Because my inner degenerate may be coming out, I decided to crunch some numbers for DRF's "race of the day", which is race 8 tomorrow at Aqueduct. This is what I came up with;
#4 Church Social +6.2 (3/1 morning line odds)
#10 Bareeqa +3.4 (8/1)
#7 Warranty +2.2 (8/1)
#9 Miss Aja Brown +1.2 (15/1)
#1A Seafire +0.8 (8/1 coupled)
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#6 Speighgal -1.2 (4/1)
#8 Wake Island -2.1 (7/2)
#5 Conquest Tizfire -2.2 (6/1)
#1 Miko -2.8 (8/1 coupled)
#3 First Charmer -5.1 (20/1)
According to these the boys at DRF are on the two right horses in this one with the most likely winner and the best value;
The #4 Church Social is the co-fastest horse in this race based off Brisnet speed ratings. She has the highest last out Brisnet rating. Best Brisnet rating at the distance this race will be ran at. She's coming into this race with my E2 lung opener angle in her favour having ran an E2 of 94 her last race compared to E2's of 56, 64, and 58 in her previous 3 races. I like that E2 increase happened in her first start off the bench as well. She's had the race flow against in each of her last 4 races as well with a slow pace (or crawling pace) in each of them, which hurt her as a closer, but she was still able to make a big run in each of them to finish 2nd or 3rd about a length back in all. Those were in 85k and 90k races too, so she gets a drop in class here running for 67k. She should also finally get some kind of pace to run at here with the stretch out sprinter in the #3, as well as the #5, #8, and #9 also showing themselves to be early speed too. She drew an inside post so she should be able to get over to the rail and save all the ground she wants. Lots to like here with this one save for potentially the price. These morning line odds on races like this are sometimes way, way off what they actually go off at. But if she is 3/1 tomorrow I can see myself playing her. If she goes off too short then the #10 and #7 can be the backup options.
