Bellator 194 - Nelson vs Mitrione - Connecticut
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I thought about betting Julaton, but I'm going to pass. There is too much evidence that she sucks.
She was 2-2 pre-Bellator with her wins coming against 2-5 and 3-7 opponents. And she was awfullll in her Bellator debut.
They gave her a complete zero late replacement in Lisa Blaine, whose Bellator highlighted as a BJJ blue belt. And Julaton just couldn't hurt her with strikes. She was clearly focused on developing kicks instead of throwing punches, but by her 5th MMA fight you'd think that she would have developed a more cohesive striking game.
Meanwhile Hardy looked fine in her beatdown of scrub Alice Yauger. Yeah, she took a few hits, but at least she showed the ability to throw nice combos, deal damage, and get the stoppage.
And I believe Kristina Williams is lowkey good. Tall, athletic, black belt in tae kwondo, been training MMA since she was 23. Yes she exposed holes in Hardy's defense, but her striking game looks soooooo much better than Julaton's.
So I'd say Hardy is the rightful fave. It's hard to say whether she will look more like -150 or -500 with such little info. But Julaton offers so little I can't bring myself to roll the dice on her.
She was 2-2 pre-Bellator with her wins coming against 2-5 and 3-7 opponents. And she was awfullll in her Bellator debut.
They gave her a complete zero late replacement in Lisa Blaine, whose Bellator highlighted as a BJJ blue belt. And Julaton just couldn't hurt her with strikes. She was clearly focused on developing kicks instead of throwing punches, but by her 5th MMA fight you'd think that she would have developed a more cohesive striking game.
Meanwhile Hardy looked fine in her beatdown of scrub Alice Yauger. Yeah, she took a few hits, but at least she showed the ability to throw nice combos, deal damage, and get the stoppage.
And I believe Kristina Williams is lowkey good. Tall, athletic, black belt in tae kwondo, been training MMA since she was 23. Yes she exposed holes in Hardy's defense, but her striking game looks soooooo much better than Julaton's.
So I'd say Hardy is the rightful fave. It's hard to say whether she will look more like -150 or -500 with such little info. But Julaton offers so little I can't bring myself to roll the dice on her.
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https://www.mmamania.com/2018/2/15/...e-rematch-heavyweight-grand-prix-bellator-194
Nelson talking about having flu/cold for a few weeks during camp. Worth noting, as a real flu can significantly hinder his camp conditioning.
Nelson talking about having flu/cold for a few weeks during camp. Worth noting, as a real flu can significantly hinder his camp conditioning.
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I agree. I got her at +315. I like how aggressive julaton is and the fact that she goes for takedowns. I think hardy is getting bet mainly on name recognition and this is way closer than the odds reflect.
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According to the commissioner in charge, Heather Hardy had a terrible weight cut, looked very drained on the scale and was not even given the opportunity to strip off her outfit and try to weigh-in naked behind a towel. when she weighed in very slightly over the 126 pound flyweight allowance. Julaton will get 20% of her purse. Some controversy behind whether this was justified. http://mmajunkie.com/2018/02/mike-mazzulli-explains-heather-hardy-weigh-ins-bellator-194-mma
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From the interview:
“It’s actually been a pretty rough camp, it’s probably one of my shittier ones, but at the end of the day you’re going to see my hand raised on Friday. The biggest thing has just been, it was flu season, and you know I’m old so just getting up out of bed just sucks, all that good stuff. For like two weeks (I) couldn’t get out of bed where that was virus was going around killing people. So I wanted to make sure I didn’t kill my (training) partners and you know all that good stuff.”
Damn sounds pretty bad.
Despite the update about Heather's potential tough weight cut, just wanted to temper expectations on Ana Julaton now that I had a chance to re-watch her Bellator debut at Bellator 185. She threw good kicks against a part-time fighter who stepped in on four weeks notice, but she seemed like she was moving in slow motion, almost refused to throw punches at all and got taken down three times. She did get up twice though in round one and two. For her to win this she has to look a lot better than that first performance by putting together her boxing with her kicks, plus having more urgency. Maybe even using wrestling herself. I have to believe that she's been training and her coaches will have her looking like a more complete fighter. So it's a value play with Julaton as nearly a three to one underdog, but a lot of the outcome depends on how Julaton looks compared to her previous Bellator fight.
