Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Parx Race 10 - #3 Caliparty 20/1

I'm going to play this guy across the board like we did yesterday at Santa Anita since he's a longshot in abig field. Just for $2/$4/$4, though.

@BluntTrauma21 @t6p

Just making sure you guys see this if you want to play it this way too.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@BluntTrauma21 @t6p

Just making sure you guys see this if you want to play it this way too.

In on the same as you. Let's get this 20/1 and then give the big fuck you to the books!

 

[Sharkey]

In on the same as you. Let's get this 20/1 and then give the big fuck you to the books!

Damn rights. Sounds like a plan to me. Let's throw a big fuck you towards this track at the same time because this place has been pissing me off all day.

 

[Sharkey]

Looks like all the people betting this race are just as confused as I was since half the field is between 3/1 and 6/1. It was hard to like anything in this race, although the way this track has been playing all day I'm pretty happy who we landed on. Just go to the front baby and hang on as best you can.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Damn rights. Sounds like a plan to me. Let's throw a big fuck you towards this track at the same time because this place has been pissing me off all day.

seriously looks like a pos track. Also some guy keeps going on about how at Parx the rail can be "dead" at times and not to go on the rail in certain conditions. I'm not sure what that means but obv it's not good.

 

[Sharkey]

seriously looks like a pos track. Also some guy keeps going on about how at Parx the rail can be "dead" at times and not to go on the rail in certain conditions. I'm not sure what that means but obv it's not good.

A dead rail means horses aren't running effectively down near it. Probably due to the dirt being just a touch deeper down there after the maintenance crew ran the tractors over it.

 

[Sharkey]

Up $0.10 on the day I do believe. Hey, "profit is profit" right? Haha. Yeah, fuck this track.

 

[Sharkey]

Think I'm going to take tomorrow off since it's another quiet day and Mahoning Valley was running in slop today. I'll get back to it on Wed with Gulfstream then maybe Tampa Bay as well.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Think I'm going to take tomorrow off since it's another quiet day and Mahoning Valley was running in slop today. I'll get back to it on Wed with Gulfstream then maybe Tampa Bay as well.

Yeah break sounds good. You've put in a ton of work recently, you deserve some time off. Great job, tho, buddy. thanks for all the lessons and plays, btw, appreciate it.

Sharkey Formula right now.

GETTING STRONGER as we speak.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah break sounds good. You've put in a ton of work recently, you deserve some time off. Great job, tho, buddy. thanks for all the lessons and plays, btw, appreciate it.

Sharkey Formula right now.

GETTING STRONGER as we speak.

Cheers bud.

Great posts in that UFC 220 thread by the way. Never letting someone talk you off a pick is pretty much rule #1 in this game. Or any game really.

 

[t6p]

@BluntTrauma21 @t6p

Just making sure you guys see this if you want to play it this way too.

Well by pure dumb luck of missing this and not know that Parx = Philadelphia Park, I managed to have a nice winning day. I feel a little guilty about it actually since you and @BluntTrauma21 are the ones putting in all the work.

Until next time guys, thanks once again for keeping this awesome thread going.

 

[Sharkey]

Well by pure dumb luck of missing this and not know that Parx = Philadelphia Park, I managed to have a nice winning day. I feel a little guilty about it actually since you and @BluntTrauma21 are the ones putting in all the work.

Until next time guys, thanks once again for keeping this awesome thread going.

Cheers T, and congrats. Don't feel the least bit guilty about it either. I'm always happy to see someone have a profitable day on the ponies. Especially you who's been in this thread from the start through all the ups and downs. Besides @BluntTrauma21 and I have many, many big winning days ahead of us in the near future. All three of us will actually. Like Blunt said, we're taking over this game.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@Sharkey @t6p you're making me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. As you said, Shark, me and T been with ya since my betting thread back in the boxing forum. And it's been fun as hell.



We will take over soon with Shark at the helm. The formula is getting STRONGER.

