Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I love races like this where you can pretty much roll one of those 12 sided D&D dice and come up with a decent shot.
     
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  2. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I'm thinking this for the Pegasus;

    Sharp Azteca to win at 5/1 or higher

    Sharp Azteca, West Coast, Collected exacta box.

    Gun Runner over those 3 in 2nd and then the same 3 in 3rd and 4th along with War Story in supers.
     
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  3. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    What are you thinking here @t6p?
     
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  4. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Sharp Azteca and the exacta box sound good to me bud. I'm thinking maybe I'll do a trifecta box with those 4 instead of the super though.
     
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  5. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    The quality of these horses might literally be a shock to my system after betting so many cheap 5k claimers the past couple months.
     
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  6. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Gun Runner is such a good horse. Best horse in this race obviously if he brings his best and gets the trip. Just unplayable at even money even in exactas for me.
     
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  7. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Going with:
    Sharp Azteca win/place
    Sharp Azteca, West Coast, Collected exacta box
    Gun Runner, Sharp Azteca, West Coast, Collected trifecta box
     
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  8. minowasmullet

    minowasmullet Orange Belt

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    This is pretty much what Ive done after watching you guys talk on it I cant put trifectas on but
     
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  9. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    GL to you and @Sharkey, would be nice to close out the day strong here.
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Most of my bankroll for the day was going on this race regardless of what happened earlier, so yes, let's get something home here.
     
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  11. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I just hope Collected leaves Sharp Azteca alone early. If he doesn't then they both probably lose because they'll be on go. If he does leave him alone then we stand a great chance.
     
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  12. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Yeah, you can't beat that.
     
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  13. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Yeah Shark, nothing we could do there. I was crossing my fingers for the tri with all those horses bunched together for third but no such luck. Oh well, we'll get em next time. Thanks for everything today my friend.
     
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  14. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    The race was all but over for most of our bets as soon as Gun Runner broke out of the gates so well, and got that ideal stalking position outside of Collected into the 1st turn. Collected wanted no part of Gun Runner again once they got eye to eye. That's not a surprise from a herd dynamics standpoint since Collect already fired his best at Gun Runner last time in the Classic and came up short. Sharp Azteca's race was also pretty much over once Collected beat him into the turn.
     
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  15. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    I worked up the numbers for a couple of races at Mahoning Valley later on today. I may make some small bets if I'm able to catch the odds right before the races, but I'd figured I'd post them up if any of you guys are interested:

    Race 6:
    #5 Woolley Allen 407.25 - 8/1
    #3 Rock Nation 398.4 - 3/1
    #4 Intelligent Flash 392.15 - 2/1
    #1 Armed Escort 389.75 - 5/2

    Race 7:
    #2 Colony Classic 443.45 - 7/2
    #5 Eskendulce 436.85 - 9/2
    #6 Say Hey Kid 427.4 - 12/1
    #4 Farleys Mandate 426.7 - 4/1
     
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  16. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Did a little win/place bet on Woolley Allen. He fell all the way to 3/1 and gave up the lead down the stretch, so tiny profit there.
     
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  17. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    #2 Colony Classic to win/place and a little exacta box #2 Colony Classic, #6 Say Hey Kid

    #6 Say Hey Kid to show also now that he's at 25/1
     
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  18. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Say Hey Kid and Colony Classic finish third and fourth respectively, so the show bet cashes. Only ended up at 13/1 though, so pretty much broke even on the race.

    More importantly, the @Sharkey formula continues to put horses on the board. That's it for me for now.
     
  19. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I just watched that race, T, and that's a tough one being only a head apart at the line. Rare to see the horse to the outside give it up late like that to the inside horse on this track too since Mahoning Valley usually plays to an outside flow more than most other tracks.

    Nice job today, though. Especially getting that longshot home 3rd. Nice to see this system is still finding the longshots that can run well. Wished I could have played along with you today too, but I had to get some work done with the weather warming up out here. In fact I might not have any chances to get very many plays in for the next week or two save for the weekends unless I bet and forget in advance. Or I look at tracks that run later in the day like Delta Downs.
     
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  20. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Thanks, Shark. Yea I thought I was going to get that horse home in race 6. Ah well. At this point I’m keeping my plays small, mainly trying to learn how find “value” based on the numbers and figure out what works and what doesn’t.

    I hear ya bud. Sometimes we all have to focus on real life, unfortunately.
     
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