Your Official UFN 83 bets

Heres my finalized bets cause i got to eat and go to work, hoping to get back by 10 and atleast watch the last 3 fights. Lost about 24 on the bellator so I need to win atleast 50 tonight to be happy

Singles:
Hamilton - 26.25 to win 25
Sarafian - 45 to win 30
Brunson TKO - 6 to win 9.60
Strickland Dec - 7 to win 19.67
Kawajiri +3.5 - 3.50 to win 5.60
Over 5.5 decisions - 20.52 to win 18

Parlays:
Reneau/ Bangbros U4 - 14 to win 11.72
Garbrandt/ Murphy - 30 to win 19.29
Garbrandt/ Bangbros U3 - 15 to win 11.09
Garbrandt/ Bermudez - 10 to win 6.43
Brunson/ Reneau - 10 to win 9.07
Hamilton Dec/ Bangbros U3 - 3.50 to win 28.03
Brunson/ Strickland Dec - 3.50 to win 11.47
Bermudez/ Webb - 20 to win 14.80
Bermudez/ Strickland O2.5 - 7.50 to win 7.89
Bermudez/ Webb ITD - 3.50 to win 5.65
Garbrandt/ Not Krause TKO/ Bangbros U4 - 5 to win 3.68
Garbrandt/ Hamilton/ Bangbros U4 - 16 to win 34.84
Brunson/ Garbrandt/ Bangbros U3 - 3.50 to win 4.04

249.77 to win 275.87 with 46 left in account.

 

UFN 83 Risk $3011.40

Donald Cerrone (-265) vs Alex Oliveira $265.00 for $100.00
Donald Cerrone -3½ points (-195) vs Alex Oliveira $97.50 for $50.00
Donald Cerrone/Alex Oliveira starts round 2 (-296) $148.00 for $50.00
Donald Cerrone/Alex Oliveira starts round 3 (-124) $124.00 for $100.00
Donald Cerrone wins by 5 round decision (+429) $25.00 for $107.25
Donald Cerrone wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+580) $25.00 for $145.00
Alex Oliveira wins in round 1 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00

Derk Brunson -3½ points (-185) vs Roan Carneiro $185.00 for $100.00
Derek Brunson wins inside distance (+116) $50.00 for $58.00

Cody Garbrandt/Augusto Mendes Over 1½ (-158) $79.00 for $50.00
Cody Garbrandt wins by 3 round decision (+191) $40.00 for $76.40
Augusto Mendes wins by submission (+620) $25.00 for $155.00

Dennis Bermudez (-365) vs Tatsuya Kawajiri $365.00 for $100.00
Tatsuya Kawajiri +3½ points (+160) $40.00 for $64.00
Tatsuya Kawajiri wins by 3 round decision (+400) $25.00 for $100.00

Joe Riggs (+220) vs Chris Camozzi $50.00 for $110.00
Joe Riggs scorecards = no action (+209) $50.00 for $104.50
Joe Riggs wins by 3 round decision (+420) $40.00 for $168.00
Chris Camozzi wins by TKO/KO (+360) $35.00 for $126.00

James Krause (-145) vs Shane Campbell $72.50 for $50.00
James Krause/Shane Campbell Over 2½ (-101) $40.40 for $40.00
Shane Campbell wins by 3 round decision (+290) $50.00 for $145.00

Alex Garcia/Sean Strickland Over 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00

Oluwale Bamgbose (+145) vs Daniel Sarafian $50.00 for $72.50
Oluwale Bamgbose/Daniel Sarafian won’t start round 3 (-277) $138.50 for $50.00

Anthony Smith (-136) vs Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes $136.00 for $100.00
Anthony Smith wins by TKO/KO (+330) $35.00 for $115.50
Anthony Smith/Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes Under 1½ (+138) $50.00 for $69.00

Nathan Coy (+235) vs Jonavin Webb $40.00 for $94.00
Nathan Coy wins by 3 round decision (+330) $25.00 for $82.50

