Bellator 194 - Nelson vs Mitrione - Connecticut

[chemmy]

Thinking Matt will get it done this time. Roy Nelson isn't even trying to hide the fact that he is a one trick pony. So much more than Hendo or Hunto.

I disagree about him being a one-trick pony. I think Mitrione probably gets it done too, but Roy hasn't been looking for that bomb lately. He has gone back to his grappling roots, which could serve him well if he's able to get Meathead down in this matchup.

 

[Sapp]

Hard for me to picture Roy getting finished here, he ate heavy shots from Ayala like they were nothing, including a nasty frontkick.

 

[quincy k]

i think this fight is going to go the way of nelson miocic. matts jab, length and footwork wont allow nelson to do much of anything if he can survive the first five minutes.

take out roys 2nd round ko over silva who was coming off four first round ko losses and roy isnt very dangerous after the first round

 

[Oblivian]

anybody on Campos here?

I'll most likely be on him. This will probably be a slugfest. If it does end up going deep, I can see Campos sneaking in a few takedowns too.

 

[vkram]

Why is Nemkov a +200 dog? I think this fight is a lot closer that the odds suggest. McGeary has looked pretty shit recently, his TDD is just not there, where as Nemkov has that sambo/grappling background, I could easily see the Russian take McGeary down and smother him for 3 rounds. Anyone have any comments?

Nemkov is now +125 but I still think there is some value. McGeary has looked poor vs Vassell and I don't think his style is great for modern MMA. We know that he gives up takedowns and is very comfortable on his back whilst Nemkov is a solid sambo guy and has some vicious ground and pound which is expected since he trains with Fedor.

 

[Sham5916910]

Passing on Nemkov after tape. He's sloppy on the mat and has bad fight iq. Young so could be improving but i can see McGeary getting on his back at some point.

 

[vkram]

Passing on Nemkov after tape. He's sloppy on the mat and has bad fight iq. Young so could be improving but i can see McGeary getting on his back at some point.

Don’t remember his Rizin fights very well. In the Jiri fight I thought he was doing pretty well but gassed, maybe because of the 10 minute round plus Jiri is a pretty freakish athlete. Don’t remember the Karl and Goran fights.

 

[Sham5916910]

Don’t remember his Rizin fights very well. In the Jiri fight I thought he was doing pretty well but gassed, maybe because of the 10 minute round plus Jiri is a pretty freakish athlete. Don’t remember the Karl and Goran fights.

Yeah he was winning against Jiri but gassed. But before he gassed he nearly got armbarred by Jiri from the bottom and off a Nemkov shot Jiri stepped over straight into mount. I didn't watch the whole Karl fight but the first few mins are more of the same Nemkov has his back taken etc. Pass for me if McGeary gets his back or top position could be over.

 

[michi972]

Mcggeary odds are getting higher.Nemkov isprobably doomed on the mat, how is it at striking.I think Liam takes it,Nemkov is no Davis or Vasell

 

[burge13]

Thinking Matt will get it done this time. Roy Nelson isn't even trying to hide the fact that he is a one trick pony. So much more than Hendo or Hunto.

Over 1.5 is -115ish when I just looked. I think that is a far better bet than picking a side

 

[mkess101]

Over 1.5 is -115ish when I just looked. I think that is a far better bet than picking a side

I played this too. Good price imo.

 

[burge13]

I played this too. Good price imo.

You have to go back to 2014 for a Roy U1.5 & his losses are generally decisions.
Meathead has a lot of first round finishes but how likely is he stopping Roy early really? I'm thinking Meathead decision if props are available but i doubt I get any with Aussie books

 

[EzFlyer]

Mcggeary odds are getting higher.Nemkov isprobably doomed on the mat, how is it at striking.I think Liam takes it,Nemkov is no Davis or Vasell

i totally mixed up nemkov with moldavsky thinking about this matchup w/mcgeary. lol. soooooooo different, haha.

when you said that i was like "haha wtf are you talking about? he's 100% going to take mcgeary down"

<insert jean-luc picard sized facepalm>

nemkov-mcgeary is interesting as hell. moldavsky would've smothered the shit out of mcgeary, lol

 

[Gugabe]

Trying to fight my book to give me a cash-out on Mir-Fedor since they had it advertised as happening this weekend and I'd rather not hold 3u on there for 2 months.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

nemkov-mcgeary is interesting as hell. moldavsky would've smothered the shit out of mcgeary, lol

Is there any reason why McGeary shouldn't be a bigger fave?

It's pretty annoying to watch him chase submissions off his back vs stronger wrestlers who can dominate him on the ground, and Nemkov has a bit of wrestling. But it just seems unlikely that somebody that inexperienced who isn't a dominant wrestler can outgrapple McGeary like Davis + Vassell did.

And the standup edge has to go to McGeary. Not that he has the best striking defense, but he has a 7" reach advantage and super quick hands.

Nemkov is young and improving and has a chance, but I don't see what is special about him to make this a 50/50 fight. Seems McGeary should be juiced more.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Couple more lines, don't rly know much about these guys.

 

[null]

Value play at Bellator 194: Female boxing champion Ana Julaton who is making her Bellator debut this Friday is a whopping +290 against fellow former professional boxer turned mixed martial artist Heather Hardy. Julaton is 2-3 as a pro and has previously fought decent competition in One FC in Asia. Hardy won her MMA debut in her first Bellator fight impressively, but then got outstruck and TKOed when she got her nose smashed in via a kick by a more well rounded martial artist who herself was making her pro MMA debut in Hardy's most recent bout to bring her record to 1-1. It makes zero sense for Hardy to be such a big favorite, especially after her last fight. I consider this a who knows pick 'em type of fight and therefore Julaton at +290 has serious value imho. For what it's worth I also listened to an interview with Julaton on The MMA Report podcast and she sounded like she felt disrespected and determined to show that she is the better fighter. 2u on Julaton at +290.

 

[quincy k]

just bought it at +315

 

[mkess101]

Mitrione dec +370 has fantastic value imo.

Roy might try to wrestle, but Matt is far more athletic and even with his mediocre TDD should be able to stay off his back for the most part. Roy's standup is always dangerous, but he throws insanely low volume and looks for that killshot with his right hand nonstop. He just doesn't care about volume striking at all. Now add in that Matt most likely is going to try to use his superior movement and speed to fight Roy at range and try to avoid exchanges, and it's pretty easy to envision a fight where he just outpoints Roy for 15 minutes. Added to this likelihood is that Roy KO'd Matt the first time they fought 5 years ago. Matt knows first hand the power Roy has, and most likely will try to avoid it.

 

[EzFlyer]

0.5u nelson-mitrione o1.5 +103

0.13u Freire DEC +285
0.33u O2.5 +105

0.25u nemkov-mcgeary DNGD -185

That's freaking it so far.