Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I'm going to look at the races at Mahoning Valley tomorrow afterall if you guys want to try a few races again. Just the inner degenerate in me coming out I guess. I'm going to be quite picky since I obviously don't know what the track conditions are going to be like tomorrow. I'm hoping it's wet there again, though, like it was today. If it is a muddy track again then we're crushing it. Yep.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I'm going to look at the races at Mahoning Valley tomorrow afterall if you guys want to try a few races again. Just the inner degenerate in me coming out I guess. I'm going to be quite picky since I obviously don't know what the track conditions are going to be like tomorrow. I'm hoping it's wet there again, though, like it was today. If it is a muddy track again then we're crushing it. Yep.

Thank you sir, very patient with my moronic questions as always, haha. Makes more sense now. I need to pay attention more to the track bias, been so used to breaking down the pps that I tend to overlook the bottom with notes that could possibly give me much more useful info on top of what I've already gleaned from the horses stats.

The track as I so unfortunately found out today, can play a big factor. I'm gonna look up a lot of the main tracks and see which run faster or slower so I can get a hold of them better, too. As you mentioned SA runs fast so I will keep that in mind. Assuming there's some popular tracks that are slow and many in between so will make a point to study up on them to get a better read on possible advantages and disadvantages for horses.

Btw I just looked up Mahoning Valley, and I saw that the track is in Youngstown, OH. So checked the weather for Youngstown and it says there is gonna be a good chance of some showers, at least on and off throughout the day, tom.

High is 45f and wind gonna be 17 or 18mph there throughout the whole afternoon. Don't know if the temp and/or wind conditions are too big of a deal, warm enough so it's not sleet or anything but not sure that wind plays a huge factor. Anyway hope that helps if you decide to look into those.

 

[Sharkey]

Thank you sir, very patient with my moronic questions as always, haha. Makes more sense now. I need to pay attention more to the track bias, been so used to breaking down the pps that I tend to overlook the bottom with notes that could possibly give me much more useful info on top of what I've already gleaned from the horses stats.

The track as I so unfortunately found out today, can play a big factor. I'm gonna look up a lot of the main tracks and see which run faster or slower so I can get a hold of them better, too. As you mentioned SA runs fast so I will keep that in mind. Assuming there's some popular tracks that are slow and many in between so will make a point to study up on them to get a better read on possible advantages and disadvantages for horses.

Btw I just looked up Mahoning Valley, and I saw that the track is in Youngstown, OH. So checked the weather for Youngstown and it says there is gonna be a good chance of some showers, at least on and off throughout the day, tom.

High is 45f and wind gonna be 17 or 18mph there throughout the whole afternoon. Don't know if the temp and/or wind conditions are too big of a deal, warm enough so it's not sleet or anything but not sure that wind plays a huge factor. Anyway hope that helps if you decide to look into those.

That's an awesome bit of info on the weather forecast. Thanks so much for mentioning it. Really anything but the sun coming out is to our benefit there. We're crushing that place tomorrow, and it's going to feel damn good too.

Yeah, we were hurt in a pretty big way on a few races today, and only benefited on the one. The closer you picked in race 5 I think it was had no chance with a heavy speed bias going on, along with him having to close into a slow pace and do so way wide on the turn. He actually ran quite well considering he only ended up about a length out of 3rd at the end. It was a good pick for sure. Just couldn't overcome circumstances being against him.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

That's an awesome bit of info on the weather forecast. Thanks so much for mentioning it. Really anything but the sun coming out is to our benefit there. We're crushing that place tomorrow, and it's going to feel damn good too.

Yeah, we were hurt in a pretty big way on a few races today, and only benefited on the one. The closer you picked in race 5 I think it was had no chance with a heavy speed bias going on, along with him having to close into a slow pace and do so way wide on the turn. He actually ran quite well considering he only ended up about a length out of 3rd at the end. It was a good pick for sure. Just couldn't overcome circumstances being against him.

I'm gonna make note to double up early speed figures from now on if they have ++ track bias, maybe do an increase by 50% if it's a + for early speed types? Sound good to you?

Glad I could help out a bit. One of my favorite fighters is Kelly Pavlik, he's from Youngstown. And sorry, Kelly, but we're about to fuck your hometown UP tomorrow. Haha, leave Mahoning Valley downtrodden like Youngstown's economy. I can say that b/c I'm from a rustbelt town myself.

Probably won't be available for the morning, but I do have the afternoon free to maybe watch some of the races. Might look at Turf Paradise tonight and make a couple 1/2 dollar win/place bets just to get more capping under my belt, this itch to cap the ponies is still here and I'm getting even more into it, despite my shit picks today.