Marion Reneau (-175) vs Ashlee Evans-Smith $175.00 for $100.00
Marion Reneau wins inside distance (+155) $40.00 for $62.00
Marion Reneau wins by submission (+300) $25.00 for $75.00
Ashlee Evans-Smith wins by 3 round decision (+400) $25.00 for $100.00

Lauren Murphy -3½ points (-145) vs Kelly Faszholz $72.50 for $50.00
Lauren Murphy wins in round 2 (+749) vs Kelly Faszholz $10.00 for $74.90
Lauren Murphy wins in round 3 (+1198) vs Kelly Faszholz $10.00 for $119.80
Lauren Murphy/Kelly Faszholz Under 2½ (+217) $40.00 for $86.80

Anthony Hamilton (+115) vs Shamil Abdurahimov $50.00 for $57.50
Anthony Hamilton/Shamil Abdurahimov Over 1½ (-106) $53.00 for $50.00
Anthony Hamilton wins by 3 round decision (+550) $25.00 for $137.50

Donald Cerrone/Alex Oliveira FOTN award winner (+250) $20.00 for $50.00

 

Back to play lots of props but very small. Was going to avoid it after it not working out last event, but I don't really like the odds on much SU outside of the parlays I did and I liked the odds on the props I went for. Time to go dark until I get home tomorrow and can watch this. Best of luck all.

Parlays:
Brunson/Bermudez @ 1.61 = £20 returns £32.14
Smith/Guimaraes ITD + Brunson + Bermudez @ 2.41 = £5 returns £12.05

Props:

Cerrone by submission @ 3.50 = £5 returns £17.50
Brunson by KO @ 2.70 = £10 returns £27
Garbrandt by KO @ 2.15 = £5 returns £10.75
Bermudez in r3 @ 15.00 = £1 returns £15
Bermudez in r2 @ 8.00 = £1 returns £8
Riggs by Decision @ 6.00 = £1 returns £6
Krause by Submission @ 3.75 = £2 returns £7.50
Strickland by Decision @ 4.33 = £2 returns £8.66
Bamgbose by r1 KO = 6.00 = £1 returns £6
Smith/Guimares ITD @ 1.50 = £10 returns £15
Smith/Guimares u1.5 @ 2.30 = £5 returns £11.50
Anthony Smith by r1 KO @ 7.50 = £1 returns £7.50
Nathan Coy by Split Decision @ 13.00 = 50p returns £6.50
Renau by SUB @ 3.75 = £1 returns £3.75
Lauren Murphy in r3 @ 17.00 = £1 returns £17
Lauren Murphy in r2 @ 9.50 = £1 returns £9.50
Anthony Hamilton by UD @ 8.50 = £1 returns £8.50

End result = £19.89 profit.

 

Adding sarafian -150 for 1u and kawajiri ITD +800 for 0.25u

 

UFC Fight Night 73 +5.2
UFC190/WSOF22 +.26u
UFC on Fox 16 -0.80u
UFC Fight Night 74 -5.25u
UFC Fight Night 81 -0.25
Bellator 148 +1.95u
UFC on Fox 18 +4.2u
UFC Fight Night 82 +0.82u

+6.13u



UFC Fight Night 83

Alex Oliveira +245 1.5u to win 3.68u
Shane Campbell +135 3u to win 4.05u
Sean Strickland +105 3u to win 3.15u
(Jonavin Webb/Chris Camozzi/Cody Garbrandt) 3u to win 4.23u
Daniel Sarafian -155 3u to win 2u
Anthony Hamilton +115 3u to win 3.45u

GL all

 

Oliveira, Brunson, Hamilton, Garbrandt, Smith --- 150 to win 2,632

Smith, Garbrandt, Hamilton/Shamil O1.5, Krause/Campbell over 2.5, Bermudez/Kawajiri O2.5, Brunson --- 150 to win 2,475

Brunson +Garbrandt --- 350 to win 213

 

ANTHONY HAMILTON VS. SHAMIL ABDURAKHIMOV

PICK: ANTHONY HAMILTON V SHAMIL ABDURAKHIMOV O1.5 (-118)

RISK: 2.50 UNITS
WIN: RISK: 2.04 UNITS

Webb + Cody + Brunson 2.50 units – 2.00 units

 

adding a unit on reneau. wanted -150 or better, never got there, but taking what it is.

