Nick Diaz -
*38 years old (Well past his physical prime).
*Hasn't competed since January 2015 (6 years & 9 Months). This is the worst case of ringrust in UFC history.
*Last win was October 2011 (9 years & 11 months). His next two fights against Condit & GSP weren't impressive performances.
*Reportedly has been 'In the gym' over his years of inactivity, but I know obese people that occasionally go to Planet Fitness.
*No accounts of sparring in training camp, or over the last 6+ years.
*Has been a vegan throughout his inactivity, and yes that is a major factor in terms of muscle density and endurance. Only recently abandoned it for eating meat in his training camp.
*The 'trains for marathons/triathalons' narrative is tired because neither he or Nate ever goes for a finish (in the last 10 years) unless its obvious their opponent is exhausted.
*The interview he gave in spring of last year shows he has severe CTE, or the mental relapses common with people with very long-term weed habits (20+ years), or both.
The absolute best condition Nick will be in the same he was against Anderson Silva, which he (and Silva) basically treated it as a 5-round sparring match in which neither ever went for serious shots or went in for a finish.
And just like that fight, Nick will follow that gameplan and hope for a judges decision, and when he loses he'll bitch and complain the judges were wrong, he clearly should have won the fight. Nick started that PR strategy after his loss to Condit, and then Silva, but then Nate started doing it as well, basically ever conceding a loss.
We're going to see the same shit tonight, unless Lawler finishes him OR beats him so badly by the end of the 5 rounds Diaz claiming he won would be a complete joke.