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey @t6p you're making me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. As you said, Shark, me and T been with ya since my betting thread back in the boxing forum. And it's been fun as hell.



We will take over soon with Shark at the helm. The formula is getting STRONGER.

I should have trusted the number more when I did those 4 races today. In Race 7 the top number finished 2nd (I went with the 2nd ranked as he wasn't far behind and figured to be much better odds). The top won race 8, which we were on. In race 10 the top 2 on the number after the scratch finished 1st and 2nd in order. If it was you doing those races I bet we would have had a great day since you'd probably try to be a little less cute than I was. Oh well. It wasn't a losing day, so it wasn't all bad.

You and I started when we bet Commissioner at huge odds in the 2014 Belmont didn't we? Think it was around that time.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I should have trusted the number more when I did those 4 races today. In Race 7 the top number finished 2nd (I went with the 2nd ranked as he wasn't far behind and figured to be much better odds). The top won race 8, which we were on. In race 10 the top 2 on the number after the scratch finished 1st and 2nd in order. If it was you doing those races I bet we would have had a great day since you'd probably try to be a little less cute than I was. Oh well. It wasn't a losing day, so it wasn't all bad.

You and I started when we bet Commissioner at huge odds in the 2014 Belmont didn't we? Think it was around that time.

The numbers are panning out well for us, for sure. You salvaged my shit start to the day, tho so I'm happy as is. The 20/1 horse ran very well in Race 10 tho. What did you see that made you go with him/her? If it's something secret you don't have to divulge publicly, obv.

 

[Sharkey]

The numbers are panning out well for us, for sure. You salvaged my shit start to the day, tho so I'm happy as is. The 20/1 horse ran very well in Race 10 tho. What did you see that made you go with him/her? If it's something secret you don't have to divulge publicly, obv.

Basically a whole lot of crappy horses running in the race. Haha. There were only a few that even reached the 400 mark, and only one that had any decent form out of them. Had that 20/1 horse ranked 4th, so I figured it was a good time to try a price like that. Had the highest early speed rating going in, which figured to play well on this track. Had a good record at this track finishing top 3 55% of the time. Great record at the distance. 3rd start of his form cycle. Bullet workout. High percentage jockey, etc., etc. He had a few things going for him in a race that I thought was going to be ripe for an upsetter, as well as his share of negatives too.

Unfortunately he didn't show much early speed today, but did make a run late and looked like he may hit the board at least. Maybe there was a dead rail there today, though, which is what he was on the whole way around the track.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Basically a whole lot of crappy horses running in the race. Haha. There were only a few that even reached the 400 mark, and only one that had any decent form out of them. Had that 20/1 horse ranked 4th, so I figured it was a good time to try a price like that. Had the highest early speed rating going in, which figured to play well on this track. Had a good record at this track finishing top 3 55% of the time. Great record at the distance. 3rd start of his form cycle. Bullet workout. High percentage jockey, etc., etc. He had a few things going for him in a race that I thought was going to be ripe for an upsetter, as well as his share of negatives too.

Unfortunately he didn't show much early speed today, but did make a run late and looked like he may hit the board at least. Maybe there was a dead rail there today, though, which is what he was on the whole way around the track.

thanks, that's the type of feedback that's gonna help me cap better, as you always give, great advice. Was wondering b/c he really did run well for a longshot and I was wondering what you're thinking was to find him. Next to the workouts, the B stands for Breezing, and H for handily.

The bullet point is bullet obv which means it's the fastest workout at the distance for the day. I looked this up the other day, but Breezing is a lighter run than a Handily or whatever, H being they push the horse a bit more, correct? Also does that indicate a horse's condition good or bad?

I need to remember that early speed is very important for dirt. I obv use it in the math, but I never quite realized how good it is to have early speed on dirt.

 

[Sharkey]

thanks, that's the type of feedback that's gonna help me cap better, as you always give, great advice. Was wondering b/c he really did run well for a longshot and I was wondering what you're thinking was to find him. Next to the workouts, the B stands for Breezing, and H for handily.