 

30-27 smith wtfffff
I was only half watching the fight after round 1 but it seemed like an easy win for Reneau.

 

Adding 1

Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes +120 2u to win 2.4u

 

Adding to Sarafian

Daniel Sarafian -125 2.5u to win 2u

 

Garbrandt/Comozz 3u to win 2.48u

 

Cerrone itd
Garcia
Webb/Camozzi parlay
Krause
Bermudez/Cody/Brunson parlay
Bamgbose

 

Also Camozzi by decision

 

lol I was all over the place on this one. none of my bets or betsizes made any sense to me towards the end of the event. started with sarafian.

-$163 if I calculated correctly. was down $1,200 at one point so I'm happy

 

Another really nice night. Had some added plays and LB but ended up +9.2u. Can't complain!

Edit: Hit Faszholz/Murphy fotn at +1250! Added 4.1 more units to 13.3u overall for the night.

 

I did some good adding late bets and with live betting. I thought Marion Reneau deserved that decision easily in her fight. Really didn't expect such a quick finish in the main event which cost me. A decent winning night overall at least.

UFN 83 Results

Donald Cerrone (-265) vs Alex Oliveira $265.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Donald Cerrone -3½ points (-195) vs Alex Oliveira $97.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Donald Cerrone/Alex Oliveira starts round 2 (-296) $148.00 for $50.00= -$148.00
Donald Cerrone/Alex Oliveira starts round 3 (-124) $124.00 for $100.00= -$124.00
Donald Cerrone wins by 5 round decision (+429) $25.00 for $107.25= -$25.00
Donald Cerrone wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+580) $25.00 for $145.00= -$25.00
Alex Oliveira wins in round 1 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00= -$25.00

Derk Brunson -3½ points (-185) vs Roan Carneiro $185.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Derek Brunson wins inside distance (+116) $50.00 for $58.00= $58.00
Derek Brunson wins in round 1 (+200) $25.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Derek Brunson/Roan Carneiro Under 2½ (-147) $147.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Cody Garbrandt/Augusto Mendes Over 1½ (-158) $79.00 for $50.00= -$79.00
Cody Garbrandt wins by 3 round decision (+191) $40.00 for $76.40= -$40.00
Augusto Mendes wins by submission (+620) $25.00 for $155.00= -$25.00

Dennis Bermudez (-365) vs Tatsuya Kawajiri $365.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Tatsuya Kawajiri +3½ points (+160) $40.00 for $64.00= $64.00
Tatsuya Kawajiri Live In-Play (+160) vs Dennis Bermudez $100.00 for $160.00= -$100.00
Dennis Bermudez/Tatsuya Kawajiri ends in round 3 (+665) $15.00 for $99.75= -$15.00
Tatsuya Kawajiri wins by 3 round decision (+400) $25.00 for $100.00= -$25.00

Joe Riggs (+220) vs Chris Camozzi $50.00 for $110.00= -$50.00
Joe Riggs scorecards = no action (+209) $50.00 for $104.50= -$50.00
Joe Riggs wins by 3 round decision (+420) $40.00 for $168.00= -$40.00
Chris Camozzi wins by TKO/KO (+360) $35.00 for $126.00= $126.00

James Krause (-145) vs Shane Campbell $72.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Shane Campbell Live In-Play (+480) vs James Krause $25.00 for $120.00= -$25.00
James Krause/Shane Campbell Over 2½ (-101) $40.40 for $40.00= $40.00
Shane Campbell wins by 3 round decision (+290) $50.00 for $145.00= -$50.00

