Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

I flew down for derby day it was awesome. Had a big win on Aces High but lost my phone,jacket and sunglasses during the celebrations after,so with that and my abysmal MC I'm about even for the carnival
Tomorrow is a big day to isn't it?
 
Because my inner degenerate may be coming out, I decided to crunch some numbers for DRF's "race of the day", which is race 8 tomorrow at Aqueduct. This is what I came up with;

#4 Church Social +6.2 (3/1 morning line odds)
#10 Bareeqa +3.4 (8/1)
#7 Warranty +2.2 (8/1)
#9 Miss Aja Brown +1.2 (15/1)
#1A Seafire +0.8 (8/1 coupled)
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#6 Speighgal -1.2 (4/1)
#8 Wake Island -2.1 (7/2)
#5 Conquest Tizfire -2.2 (6/1)
#1 Miko -2.8 (8/1 coupled)
#3 First Charmer -5.1 (20/1)


According to these the boys at DRF are on the two right horses in this one with the most likely winner and the best value;




The #4 Church Social is the co-fastest horse in this race based off Brisnet speed ratings. She has the highest last out Brisnet rating. Best Brisnet rating at the distance this race will be ran at. She's coming into this race with my E2 lung opener angle in her favour having ran an E2 of 94 her last race compared to E2's of 56, 64, and 58 in her previous 3 races. I like that E2 increase happened in her first start off the bench as well. She's had the race flow against in each of her last 4 races as well with a slow pace (or crawling pace) in each of them, which hurt her as a closer, but she was still able to make a big run in each of them to finish 2nd or 3rd about a length back in all. Those were in 85k and 90k races too, so she gets a drop in class here running for 67k. She should also finally get some kind of pace to run at here with the stretch out sprinter in the #3, as well as the #5, #8, and #9 also showing themselves to be early speed too. She drew an inside post so she should be able to get over to the rail and save all the ground she wants. Lots to like here with this one save for potentially the price. These morning line odds on races like this are sometimes way, way off what they actually go off at. But if she is 3/1 tomorrow I can see myself playing her. If she goes off too short then the #10 and #7 can be the backup options.


So much for that idea;

 
Thinking I may try a couple of the dirt races at Aqueduct today depending on what kind of price I can get as they near post time.


Race 7; Will only be looking at the prices I can get on #6 Call Me a Star +3.9 (6/1 morning line...looks like may be lone speed), #5 Bourbon Empire +5.7 (3/1), #8 Storm Prophet +4.4 (3/1), and #7 Cody's Notes +1.4 (12/1). Nothing else is interesting to me.

Race 8; Will only be looking at the prices I can get on #4 Flora Dora +5.3 (8/1), #7 Divine Miss Grey +5.1 (4/1), and #2 Jamyson 'n Ginger +6.0 (5/2). These three look like the clear standouts on number power, so the option to box the exacta is there too.
 
Depending what kind of price I get come post time I may take a shot in race 6 at Aqueduct as well. #2 Astounding looks best (+5.2), but the #6 Patriot Drive (+2.5) is an option too if looking to play the lone speed angle.
 
Aqueduct featured a dead rail yesterday according to Andy Serling, and judging by the first two dirt races today it's the same thing. The two that rode the rail all around that last race went nowhere in the stretch. Good to know.
 
$10 to win and $15 to place on #6 Patriot Drive in race 6 at Aqueduct.
 
Yeah, that's just great. I bet him when he was at 5/1 and now he's getting bet late to 3/1.
 
Astounding won that race for fun. My horse didn't run much at all finishing ahead of just one other horse.
 
$20 to win on #5 Bourbon Empire in race 7 at Aqueduct
 
$10 to win and $15 to place on the #7 Divine Miss Grey in race 8 at Aqueduct
 
Not a terrible place payout considering the heavy favourite won, I guess. Still a bad day overall.
 
$10 straight exacta with #3 over #2 in race 8 at Churchill
 
$10 on #3 Camp Creek to win and $10 on #1 Our Track in race 9 at Churchill
 
I think that brings me back to about even on the day, so it's a good time to quit.
 
