Bellator 205 McKee vs Macapa

lifeisgood12345 said:
Kinda reminds me of Kristina Williams vs Heather Hardy. Kielholtz has hype but I don't think she is actually good at fighting. Veta at +195 is valuetown IMO
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I don't think you can compare Kielholtz to Hardy. Hardy can't grapple, is a boxer (who started sport as an adult to get in shape... yup, that story again) doing MMA because she needs money; Kielholtz was a member of the Dutch Judo team as a youth. Being a pure boxer (and a sloppy brawler of one at that), Hardy had enormous problems dealing with kicks vs Williams; Kielholtz is an experienced kickboxer, Bellator kickboxing champion, she won't be phased by kicks, quite the opposite.
Hardy struggled to beat the can Bellator gave her in her first fight, losing at least the first round; Kielholtz dominated the cans she's fought in Bellator so far, winning every round.

Arteaga's scramblyness on the ground is my only concern but it's not like she presents a lethal submission threat. Kielholtz does use her judo more than I'd like to see but to be fair, it's helped her dominate her Bellator bouts so far, and I still think she's more likely to come out on top in grappling exchanges in the fight. Just some questions about experience and decision making maybe but odds around 1.60ish seemed pretty good for a fighter I think is better everywhere on paper.
 
Had to put 0.4u on Macapa via decision at +850. I do favor McKee but he would not be the first or only prospect derailed in MMA by a more experienced fighter.

Also 1u on Denise via decison at +100. ML is like -230 in my bookie.
 
Tebowned said:
I always fade Veta and lost money last time out. She definitely overperforms though.

No lines but prelim info:

Josh Wick is a fun fighter. He used to spar at my gym when he was like 15 or 16. Been fighting since that age too.
I think his striking is way better than Nunez but wick struggles with wrestlers.
Gonna be a fun fight though.
Trains in Colorado with Curtis Blaydes and does some training at bangs place.

Vince morales is a fun striker. Fought in dwcs, almost won but lost. He also has a loss to josh wick who is on this card. Finished Brandon hempleman who Marlon Moraes couldn't finish. Also has a ko win against Andrew Cruz who is on this card.

Andrew Cruz hasn't done too well as a pro. He carries to much fat and should be at 135lbs. Won a small Idaho lottery a few years back but was skinnier and more promising before then.
Wrestling background and actually beat Josh Wicj.

Kyle frost is overhyped locally but David Rangel is horrible. David has no cardio.

Emilio trevino is pretty promising. He needs a better camp though imo. LankY Polynesian who is a natural born fighter.


I was thinking about going but Im gonna pass.
Wish we got a better fight here in Boise since last card was shit. Melvin manhoef vs Carvallo 1 was the main event.
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Do you think any Boise dimes will bless us with their presence in the crowd?

<{boisedyme}>
 
Xuh said:
I don't think you can compare Kielholtz to Hardy. Hardy can't grapple, is a boxer (who started sport as an adult to get in shape... yup, that story again) doing MMA because she needs money; Kielholtz was a member of the Dutch Judo team as a youth. Being a pure boxer (and a sloppy brawler of one at that), Hardy had enormous problems dealing with kicks vs Williams; Kielholtz is an experienced kickboxer, Bellator kickboxing champion, she won't be phased by kicks, quite the opposite.
Hardy struggled to beat the can Bellator gave her in her first fight, losing at least the first round; Kielholtz dominated the cans she's fought in Bellator so far, winning every round.

Arteaga's scramblyness on the ground is my only concern but it's not like she presents a lethal submission threat. Kielholtz does use her judo more than I'd like to see but to be fair, it's helped her dominate her Bellator bouts so far, and I still think she's more likely to come out on top in grappling exchanges in the fight. Just some questions about experience and decision making maybe but odds around 1.60ish seemed pretty good for a fighter I think is better everywhere on paper.
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Kielholtz can fight vs Petra was nowhere near dominant. She edged out every round to be sure, but was eating nearly as many strikes as she was landing.

She also had 0 KO’s in kickboxing which is a red flag for her striking which looks meh to my eye. Probably got lucky in decisions going 18-2 compared to Hardy who was 21-0 in boxing with 4 KO’s. I’d make Hardy fave if they met in MMA.