I don't want to do too much but I'm bored so looking into a couple races might be fun, play them super small and see how I do.

Edit: My bad Shark, one last question, I promise this time....I think. Is a horse on that drug Bute a negative for them? From what I've read about it, it seems to be for horses with inflammation issues so I'd assume if they need Bute that's a con for them. But wanted to bounce this off you bc I didn't see any clear answers other than ppl arguing whether it should be legal or not and how bad it can be for certain horses. Esp since this one pp has a horse with frontwraps AND is on Bute. Seems like an injury but they've had it for several races now, by the looks of it so idk.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm gonna make note to double up early speed figures from now on if they have ++ track bias, maybe do an increase by 50% if it's a + for early speed types? Sound good to you?

Glad I could help out a bit. One of my favorite fighters is Kelly Pavlik, he's from Youngstown. And sorry, Kelly, but we're about to fuck your hometown UP tomorrow. Haha, leave Mahoning Valley downtrodden like Youngstown's economy. I can say that b/c I'm from a rustbelt town myself.

Probably won't be available for the morning, but I do have the afternoon free to maybe watch some of the races. Might look at Turf Paradise tonight and make a couple 1/2 dollar win/place bets just to get more capping under my belt, this itch to cap the ponies is still here and I'm getting even more into it, despite my shit picks today.

I don't want to do too much but I'm bored so looking into a couple races might be fun, play them super small and see how I do.

Edit: My bad Shark, one last question, I promise this time....I think. Is a horse on that drug Bute a negative for them? From what I've read about it, it seems to be for horses with inflammation issues so I'd assume if they need Bute that's a con for them. But wanted to bounce this off you bc I didn't see any clear answers other than ppl arguing whether it should be legal or not and how bad it can be for certain horses. Esp since this one pp has a horse with frontwraps AND is on Bute. Seems like an injury but they've had it for several races now, by the looks of it so idk.

Yeah, if a horse needs Bute then that's a bad sign, bud. You're assuming correct since they wouldn't be prescribed it unless there was an issue there that needed to be addressed, but wasn't serious enough to keep it off the track. We want healthy horses to put our money on obviously.

I was going to get to this eventually, but if you're thinking about playing Turf Paradise I might as well mention this now. But be very careful of any horses who haven't been on the track for over a month (either a race or workout), have had a poor finish in their last race, and are 'competing' at class level above their last race. Horses like that are almost always not in the race to win it. They're in there just for a public workout. It's part of that whole "trainer's intent" thing. It happens quite often at some of the lower level tracks, but it seems to happen more frequently at a place like Turf Paradise. Just be aware of that and ask yourself if this horse is really in it to win it. Unfortunately not every horse is in the race to compete at some of these lower level tracks. You're probably not going to land on a horse like that anyways if you're using our system. But just in case. Otherwise, yeah, have a go of it if you want. Capping extra races is only going to help you of course. And don't be shy about sharing either if you have some plays.

 

[Sharkey]

You going to be up for a while yet @BluntTrauma21? If so, I'll try to get some Mahoning Valley picks for you tonight so you can get them in. I'm only halfway done the card so far, though, as I'm really trying to zero in on the right horse for each race by looking over every detail I can after doing the numbers. Nothing is getting by me, nope. I'm probably even going to watch some videos as well. I'm going after that place quite a bit heavier than I usually do tomorrow because that track owes me a few and we're going to crush it.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

You going to be up for a while yet @BluntTrauma21? If so, I'll try to get some Mahoning Valley picks for you tonight so you can get them in. I'm only halfway done the card so far, though, as I'm really trying to zero in on the right horse for each race by looking over every detail I can after doing the numbers. Nothing is getting by me, nope. I'm probably even going to watch some videos as well. I'm going after that place quite a bit heavier than I usually do tomorrow because that track owes me a few and we're going to crush it.

sure I'll be good for another couple hrs or so, thanks for squeezing em in if you can. No hurry tho, if you can't get to them then you and T can make the killing, I'll still be rooting for you guys.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Yeah, if a horse needs Bute then that's a bad sign, bud. You're assuming correct since they wouldn't be prescribed it unless there was an issue there that needed to be addressed, but wasn't serious enough to keep it off the track. We want healthy horses to put our money on obviously.

