Look at Nate's record vs strikers. He loses to grapplers who play a loose guard game for a boring decision win. Franca's the only one to catch him in a sub. Gonna be tough for Conor to maintain such a high output for 5 rounds. Diaz doesn't gas. I guess he could surprise him like Thomson did, but Conor doesn't kick for power, he kicks for distance.
I regard Conor's boxing very highly in the context of mma, so I believe he can do it, but it's a tough match-up, a tougher one than many grapplers since Conor can defend TD's and can get back to his feet.
This here is trying to outbox a bigger framed top fighter who doesn't gas, is very durable, can box himself and is great on the mat. Comes down to Conor's cardio.