And her grappling doesnt look impressive either. She just has that one garbage throw and that’s it. Highly doubt she wins with that choke against a strong girl like Veta

Veta is the more powerful striker with higher output who probably does more damage in a close fight. I cap her as the slight fave
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Kielholtz can fight vs Petra was nowhere near dominant. She edged out every round to be sure, but was eating nearly as many strikes as she was landing.

She also had 0 KO’s in kickboxing which is a red flag for her striking which looks meh to my eye. Probably got lucky in decisions going 18-2 compared to Hardy who was 21-0 in boxing with 4 KO’s. I’d make Hardy fave if they met in MMA.

And her grappling doesnt look impressive either. She just has that one garbage throw and that’s it. Highly doubt she wins with that choke against a strong girl like Veta

Veta is the more powerful striker with higher output who probably does more damage in a close fight. I cap her as the slight fave
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So then I have to ask, since you see it that way, you must be jumping for joy with Veta as a significant underdog. How much do you have on Arteaga?
 
JimGunn said:
So then I have to ask, since you see it that way, you must be jumping for joy with Veta as a significant underdog. How much do you have on Arteaga?
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Nothing yet :/

I have been waiting for limits to go up bc I wanted to go huge but she has been hammered for low limits. Should have just taken what I could have gotten at +195 to +145 but now I’ll have to settle for +125 at still low limits and its only a decent not great bet now
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Nothing yet :/

I have been waiting for limits to go up bc I wanted to go huge but she has been hammered for low limits. Should have just taken what I could have gotten at +195 to +145 but now I’ll have to settle for +125 at still low limits and its only a decent not great bet now
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Better off spreading action around at a few different books when the lines get near where you like on these non-UFC cards if you want to get bigger action rather than keep waiting to try to get it all in one place. BM for example has a $1000 risk/win limit on this fight.
 
I got Arteaga at plus 200 on dimes this morning. I was going to pass on this fight, but that is insane and I honestly would favor Arteaga here. Denise is super hittable and she is going to become more hittable when a pace gets put on her.
 
JimGunn said:
Better off spreading action around at a few different books when the lines get near where you like on these non-UFC cards if you want to get bigger action rather than keep waiting to try to get it all in one place. BM for example has a $1000 risk/win limit on this fight.
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I always try to spread between Pinny, BM, BOL, and Nitro, I was just greedy for a really big position on this one and Veta price was worse on BM than BOL/Pinny when I was looking at it. I'm just going to start taking what I can get early bc I never get as much $ down on Bellator as I want.

Lightbringer said:
I got Arteaga at plus 200 on dimes this morning. I was going to pass on this fight, but that is insane and I honestly would favor Arteaga here. Denise is super hittable and she is going to become more hittable when a pace gets put on her.
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I'm with you man....Veta seems like she is rapidly improving her striking and getting into better shape over recent fights too. I'm really not convinced Denise is significantly better than any of Veta's past 4 opponents. Mayo was 4-0 in kickboxing and Yankova was 5-1, they probably could have become champions with a bit of luck if they stuck with it for a longer period.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I always try to spread between Pinny, BM, BOL, and Nitro, I was just greedy for a really big position on this one and Veta price was worse on BM than BOL/Pinny when I was looking at it. I'm just going to start taking what I can get early bc I never get as much $ down on Bellator as I want.



I'm with you man....Veta seems like she is rapidly improving her striking and getting into better shape over recent fights too. I'm really not convinced Denise is significantly better than any of Veta's past 4 opponents. Mayo was 4-0 in kickboxing and Yankova was 5-1, they probably could have become champions with a bit of luck if they stuck with it for a longer period.
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Yea I just feel as if Denise does not throw enough and she doesnt move enough, she stands stationary at times. Veta looked way faster with her footwork in the Ducote fight too. I was just watching side by side and measuring the frames of the Ducote fight vs other Veta fights and she moves significantly faster than other fights of hers in the past so I agree with Veta's improvement.
 
Miesha Tate's baby daddy is making his return to MMA later today when he faces Josh Wick on this Bellator card.
 
1.5u on Rafael Lovato on Pinnacle @1.61

If Honeycutt dont have sucess against Rafael imo Salter dont will have. Rafael is better fight by fight on the feet, if the fight for to the ground hes is high level, onde the best bjj on bellator. Rafael by sub ou decision is the right side.
 
I'm waiting for the last minute totals.
 
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