Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    If you have any ideas what could be tweaked or what could be added then by all means, T. This system is obviously still a work in progress since it's so new (couple of weeks old), and still has room for additions. @BluntTrauma21 mentioned a couple of things in private that we were able to work into the equation, so please do the same if you have ideas we can add or tweak.
     
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  2. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Will do Shark. I’m still a ways away from fully understanding everything, but if I have any ideas I’ll let you know.

    I may actually have one question for you, so I may PM you tomorrow or later tonight.
     
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  3. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I messed up on a couple of those turf races on Saturday myself by subtracting early speed when the track bias stats really said I should have been adding them. Live and learn as they say. I have to start making sure that those track stats are the first thing I look at.
     
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  4. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Was feeling ambitious this morning so I ran the numbers on a bunch of races at Mahoning Valley for today:

    Race 1
    #3 Hummed 398.95 (7/2)
    #1 Chaotic Bull 397.85 (2/1)
    #2 Wildwood Heir 385.95 (4/1)

    Race 2
    #8 Mini Bird 378.25 (20/1)
    #1 Lunar Heat 377.95 (3/1)
    #2 Decadent Doc 373.75 (2/1)
    #7 Jumpin Jack Cash 368.15 (8/1)

    Race 4
    #8 Princess Brooke 380.4 (4/1)
    #1A Tia Gego 371.5 (8/5)
    #4 Hopes Angel 363.7 (6/1)

    Race 5
    #4 Big Legacy 414.7 (3/1)
    #3 Major Drama 408.8 (9/2)
    #10 Western Tryst 398.35 (8/1)
    #8 Love Your Humor 397.75 (6/1)

    Race 7
    #7 Heavens Jewel 386.2 (4/1)
    #3 Easy Way Out 371.75 (9/2)
    #12 Grand Edge 366.95 (5/1)

    Race 8
    #10 Anthem 411.8 (4/1)
    #1 Even Echo 411.35 (6/1)
    #8 Kid Twist 406.4 (5/1)
    #7 Father Dennis 403.05 (3/1)
     
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  5. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Race 1 - taking a shot with #2 Wildwood Heir to win/place since odds have shortened on the #1 and #3
     
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  6. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    He didn't come out of the gate well, tried to make a late push, but didn't have enough in the tank. Finished 1-3-4-2. Still, considering the numbers on the #4 put him just behind Wildwood Heir, I'd say that the formula is working nicely.
     
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  7. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Race 2 - playing #8 Mini Bird to w/p/s and a little exacta box with #8 Mini Bird, #1 Lunar Heat
     
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  8. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Lunar Heat goes wire to wire and crushes the field. Hmm, maybe I'm getting too cute with these plays.
     
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  9. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Race 4 - #8, #1 exacta box
     
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  10. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Boom, that's more like it. Only pays about 14/1, but I'll take it. Also, the formula predicted the trifecta in order 8/1/4.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2018
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  11. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Race 5 - #3 Major Drama to win/place and an exacta box #3 Major Drama, #4 Big Legacy
     
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  12. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    No good, but again 3 of our top 4 horses finish in the top 4.
     
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  13. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    The top 3 on the numbers (with those additions added to the equation, so the number will be quite a bit higher than what you guys are accustomed to) for the three Derby prep races for tomorrow.


    G2 Holy Bull (Gulfstream Race 12);

    #1 Enticed (3/1) - 489.5
    #4 Audible (6/1) - 484.5
    #8 Pony Up (8/1) - 482.1
    ----------

    G3 Robert B Lewis (Santa Anita Race 5);

    #5 Shivermetimbers (7/2) - 497.6
    #7 Peace (3/1) - 483.8
    #4 Lombo (5/1) - 472.2
    ----------

    G3 Withers (Aqueduct Race 8);

    #1 Firenze Fire (9/5) - 498.2
    #3 Bal Harbour (6/1) - 493.0
    #2 Marconi (3/1) - 486.8
    ----------
     
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  14. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Might as well try one more stakes race today.


    G2 San Pasquel (Santa Anita Race 8);

    #2 Mubtaahij (7/2) - 526.3
    #1 Pavel (4/1) - 517.2
    #3 Accelerate (4/1) - 515.6
    ----------
     
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  15. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Looks like it's going to be Bal Harbour to win/place in the Withers for me if they're going to let him go off at 7/1.
     
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  16. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    I'm in. GL bud!
     
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  17. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Shivermetimbers for me to win/place in the Bob Lewis. Top horse on the numbers by quite a bit and isn't the favourite.
     
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  18. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Pony Up for me here in the Holy Bull.
     
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  19. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Blue Belt

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    just won the 2nd leg of my pick 3 at tampa i need the 5 or the 8 for race 3 and I win. Im also on my 2nd race at mahoning i need the 9,4 or 3 to still be alive
     
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  20. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    How did you make out?
     

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