Bellator 194 - Nelson vs Mitrione - Connecticut

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Since I didn't watch any tape on either pre fight (and thus didn't bet the fight), I should ask: Did Julaton show such brutal fight IQ in previous fights too? I mean, her lack of grappling skills are obvious. Has she shown in the past the same proclivity for initiating grappling exchanges despite her horrible grappling? If so, I can see your point. That makes laying the juice on Hardy far more understandable. But if in her previous fights Julaton mostly stuck with her background (striking), I don't know how you could cap the fight before it happened and use her fight IQ as a reason why.

    Like I said, I don't know the answer. To me, that would determine a lot of the direction of this discussion.
     
  2. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Orange Belt

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    You used hindsight. And Hardy was barely a tick up on the garbage scale. Therefore, Julaton is and was the right side. Now that we know what happened, obviously that's wrong. Doesn't change the fact that betting heavy (especially) fav's will not serve long term.

    I think we're getting tangled here. Maybe you're talking just this single fight and that's it where I'm talking long-term over multiple fights.

    Again, JJ vs. Rose was meant only as a case study, not as a fighter-to-fighter comparison of two trash barely-Bellator fighters. That being: bet the dog who has a path to victory. I stand by the Julaton bet because she had a path to victory: her opponent sucks.
     
  3. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    I gave a long explanation as well as a disclaimer about the way I handicapped the fight earlier in the thread. Julaton went for a wrestling heavy gameplan instead of the kicks and boxing she did in previous fights which was unexpected, but the result easily could have went the other way if she kept Hardy on the bottom at some points when she was on top. Despite winning a lame decision, eating the chalk on a slightly less awful Hardy was clearly the worse bet than losing money on Julaton as a 3 to 1 underdog if one is a long term bettor who bets a lot of fights and isn't desperate to win or pass on this particular fight strictly on its own merits. Hardy barely has a winning record herself after losing to a debuting fighter and letting the likes of Julaton make it competitive.
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I mean, yeah, she sucks. I'd agree that before the first grappling exchange that trying that route maybe wasn't horrible fight IQ. But after that? HELL YES it was. But how would anyone know she'd be that dumb? Hardy did literally NOTHING standing. NOTHING. Now, neither did Julaton, I get that. But the ONLY reason Hardy clearly won that fight was due to grappling. And if nobody knew how much Julaton sucked on the mat, how do you cap that pre fight, THEN cap that she'd continually initiate grappling exchanges? You are saying the tape shows how horrible Julaton is. Do you mean with her grappling as well? Because striking-wise, Hardy looked equally as lost.

    Basically, I'm saying there's a bunch of unknowns with two shitty fighters and included in those unknowns is what strategy Julaton would use. IDK, this is too much time spent for me discussing a fight I didn't even bet. It's more a philosophical discussion I guess. Congrats on winning your bets.
     
  5. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    But if there's no evidence her grappling sucks from tape (or that she'd keep trying to grapple) how would anyone know? Saying she sucks and is low level sounds great, but basing it off just striking, Hardy looked equally as bad (which you haven't addresssed). So there's lots of tape showing Julaton with terrible grappling? @JimGunn said the tape showed her mostly striking. IDK man...
     
  6. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Equally as bad STRIKING. Not trying to be a dick here at all (seriously I'm not), but you have to actually read what I type when you reply.

    As for "why would you bother going anything but small...", I completely, TOTALLY agree actually. And to my knowledge, nobody here DID go anything but small. (And again, I didn't bet the fight at all).
     
  7. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Orange Belt

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    I don't have the source with me but someone in this forum showed a 10% return in 2017 when just betting the +200 and lower dogs only.
     
  8. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Fwiw Hardy admitted publicly that before the Williams loss she was just trying turn every scenario into boxing and that loss taught her "oh you need more tools in mma". That kind of mindset is worse than the sub par fight iq julaton displayed. In the end it's gambling, the outcome is uncertain and we're not here to ridicule and fight each other we're here to take money from the bookies. Just 2 cents from a noob here but w/e
     
  9. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    All good man. I don't mind good back and forth. And obviously everyone isn't gonna agree on everything here. Otherwise it would be pointless and boring right?
     
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