Alex Garcia/Sean Strickland Over 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Sean Strickland Live In-Play (-180) vs Alex Garcia $90.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Sean Strickland Live In-Play (-150) vs Alex Garcia $75.00 for $50.00= $50.00

Oluwale Bamgbose (+145) vs Daniel Sarafian $50.00 for $72.50= $72.50
Oluwale Bamgbose/Daniel Sarafian won’t start round 3 (-277) $138.50 for $50.00= $50.00

Anthony Smith (-136) vs Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes $136.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Anthony Smith wins by TKO/KO (+330) $35.00 for $115.50= -$35.00
Anthony Smith/Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes Under 1½ (+138) $50.00 for $69.00= -$50.00
Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes Live In-Play (+500) vs Anthony Smith $40.00 for $200.00 = -$40.00

Nathan Coy (+235) vs Jonavin Webb $40.00 for $94.00= $94.00
Nathan Coy Live In-Play (-215) vs Jonavin Webb $107.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Nathan Coy wins by 3 round decision (+330) $25.00 for $82.50= $82.50

Marion Reneau (-175) vs Ashlee Evans-Smith $175.00 for $100.00= -$175.00
Marion Reneau wins inside distance (+155) $40.00 for $62.00= -$40.00
Marion Reneau wins by submission (+300) $25.00 for $75.00= -$25.00
Ashlee Evans-Smith wins by 3 round decision (+400) $25.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Lauren Murphy -3½ points (-145) vs Kelly Faszholz $72.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Lauren Murphy wins in round 2 (+749) vs Kelly Faszholz $10.00 for $74.90= -$10.00
Lauren Murphy wins in round 3 (+1198) vs Kelly Faszholz $10.00 for $119.80= $119.80
Lauren Murphy/Kelly Faszholz Under 2½ (+217) $40.00 for $86.80= -$40.00

Anthony Hamilton (+115) vs Shamil Abdurahimov $50.00 for $57.50= -$50.00
Anthony Hamilton/Shamil Abdurahimov Over 1½ (-106) $53.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Anthony Hamilton wins by 3 round decision (+550) $25.00 for $137.50= -$25.00

Donald Cerrone/Alex Oliveira FOTN award winner (+250) $20.00 for $50.00= -$20.00
-----
Total Profit= $450.80

 

ufn 83Net: -77.09
cerrone -260: 520 for 200 / cerrone ITD: 30 parlays / DEC: 40 for 100 / RD 3: 15 for 89.85 / oliveira RD 1: 15 for 175.80 / oliveira RD 2: 10 for 154.10
brunson ITD: 108 for 100
mendes SUB: 50 for 445 - 15 parlays / NOT garbrandt ITD: 79.50 for 50
kawajiri +193: 110 for 212 / kawajiri DEC: 33 for 148.50 - 15 parlays / kawajiri ITD: 25 for 200 / kawajiri +3.5: 67 for 107.20 / RD 3: 12 for 96 / o2.5: 30 parlays
riggs DEC: 50 for 187.50 - 15 parlays / camozzi rd 3: 10 for 112.50 / camozzi no scorecards: 100 parlays
krause -155: 155 for 100 / krause sub: 15 parlays / krause no scorecards: 300 for 200 / U2.5: 50 for 62.50 / campbell DEC: 25 for 103.75
strickland -147: 440 for 300 / strickland DEC: 50 for 173 / RD 3: 8 for 110 / O2.5: 203.50 for 150 - 30 parlays
sarafian -138: 275.80 for 200 / sarafian ITD: 99 for 70.50 / U1.5: 30 parlays
guimares +358: 125 for 447.50 / U2.5: 91.25 for 75 / U2.0: 59.50 for 50 - 30 parlays / U1.0: 15 parlays / smith KO: 15 for 97.50
webb SUB: 25 for 107.50 - 15 parlays / webb no scorecards: 50 parlay / O2.5: 30 parlays
reneau -185: 92.50 for 50 / reneau SUB: 50 for 160 - 15 parlays
murphy RD 2: 25 for 181.25 / murphy RD 3: 15 for 198.75 / murphy no scorecards: 50 parlay
hamilton +105: 50 for 52.50 / O1.5: 50 for 51 - 30 parlays
props
DEC O6.5: 30 for 64.20
DEC O7.5: 6 for 31.44
DEC O8.5: 2 for 28.56
DEC O9.5: 1 for 48.75
DEC O10.5: 1 for 250
FOTN: cowboy-cowboy: 25 for 62.50
FOTN: campbell-krause: 12.50 for 62.50
parlays
50 for 38.49 camozzi no scorecards -272 & murphy no scorecards -340
50 for (paid +18.38) 33.58 camozzi no scorecards -272 & webb no scorecards -450
35 RR for 3,401.14: mendesSUB/ kawaDEC/ riggsDEC/ krauseSUB/ smithguimRD1/ webbSUB/ reneauSUB
52.50 RR for (paid +144.14) 420.95: cerroneITD/ kawabermO2.5/ garciastrickO2.5/ bamsaraU1.5/smithguimU2.0/coywebbO2.5/ shamilabdurO1.5
---

