Bellator 184 - Dantas vs Caldwell - Oklahoma

Curran is really on the decline, he looked bad in his last fight. Clearly not the same fighter he once was and he hasn't fought in 18 months.

Curran is going to struggle to win rounds against Texeira who is aggressive and has a high out put. Curran throws such a low volume of strikes now, he's going to get out worked by Texeira who has looked great recently.

21-2 is an impressive record and his only losses are split decisons. I actually thought Texeira got robbed in his last fight. I really like Texeira at underdog odds here.
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Dude is always getting high, look at his instagram
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what? its just e-cig no thc and pretty sure he is only doing it becourse he in sponsered by them.. the capsel stuff is just hemp oil for recovery again no thc in that stuff
 
wack3d said:
what? its just e-cig no thc and pretty sure he is only doing it becourse he in sponsered by them.. the capsel stuff is just hemp oil for recovery again no thc in that stuff
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Half The Battle podcast said that the stuff he smoking gets you high, they said its some strong stuff
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Curran is really on the decline, he looked bad in his last fight. Clearly not the same fighter he once was and he hasn't fought in 18 months.

Curran is going to struggle to win rounds against Texeira who is aggressive and has a high out put. Curran throws such a low volume of strikes now, he's going to get out worked by Texeira who has looked great recently.

21-2 is an impressive record and his only losses are split decisons. I actually thought Texeira got robbed in his last fight. I really like Texeira at underdog odds here.
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Yeah, I'm on the o2.5 (like almost everyone here I think) and Tex dec +225.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah, I'm on the o2.5 (like almost everyone here I think) and Tex dec +225.
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lifeisgood12345 said:
This doesn't sound too promising for Pat.

I'm just going to scoop some over and pass on this Bellator card unless Straus becomes an underdog or something silly like that.
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Curran has been on the decline for a while, personal problems + injuries and now he's having big layoffs between fights. In the article it says he's been out because of a back injury, last year it was his knee, he's falling apart, you can see it in his performances too, he's lost his aggression, output is so low.

Meanwhile John Texeira has been getting better and I really think he's coming into his prime. The Lawrence fight was an eye opener, he dominated Lawrence in the striking and thats where Lawrence is meant to be good.

Texeira is a BJJ blackbelt, trains at Nova Uniao and has a very aggressive muay thai attack with high output. I thought he beat Daniel Weichel too. With a record like 21-2 it kind of speaks for itself, Texeira wins fights and only loses close ones. No-brainer to play him as an underdog vs Curran.
 
I bet 2u on Darrion Caldwell at +100 over BW champion Eduardo Dantas. Joe Warren outwrestled Dantas before and Caldwell is much bigger and a great American wrestler. Also like Daniel Straus at -135 over Emmanuel Sanchez, also via wrestling and grinding power. I like the upset with John Teixeira at +140 over former FW champion Pat Currran who I believe is on the decline from injuries and no longer training full time, but working that HVAC job now instead. Also small play on the under 2½ for Taimanglo /Higo since both guys are pretty frequent finishers. Also played the over 2½ at -219 for Teixeira/Curran and Teixeira by 3 round decision at +225.
 
JimGunn said:
I bet 2u on Darrion Caldwell at +100 over BW champion Eduardo Dantas. Joe Warren outwrestled Dantas before and Caldwell is much bigger and a great American wrestler. Also like Daniel Straus at -135 over Emmanuel Sanchez, also via wrestling and grinding power. I like the upset with John Teixeira at +140 over former FW champion Pat Currran who I believe is on the decline from injuries and no longer training full time, but working that HVAC job now instead. Also small play on the under 2½ for Taimanglo /Higo since both guys are pretty frequent finishers. Also played the over 2½ at -219 for Teixeira/Curran and Teixeira by 3 round decision at +225.
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I literally have all the same plays/reads
 
so far i have

1u caldwell +128
1.1u caldwell-dantas O4.5 -110

1.95u straus -130
0.345u straus-sanchez O2.5 -115

1.268u curran-teixeira O2.5 -159

0.775u taimanglo-higo O2.5 -155

obviously i think the overs hit... (a couple small overs done on a foreign friend's foreign account)
 
i would really hope people would watch some curran tape before just auto fading him. based on some news articles/interviews. curran/freire/straus have owned 145 in bellator for 5+ years, and its been bellator's best division until maybe this year (where 170 lookin stacked i think?)

curran's a hell of an accurate puncher, great cardio, great wrestling/subs. his issues are always mental (doesn't pull the trigger etc) and he's had the whole "depression" stuff going on for most of his career. hasn't stopped him from being a top guy. he's still the favorite in my eyes here, but think the line is accurate.

as for how they match up, teixeira is a bit more predictable but throws w/more volume. just clubs with 1-2's and leg kicks etc. he has skills everywhere, but curran's the more versatile fighter overall. teixeira might have bigger balls, tho. and that counts for something. also, w/everyone betting teixeira, no one's mentioned that he can slow down in fights (cause he can and does). curran doesn't.

that said, i wouldn't be surprised what-so-freakin-ever if this is another split decision. it's john teixeira for crying out loud. every one of his fights is a split.
 


Everyone in great shape

Baby Joe made weight for a change.. and man he shouldn't be +200 here.. and +3.5 -105? Fight is way closer than that... I'm gonna play one of these or both...
 
Straus Dec +160, think I prefer over his ML as Sanchez has never been finished and Straus isn't a huge finisher himself. Thoughts?
 
Stunna77 said:
Straus Dec +160, think I prefer over his ML as Sanchez has never been finished and Straus isn't a huge finisher himself. Thoughts?
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I agree-- +160 decision is clearly better than -120 ML, especially if he lost a little pop with age.

I'd say the odds should look something like

Straus ITD 10%
Sanchez ITD 10%
Straus decision 50%
Sanchez decision 30%
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I agree-- +160 decision is clearly better than -120 ML, especially if he lost a little pop with age.

I'd say the odds should look something like

Straus ITD 10%
Sanchez ITD 10%
Straus decision 50%
Sanchez decision 30%
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I ended up hitting Straus dec +160 for .6u. Always keep is small with Belly as weird shit seems to happen every event.
 
Guys don’t get cute -120 is good value for Strauss take that and sprinkle DEC if you’d like.

In regards to Tex vs Curran. Curran is just much to passive for me, and not as aggressive as he needs to be. For him to beat Tex he will either have to ground him or land a good counter shot and put Tex away. Curran doesn’t check leg kicks and Tex has some powerful kicks that I think will play a role in the fight. +140 is value and I hit it for 2.5u
 
BatBoyJG said:
Guys don’t get cute -120 is good value for Strauss take that and sprinkle DEC if you’d like.

In regards to Tex vs Curran. Curran is just much to passive for me, and not as aggressive as he needs to be. For him to beat Tex he will either have to ground him or land a good counter shot and put Tex away. Curran doesn’t check leg kicks and Tex has some powerful kicks that I think will play a role in the fight. +140 is value and I hit it for 2.5u
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Hit Straus -115 for .5u as well in case he somehow lands a flukey strike and finishes. Sanchez is gritty and always in close decisions, but Straus should be able to shut down his wrestling.
 
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