Why is Poirier the favorite at the bookmakers?

Chandler ‘s only managed to beat 2 people in the UFC and their combined record for their last 10 fights is 1-9. Chandler , like Tony (one of the people he beat ) is just a name now and a shell of what he once was.
 
ImNotMirsadBektic said:
1, no, but usually I don't create threads for it, unless I think they are quite obviously wrong (which I think is the case here)
2, i would say i am more often than not right in those scenarios, but it still makes a good thread for discussion lol.
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Because odds have nothing to do with who's going to win. Bookmakers shift the line to encourage betting so at the end of the day they get even betting on both sides and make their 10% profit.

Popularity means more than who is actually the better fighter. That's what Belal Muhammad beat the shit out of Sean Brady or Dariush over Gamrot. Despite being the better more accomplished and proven fighters the vets were both underdogs because the public wanted the young guys to win thus they put their money on them pushing the line and making them the favorites.

TLDR - the line doesn't tell you who is supposed to win. It tells you who Casual Joe Public THINKS is going to win. A professional bettor weigh the the differences and play the edge. To see who bookmakers think is going to win see the opening lines and rate those. But once the public starts making bets the books shift the line to guarantee they get their 10%.
 
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Corrado Soprano said:
Chandler is a human punching bag. He literally leaves himself open for strikes and invites punches/kicks to the head. The man acts like CTE doesn't exist. Porier may be a dis-interesting personality with a boring style, but he still has power.
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Uncle June's finally lost it.
 
Safton said:
No? They're fighting on the undercard at UFC 281. It's not even the Co-Main. Dustin tried to negotiate for five rounds but failed.
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That makes a world of difference too. I could see Chandler taking the first round. Dustin is a slow starter and I scored the first rounds for Chandler against Gaethje and Olivera. He’s a tall order before the fatigue sets in. The kicks compliment the heavy hands, I wish he would mix in takedowns early, but it was smart getting a 3 rounder instead of 5!
 
CedricBee said:
That makes a world of difference too. I could see Chandler taking the first round. Dustin is a slow starter and I scored the first rounds for Chandler against Gaethje and Olivera. He’s a tall order before the fatigue sets in. The kicks compliment the heavy hands, I wish he would mix in takedowns early, but it was smart getting a 3 rounder instead of 5!
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Agreed. It's why I think this fight is closer than people imagine. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where his explosiveness (versus Dustin's relatively slow starting) wins him Round 1 as he sort of falls back on his wrestling to survive late.

I still think Dustin has more upside, but I only favor him by about 60-70% or so at most.
 
Poirier doesn't get knocked out. (Or very rarely at least).
In a firefight Chandler is going down. TKO or KO.
 
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Dustin has super clean powerful boxing and has good head movement and philly shell defense. He can out strike a lot of guys
 
Imo Poirier is still a very competent fighter that shouldn't be underestimated. I'd like to see him fight as often as possible BTW.
 
Chandler has bad defense then so does Poirier

Poirier has been in wars against Dan Hooker, Max, Eddie etc
 
Chandler only chance is by Knockout. Other than that Poirier is better everywhere. Chandler is very overrated at the moment, he hasn't impressed me in his UFC run, yes he's fun to watch, but fun to watch doesn't entirely equal to being skilled.
 
ImNotMirsadBektic said:
I don't get it, he doesn't have the TDD of Gaethje to make it a standing affair. Chandler will be able to take him down and if Chandler did well against Oliveira on the ground what does he have to fear about Poiriers bottom game? And even in the striking exchanges before he gets the takedown I can see him do alright, he has unorthodox strikes (the front kick KO..) and is explosive. Like in what fashion can Poirier win? I guess by not getting finished on the ground and waiting for his KO/TKO oppertunity in the stand up when(/if) Chandler gasses in the later rounds?
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You realize that the only time Chandler has attempted a legitimate takedown in the UFC was against an absolute washed Tony Ferguson, after being rocked by the aforementioned washed Toby Ferguson?

Poirer is the rightful favorite here, Chandler's only wins inside the octagon are Dan Hooker and washed Tony.
 
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Natty and ready to prove sherdog wrong
 
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