General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - March, 2018

[mkess101]

Can see the argument for it after the first round of Maia vs Colby but I'd be careful. Khabib is the last guy who intended to wrestle RDA in a fight of his and Colby will be bigger physically

You guys guessing on lines suck LOL...but you all have different ideas so it cancels itself out!

But seriously, @CheeseAndHoneyMustard makes a damn good point here and it's not just that Colby is a wrestler. It's that his style is actually about as close to Khabib as we will see. Meaning Colby doesn't rely as much on explosive double legs (though he has a good shot), he can chain wrestle. And while he doesn't dish out the damage that Khabib does with top position, he absolutely has a similar ability to hold guys down.

Basically, I think RDA is a better fighter than Colby. But styles make fights. As usual lines dictate everything, but counting Colby out here...I think that's a mistake.

 

[null]

Limited to a to win one unit play on Whitaker opener. Smh

From what I have been seeing lately I think 5D has a blanket limit of to win or to risk $100 on openers of all kinds in recent weeks and months. I am pretty sure that it didn't used to be that way, but a lot of people have expressed this frustration lately.

 

[mkess101]

LOL

Conor -750
Floyd +525

Is this actually going to happen? How do we cap it that this fight actually ever takes place?

 

[ill800]

From what I have been seeing lately I think 5D has a blanket limit of to win or to risk $100 on openers of all kinds in recent weeks and months. I am pretty sure that it didn't used to be that way, but a lot of people have expressed this frustration lately.

It definitely has changed, probably since kalikas left.

 

[ill800]

LOL

Conor -750
Floyd +525

Is this actually going to happen? How do we cap it that this fight actually ever takes place?

I think it will. But who knows when. I dont see Conor’s line being at -750 for long

 

[mkess101]

It definitely has changed, probably since kalikas left.

No question. They wait forever to open most lines, and limit everyone when they do. They don't trust themselves without Kalikas basically.

 

[Sadistics]

It definitely has changed, probably since kalikas left.

It changed after that Austin card where they opened Sage -195, Neal -145, and Davis -125. They got wrecked on all 3 and now we basically set the lines with our $100 max bets. If you're betting big amounts I find it's best to wait for other books to open lines or for limits to go up, otherwise you're just drastically driving the line down for trivial amounts.

 

[lilbloaty]

It changed after that Austin card where they opened Sage -195, Neal -145, and Davis -125. They got wrecked on all 3 and now we basically set the lines with our $100 max bets. If you're betting big amounts I find it's best to wait for other books to open lines or for limits to go up, otherwise you're just drastically driving the line down for trivial amounts.

yeah you americans ruin the lines at the openers just for 50 bucks profit

 

[mkess101]

It changed after that Austin card where they opened Sage -195, Neal -145, and Davis -125. They got wrecked on all 3 and now we basically set the lines with our $100 max bets. If you're betting big amounts I find it's best to wait for other books to open lines or for limits to go up, otherwise you're just drastically driving the line down for trivial amounts.

Makes sense. I only use 5d though. And I'm never betting more than a few hundred bucks on a fight. So for people like me, if you see a line you like, you kinda have to hit it or someone else most likely will drive the price down anyway.

I don't know who drove Lyoto from -120 to -150, but I know I moved him from -150 to -190. Then others have moved him all the way to -240 (which I said he'd go to--I was right on this one ha ha!). I guess it sucks for big bettors that like Lyoto but are now gonna get a shit price at other books when they open him, but I kinda just have to do my own thing. I realize my few hundred bucks is nothing to someone that wanted to put 5k or whatever on Machida, but I don't really know what to say...sorry I guess?

 

[null]

LFA 36 weigh-ins, main card live at 10 PM EDT on AXS tomorrow:

 

[Sadistics]

yeah you americans ruin the lines at the openers just for 50 bucks profit

What's worse is when someone's limited and their $20 bets move lines the same amount as a max bet from a fresh account.

 

[turbozed]

+180 for nguyen was a great line, pissed i missed it. i'm not even sure he should be the underdog. bibiano's gas tank looks suspect and his last 4 opponents don't even have wikipedia pages.

Not sure why we're focusing on Bibiano's gas tank here. Martin hasn't been into the 3rd round in his whole career yet, and you gotta wonder if he can keep up the pace throwing full power into all of his shots like he does. Add to that the fact that he'll be cutting down a weightclass after fighting at 72 kg or so in his last fight just 3 or 4 months ago.

Bibiano has gone the distance in 5 rounders 4 times. And that last fight against McLaren wasn't really close IMO. McLaren had a part of one round where he was able to land any damage. Bibiano was able to knock him down in the 5th round.

I'm rooting for Martin but Bibiano is as experienced of a vet as it gets. The guy hasn't lost in 8 years, and has Matt Hume as a trainer. I'm thinking he can get the job done here.

 

[turbozed]

Invicta lines are coming out here in the US. I kind of like Mizuki Inoue to claim the vacant Strawweight title against Jandiroba. Although Mizuki is moving up from Atomweight, I don't think she'll be a big size disadvantage. I think she'll have a bit of a technique and speed advantage on the feet but the majority of the fight I'm expecting to take place on the ground where the fight will be pretty evenly matched. Although (off the top of my head) I think Jandiroba has better accolades in jiu jitsu, from her training center and awards. Mizuki is no slouch on the mat herself having competed in jitz tournaments and looking really well versed in her fights. Mizuki frustrated good sub defense, ability to take the back from weird angles and ability to create a scramble when she's starting to get in danger. I feel pretty good at taking Mizuki at the pick 'am it's at right now at -120 for 1.8u to win 1.5u Although I always appreciate any insight or leans you guys might have here and I hate to tag people for inquiries but I'm curious what @JimGunn thinks of the card overall. Happy gambling everyone!

Mizuki is more well rounded but she's not very physical. Jan D Roba has developed some great takedowns in her game so I think she can get the fight to the mat. From what I've seen from Roba, she's comfortable playing guard and sweeping from there (there's a grappling match with Gadelha where she wins with stalling and one sweep I think). However, she has great top control and is methodical about improving positions. I think she'll be able to spend enough time on top to wear Mizuki down. Should be a great fight tho

 

[turbozed]

What's worse is when someone's limited and their $20 bets move lines the same amount as a max bet from a fresh account.

Fresh accounts can only bet $50 now on Invicta so it's not a huge difference anymore. I remember getting $250 down on these lines last year.

 

[null]

I ended up doubling my bet on Robbins at the same +105 as the line I originally hit when the line moved away and then back to that same number. The limits do also go up as we get closer. But yeah, they don't trust their own setting of the openers any more because some of us here or in the general betting public know more about some of the lesser promotions like Invicta or One FC or Glory kickboxing than the oddsmakers do, whoever that is now.

PS- I started an Invicta FC 28 thread so we have someplace to discuss the card pre-fight and during the card, if any mod wants to merge these over.

 

[Gugabe]

Jenkins fade worked out for a few units, good times.

 

[kenfloshogun]

ACB Lines

 

[Sham5916910]

Ffs was hoping Borisov was gonna be the dog

 

[lefontes]

1u on Yamada 3.30 and 1u on Bibiano 1.78 - 188bet

Hit boths

One FC 70

 

[null]

1u on Yamada 3.30 and 1u on Bibiano 1.78 - 188bet

Hit boths

One FC 70

Great line on Yamada. I hit him for only +150 at 5D and thought I got a decent price. I'm on Nguyen though.