the Preakness yesterday.

One guy takes a 2/5 horse and tries to turn him into what is, at best, a 3/5 horse with the ideal result for him, and has to settle for a 1/5 return on his total investment in the end.

Another guy takes that same 2/5 horse and tries to turn him into what is, at best, maybe a 20/1 or 25/1 horse with the ideal result for him, and still gets a nice 8/1 return (or thereabouts) on his total investment in the end.

One is a lesson on how not to play a strong opinion by playing to devalue it and betting a lot to try to win very little. The other is a lesson on the exact opposite by creating a lot of value with that same strong opinion and by betting a little to try to win a lot.

Sorry T. I'm kinda bored right now since I can't find anything to play today. Turning myself into a selective spot player recently does suck at times. But I just wanted to say that I was proud of you, bud. And not just because it came through for you either, although that is awesome. Just the way you tried to maximize the value of your opinion. Great job.

 

[t6p]

Two guys with the same exact opinion being that Justify was very likely to win the Preakness yesterday.

One guy takes a 2/5 horse and tries to turn him into what is, at best, a 3/5 horse with the ideal result for him, and has to settle for a 1/5 return on his total investment in the end.

Another guy takes that same 2/5 horse and tries to turn him into what is, at best, maybe a 20/1 or 25/1 horse with the ideal result for him, and still gets a nice 8/1 return (or thereabouts) on his total investment in the end.

One is a lesson on how not to play a strong opinion by playing to devalue it and betting a lot to try to win very little. The other is a lesson on the exact opposite by creating a lot of value with that same strong opinion and by betting a little to try to win a lot.

Sorry T. I'm kinda bored right now since I can't find anything to play today. Turning myself into a selective spot player recently does suck at times. But I just wanted to say that I was proud of you, bud. And not just because it came through for you either, although that is awesome. Just the way you tried to maximize the value of your opinion. Great job.

Thanks Shark. I’m still a novice for sure but what I do know, I learned from you. You put me in a position to succeed yesterday so you deserve a lot of the credit.

And it’s a good thing bud, because my UFC capping has suddenly fallen off a cliff. I’ve landed on all the wrong underdogs these past 2 cards. I’m going to try to be more selective, at least until I get back on track.

And even though I bet the races smaller than the fights I still ended up nicely in the black for the day.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks Shark. I’m still a novice for sure but what I do know, I learned from you. You put me in a position to succeed yesterday so you deserve a lot of the credit.

And it’s a good thing bud, because my UFC capping has suddenly fallen off a cliff. I’ve landed on all the wrong underdogs these past 2 cards. I’m going to try to be more selective, at least until I get back on track.

And even though I bet the races smaller than the fights I still ended up nicely in the black for the day.

Yeah, I saw that it was a rough night for you, T. Not going to lie, seeing that played a small part in why I wanted to give you a little pat on the back here. But a bit of a rough stretch is only that. It's not sustainable. You know that. You also know that you have an edge every time you bet a UFC event because you know the sport way better and put in way more preparation than the the average person betting into it. You'll be fine, and in fact very likely much better than fine once you get onto one of these hot streaks that you go on.

Assessing or handicapping yourself as a capper and finding what works best for you is a great way to turn things around too. That's what I had to do when it came to the ponies after that terrible streak I went on at the beginning of April. I went back and reviewed a bunch of my bets at the time, and was able to find that I was having success in certain types of races and with certain types of horses even through the rough patches. And vice versa, I was finding that I wasn't having much success at all in certain types of races even when I was on a good streak. I've been keeping what works for me, and discarding what doesn't for the most part (still have some degenerate moments, though) over the last month and it's worked out well. Being more selective with your plays is never a bad thing, and once you find the spots where you really have an edge over the public these last couple of UFC events with quickly become a thing of the past for you.

 

[Sharkey]

Sometimes it's the plays you don't make that you come to regret. A horse I gave a decent amount of thought in playing today just won the 2nd race at Woodbine at 17/1 in a race where two of the short priced horses in it were coming in off six month layoffs with one of those two having a very regressive pattern to it's races. Both of those finished off the board. I had the winner ranked 3rd on my numbers and only a few points out of 2nd, but decided against playing it because it was coming in off a bit of a layoff itself (2 months), figured it get bet down off his 10/1 morning line, and with the favourite looking pretty strong. Oh well.

 

[t6p]

Yeah, I saw that it was a rough night for you, T. Not going to lie, seeing that played a small part in why I wanted to give you a little pat on the back here. But a bit of a rough stretch is only that. It's not sustainable. You know that. You also know that you have an edge every time you bet a UFC event because you know the sport way better and put in way more preparation than the the average person betting into it. You'll be fine, and in fact very likely much better than fine once you get onto one of these hot streaks that you go on.

Assessing or handicapping yourself as a capper and finding what works best for you is a great way to turn things around too. That's what I had to do when it came to the ponies after that terrible streak I went on at the beginning of April. I went back and reviewed a bunch of my bets at the time, and was able to find that I was having success in certain types of races and with certain types of horses even through the rough patches. And vice versa, I was finding that I wasn't having much success at all in certain types of races even when I was on a good streak. I've been keeping what works for me, and discarding what doesn't for the most part (still have some degenerate moments, though) over the last month and it's worked out well. Being more selective with your plays is never a bad thing, and once you find the spots where you really have an edge over the public these last couple of UFC events with quickly become a thing of the past for you.

Great points and excellent advice there Shark. I was having a lot of success hitting underdogs that I was confident in and that led to me forcing plays on dogs where a play wasn’t warranted. Just need to tighten things up and get my confidence back. There’s always room to learn and improve in this game.

 

[Sharkey]

Great points and excellent advice there Shark. I was having a lot of success hitting underdogs that I was confident in and that led to me forcing plays on dogs where a play wasn’t warranted. Just need to tighten things up and get my confidence back. There’s always room to learn and improve in this game.

We also can't be tricked by variance over the short term either, T. These last two UFC events could have simply been randomness rearing it's ugly head and going completely against you. But if it causes you to look inwards as a capper then there's some good to come from it. A gambler's strengths and his weaknesses are always going to show themselves over the long haul.

 

[t6p]

You also have to consider that Good Magic isn't in this race to run 2nd again. He's the one horse in this race besides Justify that you know that the connections are in it to try to win it. Most of these horses who are in this race will have connections that will be tickled pink if they run 2nd, and some will even be ridden with the intentions to run 2nd. Good Magic's people aren't. They're going to try to win it and they'll ask the horse to take on Justify at some point in the race. So even if Good Magic wasn't demoralized by Justify last time out there's a very real chance that Justify repels Good Magic's challenge and causes him to fade again in the stretch thus opening the race up for a longer priced horse to round out the exacta.

I rewatched the race last night and it made me remember this post. Legend.