Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.
I know it's a few weeks away but really liking Matt Mitrione in the main event.
Roy Nelson has kind of revitalized his career becoming wrestling Roy instead of knockout Roy but Matt Mitrione is going to be too mobile, quick and fast for Roy to take him down and keep him down and Mitrione will be able to keep him at the end of his jab with his 79' to 72' inch reach advantage to win a most likely decision.
I don't see Roy knocking out Matt like he did in their first fight in the UFC, Matt Mitrione will probably more cautious this time around in his exchanges.
Matt still has to rush in and blitz big country or try to use wide punches from farther away, I see this as a very dangerous fight for Matt and I like Roy at underdog odds. I seriously think he has a good chance to win the entire tournament.
Why do you say Mitrione needs to throw wide punches from farther away? The first fight 5-6 years ago when Mitrione was still very green, he was finding success with the jab followed by a cross and he had a lot of success with the left body kick and the left head kick was there too. Roy who was never quick, but definitely quicker 5-6 years ago and threw more hands.
In Roy's last fight, Jay Ayala who is a decent young fighter was winning the standup war until Roy decided his best path to victory was wrestling and took him down. He was slow to the punches in the standup exchanges. I think Mitrione is a better overall striker than Ayala and a southpaw. If Roy can't take Mitrione down and hold him down, he most likely loses.
The same thing in the Volkov fight, Volkov was just jabbing away and Roy had no answer. Volkov and Mitrione both have almost identical reach at 79' and 80'. Roy at 72' inch reach at a big disadvantage.
I think he will have an advantage in the grappling but I still think Roy can drop Mitrione. Matt has looked very hittable I'm his Bellator stint and I think if he comes at Roy with straight punches, he can counter him and at least win the striking numbers. I wouldn't take Roy as a fav in this fight but @ 2.40 I think this is dog or pass.
mitrione also has very good footwork for a big man. i paid the -170 and i very seldom play favorites in mma or boxing
With Roy’s tendency to wrestle nowadays and his still-ridiculous chin, I’d consider the O1.5 here (currently at +105). His last seven fights have all gone over.
roy might be choosing to wrestle now because his punch resistance is no longer what it was. he did not want to trade with lewis and derrick was pretty much kod by mitrione with what could be considered a short forearm jab
Odds for next bellator
I'm taking Fedor and Roy here. Mir looks fat as hell now. I think Fedor will have a big speed advantage and has a good chance at catching Mir standing. Mitrione thrives on early finishes. Nelson is not a guy who normally falls to quick finishes.
Mir still has 2 months to drop some weight. He'll do an 8 week camp and probably lose 20-30 lbs in that span. Even as dadbod Mir where he was a little soft but not as fat as the recent pics, he's been over 260 lbs. He really has no choice but to get in some sort of shape or he'll be over the limit.
Fedor looks totally done imo. Mir MIGHT be done, but there's more evidence Fedor is from what I've seen. He looked brutal vs Maldonado and was gifted the decision, no way he won that fight. Then Meathead ran through him. At this point, I'd trust Mir's chin a lot more too. Hunto blasted him yeah, but he ate clean shots from Duffee in the first 30 seconds of that fight and was fine, and although the AA fight was a snoozer Mir walked through AA's punches too.
That said, imo not much point taking a side in MIr/Fedor. The fight won't see round 2. The u1.5 is at -155 and that is amazing value imo.
Why is Nemkov a +200 dog? I think this fight is a lot closer that the odds suggest. McGeary has looked pretty shit recently, his TDD is just not there, where as Nemkov has that sambo/grappling background, I could easily see the Russian take McGeary down and smother him for 3 rounds. Anyone have any comments?
Bestfightodds punked me. I thought the fight was this Friday! In retrospect, I have no clue how I thought Nelson/Mitrione, Mir/Fedor, and Bader/Mo would be on the same card!
It did for me, too. I bet a hundy on fedor last week thx to bfo and then realized it got pushed back to april
Same. My book lists it as taking place this Saturday, so I'm guessing they also half assed it.
LOFL. I thought the same thing. I still like Fedor I think. And I really like Nelson
anybody on Campos here?
I still don't get you guys thinking Fedor has value +145 or whatever he is now. +200 maybe, MAYBE worth a stab. But he's looked awful two fights in a row (the ONLY two fights he's had in what, 4 years?). He'll be undersized, as he always was, but now the speed and reflex advantages he had are most likely minimal (if they even exist at all anymore). Mir isn't exactly a takedown whiz, but if he does try I think he can put Fedor on his back. And from there Mir most likely lays waste to him. And if it stays standing, Mir has more power these days and probably the better chin too.
Personally, the u1.5 at -155 seems like a far better bet than picking a side to me.
Gonna look at Nemkov. You just can't rely on winning fights off your back in 2018. Anyone got any Nemkov knowledge? I see at least his last seven fights are available.
Thinking Matt will get it done this time. Roy Nelson isn't even trying to hide the fact that he is a one trick pony. So much more than Hendo or Hunto.
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