I was going to get to this eventually, but if you're thinking about playing Turf Paradise I might as well mention this now. But be very careful of any horses who haven't been on the track for over a month (either a race or workout), have had a poor finish in their last race, and are 'competing' at class level above their last race. Horses like that are almost always not in the race to win it. They're in there just for a public workout. It's part of that whole "trainer's intent" thing. It happens quite often at some of the lower level tracks, but it seems to happen more frequently at a place like Turf Paradise. Just be aware of that and ask yourself if this horse is really in it to win it. Unfortunately not every horse is in the race to compete at some of these lower level tracks. You're probably not going to land on a horse like that anyways if you're using our system. But just in case. Otherwise, yeah, have a go of it if you want. Capping extra races is only going to help you of course. And don't be shy about sharing either if you have some plays.

I actually am looking at just a few races at Sunland atm, b/c there's less of them so maybe I can get them done quicker. Thanks for the heads up on Turf Paradise, though, that's very interesting. Didn't realize certain tracks were prone to those types of things where they're not really trying to win with their horse all the time. Good to know tho, that's a curveball I wasn't really thinking about. Glad I didn't go with it yet. might just stay away now. Hopefully Sunland isn't the same but I'll look out for similar trends. GL buddy!

 

[Sharkey]

sure I'll be good for another couple hrs or so, thanks for squeezing em in if you can. No hurry tho, if you can't get to them then you and T can make the killing, I'll still be rooting for you guys.

We're not leaving you out of the day we're going to have, Blunt. Come one now. We're a team here. Besides I've got 4 of 6 done so far. All at Mahoning Valley of course.


Race 3 - #4 Ralla's Rally 4/1

Race 5 - #8 Gavin Streetsense 4/1

Race 8 - #4 My Sweet Reward 4/1

Race 9 - #12 Comanche Ruler 9/2


Still have to make a decision or two on races 2 and 4 yet. I'll have those within an hour or so after I watch some video. I still have 3 horses in each race in the running, so if I can't narrow it down I may just box them up in exactas.

 

[Sharkey]

I actually am looking at just a few races at Sunland atm, b/c there's less of them so maybe I can get them done quicker. Thanks for the heads up on Turf Paradise, though, that's very interesting. Didn't realize certain tracks were prone to those types of things where they're not really trying to win with their horse all the time. Good to know tho, that's a curveball I wasn't really thinking about. Glad I didn't go with it yet. might just stay away now. Hopefully Sunland isn't the same but I'll look out for similar trends. GL buddy!

Well, I wasn't expecting you to start dipping your toes into claiming races and the like so quickly, so, you know. Haha. That's great you are. I would have passed that along to you eventually, though, as it's one of the advanced things you can look for at that level of racing.

 

[Sharkey]

What I have for tomorrow at Mahoning Valley, although this is entirely based on there being a wet track again;


Race 2 - #5 Beachtown Benny 5/2

Race 3 - #4 Ralla's Rally 4/1

Race 4 - #10 Disco Outlaw 6/1

Race 5 - #8 Gavin Streetsense 4/1

Race 8 - #4 My Sweet Reward 4/1

Race 9 - #12 Comanche Ruler 9/2


@BluntTrauma21 @t6p

What do you think gentlemen? Should we go for the sweep tomorrow? Yeah, let's do that.

 

[Sharkey]

Oh, hell yeah.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Well, I wasn't expecting you to start dipping your toes into claiming races and the like so quickly, so, you know. Haha. That's great you are. I would have passed that along to you eventually, though, as it's one of the advanced things you can look for at that level of racing.

shit see this is why I know I'm getting ahead of myself. I knew claiming races had more to them than the others, but I always just do the numbers and fail to take in other details. I get addicted to crunching the numbers and forget about the levels and whatnot. Don't think I'm gonna make any plays on this one, happy to just do the math to get more practice in. Thank you for the plays btw, you the man Shark. i feel good about tomorrow!

 

[Sharkey]

shit see this is why I know I'm getting ahead of myself. I knew claiming races had more to them than the others, but I always just do the numbers and fail to take in other details. I get addicted to crunching the numbers and forget about the levels and whatnot. Don't think I'm gonna make any plays on this one, happy to just do the math to get more practice in. Thank you for the plays btw, you the man Shark. i feel good about tomorrow!

Well, if you're doing the work I don't see why you wouldn't take a small stab at least since you put the time in. You're going to find winners with this system we have anyways, so throw a buck or two down on them if you can. Especially if you land on a nice longshot. Or at least do so when you land on a longshot type.

Claiming races can be a little more complicated just because we have to read trainer intent more than in other races. Plus people who bet claiming races with regularity are a sharp group as a whole. And you're one of them now. But there are signs in the PP's what the trainer's intention is, and I gave you one of them. Looking at the jockeys for the horse is a big one too just because high percentage jockeys usually have choices of what to ride and aren't aren't going to sit on a horse whose only intention is to get a workout during the race. That's the job of the low percentage jocks. Things like that.