die in a fire:
mario yamasaki (mendes)
sarafian (myself for betting too much)
krause for not finishing (myself for getting too creative and barely making any money off of this fight even tho i risked a ton)
guimares (how do you NOT finish smith there, my god.)
refs (reneau)
UFC bonus committee (krause-campbell got robbed)

guimares-smith going to the third round cost me almost 300 on the RR, too.

BLEEEEECCCCHHHHHHHHHH.

thank goodness i nailed strickland fight. that was my saving grace tonight.

terrible that i was huge on cerrone and krause prefight and barely won shit on either of them.

so disappointed. yea yea, could be worse. but i don't spend this much time to break freakin even.

 

Prematch total: +11,9units
Screwed around with livebetting, would have been up +16 total if the cowboys lasted 1 round.
Lost about 1,5 units live.

Congrats to everyone!!

 

Ended up in profit. Not seen the early prelim fights but Murphy did it for me I guess. In hindsight I'm happy with pretty much all my bets (Riggs aside), even the losing ones. Can't speak for the Hamilton/Murphy/Renau fights but I think I was one of the few guys on Coy before the fight (though still managed to lose the fight), felt like I had a good read on that in terms of expecting it to be a close fight - I should have done just Coy by decision probably (or as well as SD) but I didn't expect Webb to wilt as much. Perhaps I got greedy but the bet made sense to me in terms of odds and still does I think; was expecting a close decision win and getting +900 for one of the scorecards to go the other way, I think it was worth the risk to specify given the odds even if it didn't pay off, maybe next time cover a normal decision as well as a small punt on the SD method.

If they rematched next card I'd probably still have done the same bets in the Smith/Guimares fight. Don't think many looked at that expecting it to go to the distance and watching the fight play out I think a lot of times if the same match-up was made they would come off. Same with Strickland decision and Krause submission - both came very close to hitting (I was impressed by Campbells submission defence, a lot better than I expected). Not too disappointed with the Bermudez bets either, he was in total control those last 2 rounds but didn't seem to want to overcommit for a finish in case it left him exposed, fair enough I guess on the back of 2 losses. Still though I think he could have potentially finished Kawajiri and I don't regret the bets given the odds.

But yeah, I feel like it's only the Riggs fight I was way off on. Ended up in profit overall and despite losing quite a few prop bets, the majority of them after watching the fight I still think they were good bets in terms of the logic behind them and the type of bets compared to how the fights actually played off. They may not have come in, but I felt I had a good read on them prefight which is good to know as opposed to losing but being miles off in terms of how the fights played out.