The bullet point is bullet obv which means it's the fastest workout at the distance for the day. I looked this up the other day, but Breezing is a lighter run than a Handily or whatever, H being they push the horse a bit more, correct? Also does that indicate a horse's condition good or bad?

I need to remember that early speed is very important for dirt. I obv use it in the math, but I never quite realized how good it is to have early speed on dirt.

You're correct, Blunt. Breezing is basically just the horse doing it all on his own, whereas handily means he's getting urged by the jock. I don't put too much stalk in those two things reallt since the result is the same for the most part, although a horse running a fast workout time on his own would be better of course.

I doubled the early speed points yesterday in that race at Santa Anita just because that track favours early speed types more than almost any other, and I wanted that indicated in the numbers we had. So don't be afraid to make a temporary tweak like that yourself if the track bias stats on the bottom of the PP's indicates that early speed is even more important than it usually is and there's enough of a sample size that tells you so. Say, for an example, E and E/P types are combining to win 70% or more of the races at that distance at the track then maybe you'd want to give even more of a boost to the early speed types. Or if E types are winning close to 35-40% or something like that. Use your own discretion.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

You're correct, Blunt. Breezing is basically just the horse doing it all on his own, whereas handily means he's getting urged by the jock. I don't put too much stalk in those two things reallt since the result is the same for the most part, although a horse running a fast workout time on his own would be better of course.

I doubled the early speed points yesterday in that race at Santa Anita just because that track favours early speed types more than almost any other, and I wanted that indicated in the numbers we had. So don't be afraid to make a temporary tweak like that yourself if the track bias stats on the bottom of the PP's indicates that early speed is even more important than it usually is and there's enough of a sample size that tells you so. Say, for an example, E and E/P types are combining to win 70% or more of the races at that distance at the track then maybe you'd want to give even more of a boost to the early speed types. Or if E types are winning close to 35-40% or something like that. Use your own discretion.

Makes sense, I have a bit of trouble deciphering some of the track bias stuff sometimes. Like S they say is for speed but I always figured that was for closers. Then the + and ++ gets me sometimes as well. Obv seems to be ++ favorable to whoever it's under, i.e. below the E there's ++, so that must mean that the track is very favorable to speed types.

The thing that gets me is that S should be for closers, E being early speed horses who get out front quick and try to stay out front. E/P's stay close to the lead but also like to sit behind the E types, P's are middle of the pack guys who stay a bit further back and try to run down the leaders down teh stretch, and S always meant a pure closer. Am I an idiot and been off this whole time on this, or does the S stand for different things depending on the track bias compared to the title?

Sorry for this rant just feel like a moron for being confused even though I've been studying dozens of pp's in the time you've showed me and I'm only getting to this now.

 

[Sharkey]

Makes sense, I have a bit of trouble deciphering some of the track bias stuff sometimes. Like S they say is for speed but I always figured that was for closers. Then the + and ++ gets me sometimes as well. Obv seems to be ++ favorable to whoever it's under, i.e. below the E there's ++, so that must mean that the track is very favorable to speed types.

The thing that gets me is that S should be for closers, E being early speed horses who get out front quick and try to stay out front. E/P's stay close to the lead but also like to sit behind the E types, P's are middle of the pack guys who stay a bit further back and try to run down the leaders down teh stretch, and S always meant a pure closer. Am I an idiot and been off this whole time on this, or does the S stand for different things depending on the track bias compared to the title?

Sorry for this rant just feel like a moron for being confused even though I've been studying dozens of pp's in the time you've showed me and I'm only getting to this now.

S does stand for closers, bud. S = sustained late runners. The way they have that Early Speed and Late Speed could be confusing, though, since they put the S right under the Speed column of the Late Speed. And your correct. A double ++ for an E type tells you that the track has been playing very well for early speed types. You can actually use that as a quick guideline if you want and just double up on the value of early speed number in the equation if you see a double ++ under one of them. Instead of using your discretion you can use that as your guide if you want to make a temporary tweak on a race or track. That would work.