No, I guess I'm not quite even afterall. Missing the exacta by less than a length with that longshot hurt the most.
 
Some of the races I'm looking at today and the top 4 horses in each of them based on my numbers.


Race 6 at Laurel Park (City of Laurel Stakes);

#2 El Areeb +4.4 (2/1 morning line)
#6 Honor the Fleet +3.6 (8/1)
#1 Tale of Silence +3.5 (3/1)
#4 No Dozing +3.4 (5/2)

Considering the top 4 are all tightly bunched on number power I'll just end up taking the best odds come post time, which may be the #6 based on the morning line odds.
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Race 7 at Laurel Park (Safely Kept Stakes);

#4 Dawn the Destroyer +5.8 (6/1)
#11 Shimmering Aspen +2.7 (3/1)
#13 Your Love +2.4 (5/2)
#10 Ms Locus Point +2.3 (8/1)

The #4 is the obvious option if near the 6/1 morning line odds, although my 5th ranked horse, Berned at +1.6, is also an option if better than her 12/1 morning line odds.
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Race 7 at Aqueduct;

#1 For Greater Glory +3.5 (20/1)
#5 Slim Shadey +3.3 (8/1)
#4 Aquaphobia +2.0 (5/1)
#7 Toughest Ombre +1.6 (12/1)

This looks like a wide open race to me with 7 horses in the field scoring a +1.0 or better, so again I'll just be looking for a price. 20/1 looks like great value on the #1 if I can get it. But who knows how the public will bet this one.
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Race 8 at Aqueduct (G3 Red Smith Stakes);

#5 Oscar Nominated +5.2 (8/1)
#9 Hunter O'Reilly +4.8 (4/1)
#2 Money Multiplier +4.1 (5/2)
#12 Messi +1.6 (10/1)

Money Multiplier will be the favourite come post time and maybe the clear favourite at that, so I'll just take the better price on the other top two unless Messi drifts up a lot from his 10/1 morning line.
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Race 9 at Laurel Park (Richard Small Stakes);

#5 Watershed +7.3 (9/2)
#9 Afleet Willy +4.0 (9/2)
#4 Page McKenney +3.1 (7/2)
#11 Discreet Lover +2.1 (15/1)

The #4 will be bet heavily and will likely end up about half his morning line odds I'm guessing (2/1 or thereabouts), so the two ahead of him in those rankings will have value I think, as will the one behind him. Preference obviously being the #5 since he's tops by a pretty fair amount here.
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Race 10 at Churchill Downs (G3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes);

#6 Mr. Misunderstood +3.9 (4/5)
#4 Parlor +3.2 (6/1)
#8 Giant Payday +1.8 (5/1)
#3 Mr Cub +1.7 (6/1)

The #6 is likely to be odds-on, so I'm going to try to beat him with the #4. Or if that one goes off too short, both the #8 and #3 should be options as well.
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Wish me luck.
 
Let's see here, I played all 13 BC races last weekend and then a few non-BC races as well. I played the Melbourne Cup for the first time. I played about 5 races on Thursday then a few more yesterday from Aqueduct (did okay...got back the tiny bit I lost on Thursday). Today I plan on playing at least 6 races and have some numbers for a few more if the urge comes over me. Holy crap, I'm going to be well over 30 races played in the last week it looks like. I've never been close to that amount before in a week I don't think. That's like a month's worth for me even at my most active. Over the last few years that's more like a few months worth of plays for me. This isn't going to end well is it? Ugh.
 
Ah, that was tough to watch. I tune into the NYRA stream from Aqueduct and a few seconds later I'm watching a horse break down and his rider getting thrown head first to the ground. The horse may have also stepped on him too. Twitter is saying he got stretchered away and was motionless the whole time.
 
Race 5 at Aqueduct;

$10 to win on the #9 Blame the Thief just because the 3/5 price on this favourite seems pretty ridiculous, and the #9's current odds of 9/1 seem to be value.
 
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