I'll probably just make small bets on Vitor rd 1 and 2. Aside from the dec win over Nate (which Vitor was kinda gifted), the last time he won a fight that went past round 2 was...wait for it...2007! 11 years and 20-something fights. If it goes past round 2, I'm pretty confident Machida wins (scratch that, more than pretty confident). He's just as old as Machida, more mileage, and a worse chin. And he's proven he has 3-5 minutes worth of cardio at this point, tops. I mean yeah, the Anders fight was close, but that's a young up and coming guy who'd been blasting everyone. He clipped Lyoto a few times and Machida didn't crumble. He fought a great tactical fight given his opponent, and got the win. Kelvin hit Vitor with one decent punch and Vitor looked like he'd been hit with a wrecking ball. And the 3 fights prior to Anders were Brunson, Rockhold, Jacare. I mean, yeah, they all stopped Machida but that's not exactly scrubs he's fighting. Those guys would have done the same thing to Vitor, probably just more quickly. I cap Lyoto around -250 or so, maybe up to -300 range. Vitor's chance to win imo is to blitz Lyoto early and catch him. Otherwise, he's gonna slow down and get lit up (or at least clearly outpointed).