General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - March, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by kenfloshogun, Feb 28, 2018.

  1. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    At least Bouland hits as a big dog.

    +2.08u for Cage Warriors, alright.

    Edit :
    Also Narkun won, +1.3u profit from that as well!
     
  2. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Green Belt

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    Just got home to see the Boulard win! Nice!!
     
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  3. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    There are two lines out there right now that are just way off imo, and I am now pretty significantly invested in both.

    Mir/Fedor u1.5 at -145. These guys are both old dadbods with questionable chins. Neither is interested in fighting for 15 minutes these days, and both still have enough power to hurt the other. This thing is very unlikely to see round 2 imo. Most likely Mir starches Fedor, but could be the other way around. Either way, I don't think it lasts very long at all. -145 is a steal imo.

    The other one is NOT Khabib by dec at -175. Sorry, but the way these two guys are wired, this isn't gonna be Khabib laying on top of Tony for 25 minutes. First of all, Tony takes too many chances and is too aggressive (for better or worse) for that to happen. Second of all, that's not what Khabib does. He looks to pass and do damage. Anyone that expects some sort of lay n pray by Khabib in this fight is way off imo. FDNGD is -165, so it's a no brainer to bet NOT Khabib dec instead for barely any extra juice. Tony could win a decision if he has success standing and Khabib slows down late. I love this line, I'd be very surprised, despite both guys' durability and cardio, if this fight went to the cards.
     
  4. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    I haven't watched it yet, but I couldn't resist getting results and apparently Narkun upset Khalidov. Looks like size does matter! 2.55 units profit.

    KSW 42 Results Risk $210.00

    Tomasz Narkun (-110) vs Mamed Khalidov $110.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Tomasz Narkun (+155) vs Mamed Khalidov $100.00 for $155.00= $155.00
    -----
    Total Profit= $255.00
     
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  5. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Green Belt

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    Damn I knew I should have blind bet Askham @3.00
     
  6. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I put 1u on him. Glad I did.
     
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  7. Tony J

    Tony J Blue Belt

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    Oof, big wait for next UFC. Been red hot these last events (Vadim Nemkov, Angela Hill, and Ketlen Viera thank you) and I traditionally like Euro UFC cards, but not this upcoming one.

    Still, Cage Warriors + Invicta after Volkov vs Werdum.

    Have this little nugget remaining:
     

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  8. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Wow who is hammering gastelum?

    Thank you for Souza at +135
     
  9. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    Nice! Wish I could get these openers of Lee and Jacare. Hopefully it's still worth it when they are available on one of the eurobooks I use.

    Put 3u on Rose (2,5) and 2u on Blachowicz (2,8) though.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2018
  10. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    I actually think I want to bet Barboza. I’m figuring money will come in on.lee and I can get barboza at dog prices
     
  11. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    If I can get Lee at + money I will definitely take it, but might end up on Barboza.
     
  12. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    I like lee and all but barboza will whip him if he can stuffs lees takedowns.

    Trinaldo was beating lee up before he got caught
     
  13. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    I agree that if Barboza can keep it standing it's going to be a hard night for Lee, but I think Lee's wrestling will be to much for him.

    Anyway, it's going to be a veryyy interesting fight.
     
  14. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Whoa WTF???

    Machida -150
    Belfort +110

    How? Machida just looked great vs a young up and coming guy, and Vitor is basically a walking corpse after about 3 minutes of cage time. Easiest hedge in the world with Vitor rd 1 when it opens too.

    I almost never go this big on a fight that's 2+ months away, but this line makes zero sense to me. Machida is gonna be -225 to -250 as the fight approaches imo.

    5u Machida -150.
     
  15. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I like Barboza here too. I think he'll chew up Lee's lead leg. Lee doesn't have the chain wrestling Khabib has, Lee relies more on explosive shots to get TD's. Barboza is good at stuffing those from distance.

    One concern is the prolonged beating Barboza took from Khabib, but aside from that I think he matches up well with Lee. And even in that fight Barboza showed a lot of heart and that he'll fight for your $, even when he's behind. He already showed that with his comeback win over Dariush too.
     
  16. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Barboza +110 on 5d. I just did 2u.
     
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  17. kenfloshogun

    kenfloshogun Orange Belt

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    Where'd you find this line?
     
  18. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    5d.

    But it's -190 now. Machida will get bet to -240ish before anyone touches Vitor is my guess.
     
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  19. danareem

    danareem Orange Belt

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    betfair sportsbook
    ortega 2.25
    holloway 1.61
     
  20. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    5d

    J. Benevitez -175
    S. Pettis +135

    I lean Joe B for sure, but I kinda think Pettis might get bet here. Gonna wait. Fight's not until June anyway.
     

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