Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I've just been spot playing outside speed (who are also top 3 on the number) in one turn races at Mahoning Valley for the past week. The next two races (race 5 & 6) at the track are those types of one turn races and feature some strong early speed types that drew outside posts.

 

[Sharkey]

Great. Somebody just hammered the #8 horse here in race 5 at Mahoning Valley. Was 5/1 just a minute and is now 2/1. So much for that idea.

 

[Sharkey]

Mind you, the #9 horse here isn't terrible at 17/1.

 

[Sharkey]

I've just been spot playing outside speed (who are also top 3 on the number) in one turn races at Mahoning Valley for the past week. The next two races (race 5 & 6) at the track are those types of one turn races and feature some strong early speed types that drew outside posts.

The trifecta there was made up of horses who showed early speed in their other races and had drew one of the 4 outside posts in today's race.

 

[Sharkey]

Lost by a nose with that #5 horse at Gulfstream who would've paid 5/1 with a win and have to settle for the place.

 

[Sharkey]

Outside again for me here at Mahoning Valley.

 

[Sharkey]

Wasn't the one I was on, but yet another outside early speed horse wins a one turn race at Mahoning Valley with the #8 getting it done there. The #9 horse finished 3rd.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm going to try the #2 Flameaway to win/place coming up shortly here in the Sam Davis, although I didn't do any numbers for this Derby prep. Hoping he gets the early lead out of the gate, backs the pace down some, and stays on late. Catholic Boy is pretty good, though, so he may be tough to beat. Don't think he's '3/5 good' mind you, so I gotta try a price.

 

[Sharkey]

Flameaway gets the job done at a very nice 10/1.

 

[Sharkey]

Can't bet him since he'll be such a short price, but very, very interested to see how Ax Man does in the San Vincente up next at Santa Anita. He could be using it as a Derby prep of sorts and he looks to have a big future ahead of him. Crushed Lombo by over 10 lengths in his career debut last month, and of course Lombo came back to win the Bob Lewis last weekend.

 

[Sharkey]

Nevermind. Ax Man sucks. Got into an early pace duel, but he should have still ran better than that.

 

[t6p]

@Sharkey

How did you make out today? I was out of town and then busy this past week so I haven’t had chance to dig into any races. Hope you’re killing it bud.

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey

How did you make out today? I was out of town and then busy this past week so I haven’t had chance to dig into any races. Hope you’re killing it bud.

I did okay today, T. Only bet 5 races in total today, and cashed a couple of place bets (race 1 at Mahong Valley and race 6 at Gulfstream) and then that nice winner in Flameaway in the Sam Davis. Right idea, but the wrong horse in the two races I missed on. Haven't been playing much over the past week myself besides mostly Mahoning Valley sprint races, and have been doing pretty good there sticking to outside horses. Got a big longshot home 2nd there earlier in the week by the name of Humorous Chant (I think that was his name) and he paid out a very nice 11/1 to place. That one broke from the outer most post, ran straight to the lead, and almost never stopped. That was the highlight of the past week for me.

By the way, do you want the additions to the equations I came up with last week? I don't know if I'm totally happy with them yet since I haven't been able to test them out as much as I like (maybe 20 races so far).

 

[Sharkey]

Outside again for me here at Mahoning Valley.

I just did some stats going back to the beginning of February, although I could've gone back even further and it would still illustrate the point I'm sure. Basically ever since the track thawed out from that freezing it had at the beginning of the year I've been noticing that outside horses have been doing exceptionally well there.

Just how well? Well, since the beginning of Feb the track has featured 28 one turn sprint races and horses that have drew into one of the three outer most posts have won 21 of those races. 232 horses in total competed in those 28 one turn races, which means 84 of them in total drew one of the three outer most posts. 75% of the winners came from there despite only making up 36% of the fields. In total those 84 horses who drew outside posts have a combined 21-20-15 record. The other 148 horses who didn`t draw an outer post have only a 7-8-13 record. 14 of the 28 exactas in those races came from horses who drew one of the three outer most posts, and 5 of 28 trifectas.

They haven`t been updated yet for today`s races, but Brisnet has outside posts (8+) having an impact value of 2.41 for 5.5F races since the beginning of Feb at Mahoning Valley, whereas for 6F races the impact value is 2.70. With the average impact value being 1.00, basically they`re saying that horses have been winning from out there 2.5 times as often as they should in those one turn sprint races.