 

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21

I'm always here to help you out too if you have any questions in general or even on a particular race. You know that. Plus, you're a natural at this who, believe it or not, is already way, way ahead of tons of people who have much more experience at this than you. That's the truth, bud. You've impressed the absolute hell out of me with how quickly you've picked everything up. The first race you did you blew me away with how you looked at it and how you zeroed in on the right horses.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@BluntTrauma21

I'm always here to help you out too if you have any questions in general or even on a particular race. You know that. Plus, you're a natural at this who, believe it or not, is already way, way ahead of tons of people who have much more experience at this than you. That's the truth, bud. You've impressed the absolute hell out of me with how quickly you've picked everything up. The first race you did you blew me away with how you looked at it and how you zeroed in on the right horses.

Appreciate it man, it does really mean a lot. I think I'm just gonna call it a night here, I only did one race so far and my main book doesn't even have sunland up yet. The claiming stuff is gonna take me some time to figure out and I will definitely take you up asking you many more questions, haha. I really want to get good at this stuff but I also know that I have a ton to learn yet and it's better to be safe than sorry if I think I'm in over my head.

I followed your bets for Mahoning, I think I'm gonna stop it there for now. It was fun breaking Sunland down for the little I did, tho, but the fact I wasn't aware of how important the claiming aspect of races was and the fact I don't have a line tells me I should probably take it easy for now and wait till I have more experience under my belt. Thanks for everything my friend. GL to us tomorrow, if I'm not here for some of the races I'll still be ready to celebrate our undefeated day after the fact.

The Formula is getting STRONGER by the day, Shark! We're about to take this shit over.

 

[Sharkey]

Appreciate it man, it does really mean a lot. I think I'm just gonna call it a night here, I only did one race so far and my main book doesn't even have sunland up yet. The claiming stuff is gonna take me some time to figure out and I will definitely take you up asking you many more questions, haha. I really want to get good at this stuff but I also know that I have a ton to learn yet and it's better to be safe than sorry if I think I'm in over my head.

I followed your bets for Mahoning, I think I'm gonna stop it there for now. It was fun breaking Sunland down for the little I did, tho, but the fact I wasn't aware of how important the claiming aspect of races was and the fact I don't have a line tells me I should probably take it easy for now and wait till I have more experience under my belt. Thanks for everything my friend. GL to us tomorrow, if I'm not here for some of the races I'll still be ready to celebrate our undefeated day after the fact.

The Formula is getting STRONGER by the day, Shark! We're about to take this shit over.

Cheers man. But hey, before you head off for bed can I at least get that Sunland pick off you? Haha.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Cheers man. But hey, before you head off for bed can I at least get that Sunland pick off you? Haha.

I actually found it on one of my books, I bet it small to win/place/show even tho it's a small field. I just want to hit one bet in the last two days, haha. It's Race 2 at Sunland, 5 horse Another Dandy 4/1 morning line, iirc. There were a couple others I liked but track likes the e/p types and she's got a bit of speed on a dry track, high % jockey and trainer when it comes to claiming races. Good rating 2nd highest to the 2 horse Contradiction, went with the 5 tho, b/c better workout times, has raced more recently, better price, etc. Hope it hits but went small on it b/c yesterday sucked and I know I'm still a rookie who's probably missing some stuff. Not holding my breath but that's what I got. GL my friend!

 

[Sharkey]

I actually found it on one of my books, I bet it small to win/place/show even tho it's a small field. I just want to hit one bet in the last two days, haha. It's Race 2 at Sunland, 5 horse Another Dandy 4/1 morning line, iirc. There were a couple others I liked but track likes the e/p types and she's got a bit of speed on a dry track, high % jockey and trainer when it comes to claiming races. Good rating 2nd highest to the 2 horse Contradiction, went with the 5 tho, b/c better workout times, has raced more recently, better price, etc. Hope it hits but went small on it b/c yesterday sucked and I know I'm still a rookie who's probably missing some stuff. Not holding my breath but that's what I got. GL my friend!

Awesome, Blunt, and I'm definitely going to be in on it. Well, besides the show that is. Thanks for the pick.

 

[t6p]

We're not leaving you out of the day we're going to have, Blunt. Come one now. We're a team here.

To be fair you and @BluntTrauma21 are like Shaq and Kobe and I'm like Mark Madsen, that guy who sits on the end of the bench and doesn't really do anything but gets really excited when we win. I'm sleeping and you guys are grinding away getting ready for today. Seriously, thanks guys. I'll be tailing everything as usual.