I also like the over 1½ on Mitrione vs Nelson at -135, and Mitrione by 3 round decision at +278 in the main event. Patricky Freire by 3 round decision at +234 vs Derek Campos. Also like Liam McGeary scorecards=no action vs Vadim Nekmov. Liam has never been KOed, but he might get wrestlefucked or outpointed if he doesn't get a submission with his long limbs or other finish.
I also like the over 1½ on Mitrione vs Nelson at -135, and Mitrione by 3 round decision at +278 in the main event. Patricky Freire by 3 round decision at +234 vs Derek Campos. Also like Liam McGeary scorecards=no action vs Vadim Nekmov. Liam has never been KOed, but he might get wrestlefucked or outpointed if he doesn't get a submission with his long limbs or other finish.
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I feel like Campos is going to be a little more cautious than he has lately. Think he knows if he's too aggressive, hell get ko'd. And patricky is always patient. Think it had pitbull Dec written all over it.. just controlling the center, landing good counters
Campos might surprise me and go for it, again, but I think he gets ko'd if he does.
I have added to o2.5 and don't like either side of ML right now
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Huh? Isn't it normal airtime for USA Bellator? 9 pm et
And usa doesn't ever get live betting for Bella, sadly.
That sounds about right to me. I think I've been looking for reasons to bet Campos that just aren't there. Going to pass.
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Damn B65 doesnt have bellator betting .. Wiped out on my bodog account haha 
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Bet365? Go to more sports at he bottom then combat sportsDamn B65 doesnt have bellator betting .. Wiped out on my bodog account haha
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Is this tonight???
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There may be value on Roy at +165
Mitrione is a freak physically, but his defense is awful which is why he loses to almost every decent fighter he ever faces and is mostly a bum terminator. His big wins are against Black Beast who does not absorb big shots wells, and washed up Fedor.
Roy has looked really bad trying to strike with fighters like Volkov and BB, but he was tagging Mitrione pretty easily in their first matchup. Mitirone's defense seems as bad as ever, the only narrative in his favor is that his striking may have improved while Roy's has declined.
But Mitirone is only 2 years younger so is it really that likely he zoomed past Roy in the striking department? They are different people and Mitrione may be aging more gracefully, so it's definitely possible. But Roy was in control in the first matchup and I don't think you can be confident that Mitrione will control the striking exchanges this time.
And even if Meathead does land more, Roy still seems to be durable and he still has a chance of stealing the decision with his wrestling.
Think ppl are assuming Roy is done a bit prematurely, he's a crafty veteran who somehow manages to hang in fights in spite of being a fat old fuck with short arms. He looked +EV against Ayala, and I think there's a good chance he looks +EV vs Mitrione.
Could be like Jacare vs Brunson where everybody assumed Jacare was old/done and Brunson was bet from +140 to -115, and then ancient history repeated itself and Jacare got the round 1 KO again.
Mitrione is a freak physically, but his defense is awful which is why he loses to almost every decent fighter he ever faces and is mostly a bum terminator. His big wins are against Black Beast who does not absorb big shots wells, and washed up Fedor.
Roy has looked really bad trying to strike with fighters like Volkov and BB, but he was tagging Mitrione pretty easily in their first matchup. Mitirone's defense seems as bad as ever, the only narrative in his favor is that his striking may have improved while Roy's has declined.
But Mitirone is only 2 years younger so is it really that likely he zoomed past Roy in the striking department? They are different people and Mitrione may be aging more gracefully, so it's definitely possible. But Roy was in control in the first matchup and I don't think you can be confident that Mitrione will control the striking exchanges this time.
And even if Meathead does land more, Roy still seems to be durable and he still has a chance of stealing the decision with his wrestling.
Think ppl are assuming Roy is done a bit prematurely, he's a crafty veteran who somehow manages to hang in fights in spite of being a fat old fuck with short arms. He looked +EV against Ayala, and I think there's a good chance he looks +EV vs Mitrione.
Could be like Jacare vs Brunson where everybody assumed Jacare was old/done and Brunson was bet from +140 to -115, and then ancient history repeated itself and Jacare got the round 1 KO again.