 

[t6p]

I did okay today, T. Only bet 5 races in total today, and cashed a couple of place bets (race 1 at Mahong Valley and race 6 at Gulfstream) and then that nice winner in Flameaway in the Sam Davis. Right idea, but the wrong horse in the two races I missed on. Haven't been playing much over the past week myself besides mostly Mahoning Valley sprint races, and have been doing pretty good there sticking to outside horses. Got a big longshot home 2nd there earlier in the week by the name of Humorous Chant (I think that was his name) and he paid out a very nice 11/1 to place. That one broke from the outer most post, ran straight to the lead, and almost never stopped. That was the highlight of the past week for me.

By the way, do you want the additions to the equations I came up with last week? I don't know if I'm totally happy with them yet since I haven't been able to test them out as much as I like (maybe 20 races so far).

Sounds like a winning week to me Shark. Glad to hear it.

That's up to you bud. If you want to wait until you've had a chance to give them a trial run or if you want me to add them and help you with the testing, either way is fine with me.

 

[Sharkey]

Sounds like a winning week to me Shark. Glad to hear it.

That's up to you bud. If you want to wait until you've had a chance to give them a trial run or if you want me to add them and help you with the testing, either way is fine with me.

I'm going to have a slow week at work, T, so I should have plenty of time for testing this out further, although if you have the time your help would certainly be appreciated. Just to warn you, though, the equation is quite a bit bigger than what I sent you before, which in itself had a lot that went into it.

 

[Sharkey]

Top 3 on the numbers in race 8 coming up at Gulfstream about a half hour from now;

#4 Iconic 5/2 - 485.8
#8 Zap Zap Zap 10/1 - 475.7
#1 Big Dollar Bill 7/2 - 472.4


The #5 Hedge Fund is the morning line favourite at 2/1 and he's enetering off a big layoff and could be vulnerable. As could the #7 Meantime who will also take some money (4/1 on the ML) who is also coming in off a significant layoff. If either are fit and ready to run 8.5 furlongs then they may be tough to beat. But it's also worth playing against them just because of the layoff factors.

 

[Sharkey]

Top 3 on the numbers in race 8 coming up at Gulfstream about a half hour from now;

#4 Iconic 5/2 - 485.8
#8 Zap Zap Zap 10/1 - 475.7
#1 Big Dollar Bill 7/2 - 472.4

I'll probably just try Zap Zap Zap to win and place here for $4/$8, and then try two separate $2 exacta boxes with him and these other two horses.

 

[Sharkey]

Can't do much when every other jock in the race allows the favourite to get away with an easy lead through slow fractions. Especially at Gulfstream. Was hoping Meantime would've played that role of putting the pressure on, but he was no where to be found.

 

[Sharkey]

Top 4 on the numbers for the one turn sprint races at Mahoning Valley tomorrow, including post positions in three of them due to those races having coupled entries;

==========

Race 3;

1- 389.0 Needling Neil 10/1 ** (pp 5)
1A- 386.5 Steady Heat 10/1 * (pp 6)
2- 357.4
3- 350.5
4- 407.5 Ten Legions 5/2 *** (pp 3)
5- 341.7
6- 366.1
7- 365.8
8- 429.9 Athletic Temper 3/1 **** (pp 9)
9- 356.4

==========

Race 5;

1- 462.0 Bret's At Caddies 10/1 ** (pp 3)
1A- 451.0 Chaotic Bull 10/1 * (pp 7)
2- 431.5
3- 405.5
4- 427.6
5- 436.2
6- 409.5
7- 473.8 Celestrial Image 7/2 **** (pp 8)
8- 443.5
9- 420.1
10- 469.7 Kat's Good Scout 9/2 *** (pp 11)

==========

Race 6;

1- 352.3
1A- 380.1 Thisonesforudad 6/1 *** (pp 7)
2- 352.7
3- 341.8
4- 337.1
5- 370.9 Cindor Bolt 8/5 * (pp 5)
6- 392.1 My Man Archie 8/1 **** (pp 6)
7- 379.7 Last Prospect 20/1 ** (pp 8)
8- 359.5

==========

Race 8;

1- 325.5
2- 288.5
3- 417.0 Twilight Appeal 9/2 **
4- 362.2
5- 397.0 Slow Dance 8/1 *
6- 382.0
7- 422.0 Above the Crowd 3/1 ***
8- 391.5
9- 439.3 Stephanie's Faith 6/1 ****
10- 383.0

==========